Whether it is Gallup, Pew, or Rasmussen, Indiana, North Carolina or even New Hampshire, the polling trends are not good for Barack Obama at the moment. Former DNC chairman (and superdelegate) Joe Andrew flips from Hillary Clinton to Obama because he thinks the protracted campaign is dividing the party. I find myself agreeing with TPM’s Josh Marshall that Andrew is not that big a “get,” but Allahpundit agrees with a theory at The Corner:
[A] late Hillary surge might force superdelegates out of the woodwork and, paradoxically, into declaring for Obama. They’re worried about the race dragging on and the better she does, the more likely that is to happen. Coming out for him when he’s in trouble is thus a way to blunt her momentum, essentially telling her, “Unless you win every remaining primary 80/20 he’s going to be the nominee, so you might as well drop out.†Keep it up, boys. The earlier she’s pushed out, the sore-r that sore loser contigent of hers is going to be.
Joe Andrew might be totally right about the divisiveness of the campaign (though I suspect the Dems will largely heal up for the general election). But Joe Andrew is not going to force Clinton out of the race. This has become a campaign of demographics more than one of momentum (NC being the possible exception). Kentucky and West Virginia beckon to Clinton.
Barack Obama is not going to force Hillary Clinton out of the race. Hillary Clinton has more delegates than any second-place candidate ever. Jesse Jackson was not forced out in 1988. Hillary Clinton will stay in for as long as she wants. And the polls give her no incentive to abandon her popular vote argument.
I’m sure that the bulk of her supporters will go for Obama once all this unpleasantness has ceased, but I think that more than usual will switch sides. If you look around at the lefty blogs, you’ll see that Hillary supporters are being treated about as well as Bush supporters at this point. Think of the umbrage we take at such, and we have no expectation of being treated well up front. I suspect that most Hilllary supporters have at least some sense of dignity, and that being the case, a great many of them will cross the aisle. Barack, or shall we say “Puff”, should very well suffer what another Hillary supporter termed “The Great Unraveling”.
I think in a week, we will see that Obama’s stopped the bleeding, with the help of the MSM. Still, it’s going to be razor thin.
Have y’all seen this bit of fuckheadedness yet?http://firedoglake.com/2008/05/01/mccain-in-the-membrane/
The douchenozzles at firedoglake are crowing about how some supposed random guy – who is “found out a Baptist minister” *gasp*- in the audience at a McCain town hall event asked him if he had ever called his wife a cunt as alleged.
It turns out the assclown is a former Biden campaign staffer.
Could these people get any douchier?
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The soreness of the losers will only increase the closer it gets to the convention. If Obama has enough superdelegates to mercy-kill Clinton’s nomination now, he should pull the trigger. If he had them a month ago, he should have done it then.
If it’s going to be Obama, it would be best for the party to declare him the winner right away. But I have a feeling that it’s going to be Clinton, or at least that it will be very close.
Franky, I dont see either Dems winning in the November General, but that really doesnt matter. More importantly, whoever loses is still in the Senate. Want to place bets on who has the biggest fist? Dems hoping for an Obamasm ignore the wrath of a womyn scorned. Given such, Hill could be the GOP nominee in 2012. (hey now, you guys did nominate McCain this time around…)
I’m more and more liking the culmination of including the superdelegate vote with neither candidate having the required delegates for nomination. It’s just the trend of the last few elections reaching its logical conclusion. Welcome to the Dem USA: Splitsville.
Things are different now though. Baracky has a lot punctured the whole thought balloon of him bestriding Washington with his unassailable Hope and implacable Change I think. His own minister dissed him to where he was all indignant. When he realizes he ain’t no icon of positivity no more he’ll go really quite negative on McCain, you watch. The alchemy what he needs is to convert passions for him and Hillary into contempt for John McCain. Dan’s right that the media is a lot key.
What’s scary is the extent to which Baracky has learned he can count on his media friends. Jeremiah is everyblackman! Jeremiah is a hatey freak! Whatever you say Mister Obama. We jess do what we tole.
With this kind of insanity already brewing, I think the Convention being a total fiasco is a lock. I seriously wonder if there is going to be a Party left after November.
http://www.recreate68.org/
http://radioequalizer.blogspot.com/2008/04/air-americas-roseanne-barr-wants-1968.html
Hey Karl… for some reason a link I’m trying to post won’t go through. Give me a quick shout at greyravyn @ amaonline.com
Gleen(s) has the moonbat pack in a frothy tizzy attacking Brian Williams over at MSNBC (The Daily Nightly Blog)and I wanted to shoot you the link to get your take.
dewclaw, you can tinyurl it. that’s what I do when links don’t work.
