So writes Obama backer Chris Bowers at Open Left, but I am not entirely convinced.
Bowers notes that McCain and the RNC have more money on hand, and are raising money at a faster rate, than Obama and the DNC. Ed Morrissey noticed this also. But I wonder whether that reflects the fact that McCain has been able to move into a general election posture ahead of Obama.
Bowers notes that in averaging national polls, Pollster.com currently shows Obama narrowly ahead of McCain, 45.4%-44.3%, while Obama’s narrow lead in his analysis of state polls is “built on the unlikely swing states of Indiana, Nebraska-01, Nebraska-02, North Dakota, and South Carolina.” The left-leaning HominidViews currently gives McCain the edge in its Monte Carlo simulations based on state polls. InTrade currently gives McCain a mere 38.6% chance of winning. Yet the odds of the US currently going into a recession in 2008 are currently only pegged at 34%, which makes me wonder what is going on at InTrade.
Bowers also discusses whether his analysis is compatible with “the overwhelmingly pro-Democratic mood in the country,” which was discussed here at pw a bit yesterday. There was also a bit on the overall mood in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, with an interesting factoid: the remaining primaries do not have enough eligible voters left to break the 1972 turnout record. Of course, 1972 was not exactly a banner year for the Democratic nominee, but high primary turnout in the 2004 primaries translated to a close race in the general election. Currently, this year could still fall into the 16-year cycle of “change†elections, which has elected a Democrat narrowly in 1960, 1976 and 1992.
Bowers does not really consider Obama’s organizational tools and skills, which could be decisive in a close race. I might agree with Bowers that Obama should not be considered favored to win, but I would not favor McCain to win at this juncture, either.
Update: Allah-lanche for my hobbyhorse!
They’re probably looking at stuff like this.
But if it’s Obama v. McCain, I pick the old man to win, on the issues. The debates will be delightful.
Never misunderestimate those community organizers.
Look how far those community organizers can go with barely any experience.
I know I get repeaty, but for real I think that the media’s penchant for playing like we’re in a recession and manufacturing catastrophish wackiness works against Baracky. Enough with the changey, we like the normal guy is what people will think. You say you want a revolution, um, no, I was thinking more like getting a Wii Fit not so much signing up for a mandatory government health program modeled after the one in Cuba, thank you though. You’re very symmetrical and clean I think.
I detect none of Karl’s normal sour bent toward Obama.
OK kidnappers, how much ransom you askin’?
Yes. Obama didn’t do well against Hillary in that last debate. I think McCain is going to eat him alive on the issues.
Not to mention Wright (the gift that keeps on giving), Rezko, and Ayers/Dohrn.
Also, O can’t be viewing the recent (and generally good) news out of Iraq with much pleasure.
Spies – The Dem that wins will simply declare victory on the back of the Bush administration successes, and bring them home.
Spies: the Iraq question may end up being the most important one of all.
Based upon some recent mediocre performances by Maverick (how can you do an interview with Ellen Degeneres and not be prepared to deal with Gay Marraige?) it’s not a given that he’ll mop up Obama in the debates. What may work quite well for him is the Dem’s and Obama’s unchangable imperative to classify him as Bush/squared. Lots of success in Iraq and Afghanistan tempers that vulnerability and the endless clips of Obama not only calling for withdrawal from Iraq but his intention to gut the military makes for bad PR amoungst the bitter, clingy hicks whjo may just decide this election in states like Missouri, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
I think the critics will be nicer than this guy will get ..
Woof.
#6 I think McCain is going to eat him alive on the issues.
I buy into the low information signalling hypothesis. I think the average voter is less policy-oriented than we are here.
Not to mention Wright (the gift that keeps on giving), Rezko, and Ayers/Dohrn.
The information on Wright has already been processed by voters, and is reflected in current polling. Rezco never did manage to stick to Obama, and now the trajectory of that story has moved away from Obama and towards Rove. Ayers and Dohrn have (uncharacteristically) kept their mouths shut, so they will not hurt Obama the way Wright did unless right-wing blogs can find new angles to keep this story alive. I’m puzzled that there hasn’t been more efforts made to do this. Just the Googling that I’ve done suggests that we’ve only seen the tip of the Ayers/Dohr iceberg.
Also, O can’t be viewing the recent (and generally good) news out of Iraq with much pleasure.
Oddly, polling has shown that Iraq has already been neutralized as an issue in this election. The 2004 election was the Dems’ big chance to capitalize on unhappiness about Iraq, and we know how that worked out for them.
