Regular PW visitors know that one of my recurring themes is that laypeople often interpret public opinion polls far too literally, with an under-appreciation of how much art there is mixed with the science involved in polling. Indeed, I have noted that election polling, where there are often multiple polls with different results, makes for excellent case studies in how differences in polling methods can affect the results. The following example is even more interesting, as it involves a single polling firm.
Survey USA conducted two separate polls in the state of Indiana in the past week, one for SUSA’s TV-news clients and one for Indiana University Purdue University Fort Wayne. The TV poll gave Hillary Clinton a 16% lead over Barack Obama. The University poll gives Obama a 5% lead.  At the second link, SUSA’s Jay Leve explains the methodological differences between the polls and what may or may not explain the differences in presidential preference on the two surveys.
Those interested reading more on the types of arguments pollsters have over the differing methods outlined by Leve may want to read what Mark Blumenthal wrote at Pollster.com about the uncertainty of the pre-primary polls in South Carolina.
Polls. The only poll that ain’t greased is the brass pole.
Jeff said he didn’t have a horse in this race. I don’t get that cause he gets all excited about those Rockies people and that’s just a sports franchise that really is just a collective marketing effort that’s essentially completely devoid of any meaning whatsoever but that which he really a lot chooses to invest it with. These are my thoughts on a Friday evening in April, at least before I’ve had dinner but that’s cause I ate a really big lunch that Mexican place I really like so I’m not really sure I’m gonna fix anything except maybe blend these strawberries up with some nonfat kefir. So there’s that.
*at* that Mexican place … the one in the strip mall next to the yogurt place … I really didn’t need the yogurt but I’ve kind of been on a yogurt kick lately … it’s sort of a fad here of late where you serve your own and they have toppings etc. and then they weigh it and you pay by the ounce but it’s always like $4.50 it seems no matter what you do. Maybe that’s just me. I just need 4 more stamps on my little card before I get a free one though.
Can I have a show of hands for straberry yogurt topped with nuts.
Oh. Flavors are out. You can maybe get chocolate but it’ll just be sort of vaguely labeled “gourmet” and usually a coffee one and then something maybe like “pomegranate” … but it’s more stuff like “tangy” or “soy” or “soy protein” … I don’t really get it, and I have a lot of trouble telling the difference. My favorite is soy with whitechocolatechips and butterfingercrumblystuff. But I’d go for strawberry and nuts too. I’m kind of promiscuous about my yogurt.
What are the actual numbers? Perhaps splitting the difference between the polls produces a better result:
SUSA: Hillary 55, Obama 39
IPFW: Hillary 45, Obama 50
Totals: Hillary 100, Obama 89
Split the difference: Hillary 50, Obama 44.5
This suggests, to me anyway, that Hillary currently has an actual lead of 5-6 points. Accordingly, if Obama has any more weeks like this past one, Hillary will win by several points in Indiana…and that won’t be good for Prince Charming.
Baracky come lately, the new kid in town
Everybody loves you, so don’t let them down
I was debating who would I vote for and after watching this week the story of the Presidential Candidates thru CNN..I was so at ahh with Hillary Clinton wow, she is truly impressive and I truly think the media has really given her a bad rap. For the First Time have a seen a fair story and it was from CNN..Hillary is very impressive and truly respect this All American Lady. I say all American becasue I would never vote for Obama for I feel his association with the Shady Characters he finds time to be his friends. I was appauled in watching his Mentor of Twenty Years and when he said that after Twenty years of a very close relationship like being his mentor and making him the religious advisor and insprational mentor in his campaign it truely made me take a double take. The bottom line is that our Future President should not have any type of Anti-American Association. I must comment on the last debate. Obama’s studdering and the numeous ah ah ah’s were concerning for when he could answer he demonstrated lack of self control to the point of his actions seemed very unconfortable. His refering to mistakes as “Screw up” was very non presidential, his attacks on Hillary of “Backing Cookies” was very condecending. His Comments about the less fortuante Americans about “clinging” to thier religion, Guns and other was very condecending and aloof. He seems to have the attitude that he is bettere than most. I think that he critized most of America’s situation was insulting specially talking to people that re the Elite citizens of San Francisco puting us all down. His actions of brushing off his shoulders when refering to the questions that he could not answer so that the people would think he did not care. He reminded me of His Mentor Wright. I just don’t understand how people could even think of Obama as our President. I truly hope that as time goes by more of his true self will come out and people will stop drinking the Kool aid that he puts out there. I think he is very shrewed and has used every card he had to manipulate the people that are so desperate for change…however is this the change we want? A man that associates himself with people that have tried and succeded hurting America? I am sorry, if I can leave anything to my country, family, friends and neighbors is not being responsible for the nomination of an Anti-American such as Obama..I feel it in my hear..Obama will only bring us Despair!
The stat buttons on my TI 84 all say Obama is it. “It matters not”, except if you’re into manufactured drama.
O!
Hill has really ramped up her advertising here in Indiana recently. Up until this week, Hillary had not actually appeared in her ads, they were all Se. Bayh talkimg about Hillary. She appears in her own in her new ones, so her numbers are likely to fall.
You would think that the drive-by copy and pasters would run spell check every now and then. And, quit lying.
It’s been like that for awhile I think though, thor. But Democrats are a lot into manufactured drama. That one lady is Bill Clinton’s wife. And also the media is heavily involved. Maureen Dowd has been actually like the sedate and measured one a lot this cycle. Well, except for Jeff, and he’s a lot doing the pox on all the houses thing. That’s from Shakespeare, more or less. Which brings us back to the manufactured drama. I don’t really see how you can hope to escape it.