Dewclaw,
Sorry I didn’t respond promptly. Truth is, one the site came back up today, I put this on a timer and went to see Iron Man.
As it turns out, I already saw the Gleen(s) post on Williams. It’s part of his effort to put a spotlight on the military analysts story. My primary thought is that this a comically doomed effort on his part, because — for the people for whom the story matters — the media are at least as culpable, if not moreso, than the analysts or the DoD. So pretty frickin’ obvious the MSM is not going to make a big deal out of it. As to Williams specifically, his background is certainly not VRWC, so it says something that he was defending his analysts on the merits. That it prolly made GiGi’s head extra-splodey is a bonus.
so, did you like Iron Man? we saw it too. RTO was pleased with it.
I think that no matter how crazy anyone says it will get between now and November they will be underestimating the extent of insanity we are in for. Pass the popcorn!
If I lived in Denver I’d be planning my vacation around the convention.
Also, I think hiring a squad of returned Vets to house sit my home and/or business while I was gone would be in order. I doubt we’ll see many exterior shots of downtown Denver during the convention itself. It will probably look like Daytona Beach before a hurricane. Plywood and padlocks have their own ambiance.
It’s going to come down to the super delegates, and overwhelmingly those that are elected know that they can’t win locally without that 80% black turnout. They’ll nominate Obama, boot the general, and blame Obama’s loss on racism.
It’s a tough call, because Obama is a confirmed rookie, and The Dem’s have discovered what those of us on the right have known all along.
The Clinton’s are carnivores, and will do absolutely ANYTHING, and stick whatever they need up ANYBODY’S ass to regain the White House.
But what appears to be happening is that the people who have been scared to death of them for years, are now flipping them the bird, because they are realizing that everybody else hates them, too, and they have no power without the presidency.
It is amusing to watch these two idiot dickheads trying to steamroll people, when they don’t have a steamroller anymore. And it seems even funnier that Bill is the one that drove the steamroller off the cliff.
But, Jeebus! Obama? What the **** (I am trying to clean up my act here, so take a guess at what I said there) is wrong with the left?
I find it hard to believe that the Dems are poised to nominate an obvious Marxist.
Changey, hopey?
Yeah. I’ll bite on that one…because I am just so F’ing government schooled STUPID!
For O to win the nomination, he’ll have to pry the last Super Delegate from Hillary’s cold dead hands. OTH, if Hillary suckerpunches O and wins the nomination there will be a serious shitstorm in the Democratic Party. As I’ve said before anyone living in Denver might wise to increase their homeowners insurance and plan on being out of town during the convention
I find it hard to believe that the Dems are poised to nominate an obvious Marxist.
The fixer in the process is Marx being a champaign super nova delegate, which really isn’t democratic at all.
I imagine James Carville is cleaning his 12-gauge mumbling, “and just who is the Judas gopher’s best friend? That’s right! The friendly rabbit. Freeze Judas!”
Sunday – End All Occupations at Home and Abroad
That one would be tricky. “Yankee Go Home! And you can’t stay there either!”
Schadenfreude is a dish best served microwaved, and covered with Hershey’s syrup and whipped cream.
I thought the Sara Lee brand Schadenfreude from the freezer section was okay, but the bakery at my local Kroger makes the best I’ve ever had.
FWIW – Joe Andrews is a Hoosier and a certifiable douchenozzle, and a midget too.
JD: Clown Makeup?
If Hillary has enough delegates to get a poison pill into the platform, something that the nutroots salivate for but that the rest of the country would vomit out, I think she would enjoy putting Obama in the position of having to affirm it or disavow it. Since Obama’s political training is Chicago Democrat, his (and Michelle’s) determination of his response will be interesting.
And looking forward to the weird sensation of voting in a Democrat primary on Tuesday, first time in about 25 years. Not choosing for electability, except inversely, I promise.
Sunday – End All Occupations at Home and Abroad
Monday – Human Rights/Free All Political Prisoners
Tuesday – No Borders
Wednesday – No Warming
Thursday – No Racism/Imperialism
Hmm… shouldn’t they be holding these in Beijing?