I’m not a polling guy. I don’t follow them, and they do not affect my views on politics, so I usually don’t care about the numbers. Maybe Karl can answer this question that came to my while reading this post, though: It seems like the gap between Obama and McCain is within the statistical margin of error for most polls. Wouldn’t that tend to favor McCain, since Obama’s numbers have occasionally seemed to be inflated by unreconstructed racists lying to the pollsters? In this scenario, McCain gets more than the usual number of Democratic defectors, after these dems have promised the pollsters that they will support the party nominee.
I dunno… I think the McCain campaign hasn’t been hitting on the Wright/Rezko/Ayers stuff much because they’ve been content to watch the fratricide in the Dem primary.
Once Obama becomes the Officially Anointed One, I think that’s going to change.
We’ll see, I guess.
There’s not much point in taking stabs at O!, since Hillary is doing that job just fine for now. Besides, McCain’s pacing himself. Because HE’S OLD. Really, I swear. I just read it.
Aldo,
There could be a Bradley effect, and it could show up in states O! needs, like MI and PA. OTOH, we don’t know whether O!’s state-of-the-art social networking will pay dividends in turning out new O! voters, either. That’s why I don’t think either candidate should be favored currently.
As for Rezko, the jury is literally still out. If he’s convicted, Obama has another Rezko news cycle ahead of him.
The real campaign has a lot more light on it than the primary, also. Most of these issues aren’t as over as they appear.
The real campaign has a lot more light on it than the primary, also. Most of these issues aren’t as over as they appear.
I hear you, and I agree with you on all of them except Wright. I don’t think that Wright is “over.” The analogy I would make is to some big financial cataclism. The market makes a correction, and the new share prices reflect investors’ collective judgement.
I think that anyone who might vote in the general election has heard about Wright now, Obama’s popularity has taken a hit for it, and O!’s current polling numbers reflect the voters’ collective judgement. I doubt that hammering on this issue further will hurt Obama any more. It might just backfire. McCain is already up against a MSM that will frame every issue to Obama’s advantage. The media spin will be: O! has already denounced Wright. What more does McCain want? A pound of flesh?
There are two or three other things that work against McCain.
1. As much as Obama’s campaign is likely to be well-organized, it is pretty likely that McCain’s campaign is going to be poorly organized.
2. There is a decent chance that McCain’s campaign could totally collapse. McCain’s already had one near-death experience over rumors of him sleeping around. There’s other ways he could screw it up as well–one too many flip flops, losing his temper in a big way, revelations about corrupt lobbying connections, etc.
3. The right-wing could lose their limited patience with McCain and turn against him for good. That would kill his campaign as well.
I can see McCain having a shot at overcoming the war, economy, and anti-Republican bias if he keeps his cool and conducts himself in a mature way. But I think McCain will ultimately crack and that Obama will win comfortably.
That would be exactly three things, perfesser.
No, sweetie. That was the New York Times you heard choking. You may be the only person on earth who bit on that hook.
I’ll put old people, moderates, and Jews up against feminists, radicals, and blacks any day as coalitions for winning elections (this presumes McCain-Lieberman and Obama-Clinton tickets, take away Clinton as VP and he’s got even less of a shot).
OTOH, we don’t know whether O!’s state-of-the-art social networking will pay dividends in turning out new O! voters, either.
If the other thing is the “Bradley effect” this must be the “Nishi effect.”
A lot is going to happen between Now and November, and I think most Americans are smarter that they’re given credit for: McCain wins in a landslide.
Let me put it this way: If, as we’ve been asserting for the last umpteen months, Obama is a radical representing the fringe Left, he does not represent most thinking American voters. Therefore, he will be whipped on election day.
Let us pray.
I think Barry is in trouble with the States in the Middle. (There’s 7 extra ones in there somewhere.)
But this surprises me: “Bowers notes that McCain and the RNC have more money on hand, and are raising money at a faster rate, than Obama and the DNC.”
It seems to me they’re having a woeful time attracting money from rank-and-file Reagan-style conservatives–the kinds of people who filled the coffers in past years $10 and $20 at a time. Provided Bowers is right, where’s the money coming from?
Provided Bowers is right, where’s the money coming from?
http://tinyurl.com/3sha5p
[…] right, here’s a substantive reason for why Obama will win: organization. This is Karl’s hobbyhorse, that the media overlooks the effect of nuts and bolts GOTV efforts for sexier angles about race […]