– If the people that actually go to the voting booths on election day were as theoretical as 95% of the Lefts political silliness, they’d be all set.
Hf, Hillary is in my manufactured nightmares.
She’s roadkill now though. Except for she’ll be haunting the Senate for at least a decade more I guess. On the other hand though she may not be a super-reliable vote when it comes to NPR funding anymore. Hah. She really found out who her friends were, that one. Chelsea, mostly.
Incomes of candidates for 2007:
– McCain – $533,000
– Obama – $4.4M
– Clintons – 20.4M
– Spot the non-class warfare candidate. Come on, we know you can do it.
HF –
“Comment by happyfeet on 4/18 @ 7:58 pm #
Jeff said he didn’t have a horse in this race. I don’t get that cause he gets all excited about those Rockies people and that’s just a sports franchise that really is just a collective marketing effort that’s essentially completely devoid of any meaning whatsoever but that which he really a lot chooses to invest it with. These are my thoughts on a Friday evening in April, at least before I’ve had dinner but that’s cause I ate a really big lunch that Mexican place I really like so I’m not really sure I’m gonna fix anything except maybe blend these strawberries up with some nonfat kefir. So there’s that.”
I am always impressed with your posts, but I was wondering, after reading this post, if you had some Adderol for desert?
No. It’s something what starts with a Z I can’t remember. Big blue pills what NG gave me cause I had a really big lunch and I was worried about staying awake in the office cause my boss had the a/c set kind of high and it makes me really sleepy. Good catch though.
Zippertrol?
Hehehehehe.
– At this point, since both sides have managed to get their “versions” of reality published in the form of rigged polls, and perception flogging ledes like the one the good Proggs at Yahoo central banged out this morning, we now return you to your regular scheduled program of waiting to see what actually happens on voting day.
– As best as can be determined the pratfalls from both camps has had little to no effect on dragging voters over from either side, with the god-botherering hicks firmly in hate for both groups. Hill-minx still appears to hold a slight lead, which means that after Penn. the circus will continue apace.
– Gold embossed place cards for the tables at the convention are in preparation with the singular message painted in 3 inch red letters – “Fuck you and your asshole candidate, because I’m not changing my vote.”
– This amusement has no end.
“shrewed”! we’re all getting shrewed.
We’ve got the little ol’ gnome cackaling away laughing at his detractors in the bloggosphere while his Senate g/f is Shrewing the opposition party.
It’s all Moynihan’s Fault. Bastard. He gave us David Stockman and then near his death gave the Senate seat to Hillary. He had a style very similar to william f. buckley even if a sometimes liberal Democrat. Hillary also like Obama had only token opposition from weak Republican candidates even though she was truly a carpetbagger to NY.
careful with the Zoloft or Xanax. blue pills are the heavy dose ones! wtf…not for recreational use dude…ditto for Xanax. but could be some other blue pill?
“shrewed”! we’re all getting shrewed.
We’ve got the little ol’ gnome cackaling away laughing at his detractors in the bloggosphere while his Senate g/f is Shrewing the opposition party.
It’s all Moynihan’s Fault. Bastard. He gave us David Stockman and then near his death gave the Senate seat to Hillary. He had a style very similar to william f. buckley even if a sometimes liberal Democrat. Hillary also like Obama had only token opposition from weak Republican candidates even though she was truly a carpetbagger to NY.
zoloft
NG?
Here’s a link to the National Council on Public Poll’s website.
http://www.ncpp.org/
voteresponsibly08 –
The only thing impressive about Hillary is that she’s got bigger balls than a rodeo bull.
“I was appauled”
Uh-uh. You were Ru-Paulled (so what if I can’t spell that right?)
AND, you need to learn to take a breath when you are writing. I was out of breath just reading your post…
“- This amusement has no end.”
Thank God for that. Laughing at 7:30 in the morning is way out of character for me, but it is better than bumming out because Megyn is nowhere to be found this early in the morning.
I am really hoping that Obama gets the nod (and I think he will because the left is afraid of what will happen to our cities if he doesn’t), because, by the time the REAL election rolls around, he will be like the meat they scrape off of hooves to make hot dogs.
Vote for “Hot Dog” Obama! I think his running mate will be Nikita Kruschev.
Because of TEH RACISM!
Can’t help it. I feel like a shot of baking soda thrust into a bottle of vinegar.
“Zippertrol?”
Ummmmm… Sounds good to me. Do you think my doctor will know what the real naqme of that stuff is?
Sake is good, but not so much in the early morning when you have to go to work. And I think they’re onto my garlic powder ruse.
Adderol and Hydrocodone. The perfect breakfast…
Now I’m REALLY ready to work on a Saturday.
Last one. I promise. I must have over-eaten at breakfast, or sumpin’.
After perusing my morning posts, I find it hard to believe that I am actually pretty much of a conservative. My dad would kill me for these posts if he were still alive – and still knew how to read.
How embarrassing…
See ya later. Work is beckoning (much to your relief!).
The people most upset with disparity in income are the ones who rake in Big Buck$ for doing nothing.
Indiana has an open primary and whole lot of Republicans – and the Dem machine is so nervous that they’re already blathering on about ‘not letting’ R’s vote on the D ticket. Which is especially rich, considering their opposition to any sort of ID check at the polling locations.
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