On Monday, Marc Ambinder made an observation about the establishment media (though largely valid as to bloggers also) that is by no means novel, but nonetheless worth considering at this juncture in the Democratic campaign:
It’s true that editors like to find the point of conflict in a particular narrative and then base their coverage around that conflict as if it were the narrative itself. One of the reasons why the media jumps into the absurd word games – what did Barack Obama mean by “typical†– what did Bill Clinton mean by “two nominees who love America†– is that the candidates’s words are very easily reduced to the emotional impressions they make on their listeners out of context. All of this falls under the category of normal media coverage. The media spent way too much time on Sam Power and Geraldine Ferraro for this reason. In the former’s case, Power’s comment was newsworthy for a small reason – that an Obama adviser called his opponent a monster – and for a larger reason – it reflects the near-hatred that the two campaigns have for each other personally right now. The media focused on the former and not the latter, because the former was more accessible and easier to explain; it was easier to put Power’s remarks in the context of the daily back and forth between the campaigns about who is nastier and dirtier and harder to focus on why they’ve become so nasty, at least toward each other.
The “why” in this instance is not particularly difficult to explain, having to do primarily with Hillary Clinton’s anger over discovering that she was not “inevitable” and that she has endured decades of personal humiliation in return for a payoff that is now unlikely to come — or may be delayed at best. The narcissism of small differences is also a likely factor. Indeed, the candidates’ general ideological similarity and similar lack of experience are likely factors that keepssteering them into identity politics — race, gender and age are the primary factors distinguishing them.
Moreover, Ambinder misses the point in caring about the “why.” Our Punch-and-Judy media (and this certainly includes large swaths of the Internet) thrives on soap opera and conflict. In the 1990s, the Clintons exploited this dynamic relentlessly and those memories echo through the campaign coverage even now. Some would like to claim the rejection of Hillary Clinton reflects a desire to get beyond soap opera, but the campaign coverage to date easily disproves this hypothesis.ÂÂ
For example, few cared very much about Obama’s church before dramatic video of the Rev. Wright surfaced to drive media coverage. And while Obama’s speech did not really address the underlying issues of his church membership, he will likely skate on it for the remainder of the primaries because the soap opera has ended (for now) with the Rev. Wright’s exit stage Left and an establishment media that believes Obama tied off the storyline with the speech. To them, the story was Obama-Wright, not Obama-Trinity, in part because the personal relationship drove the soap opera. Theology is abstract and decidedly less sexy.
The more interesting point within Ambinder’s post is the way in which we become so focused on each blow that we lose sight of the match.
Stories of the Democratic Party official referring to Clinton’s game plan as the “Tonya Harding option,” of James Carville refusing to apologize for comparing New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to Judas, retired four-star General Merrill “Tony” McPeak accusing Bill Clinton of acting like Joseph McCarthy and questioning Barack Obama’s patriotism, Obama senior adviser Gordon Fischer invoking “Monica’s blue dress†in a blog posting, and so on flash across our screens, are chewed on by bloggers and spat out as the next exchange flies in over the electronic transom. Ambinder may want to ask “why,” but my preferred question is “so what?”
The answer to that question may be found in recent polls from ABC News and Rasmussen on the contest in Pennsylvania. ABC’s Jake Tapper reports:
In a sign of just how divisive and ugly the Democratic fight has gotten, only 53% of Clinton voters say they’ll vote for Obama should he become the nominee. Nineteen percent say they’ll go for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and 13% say they won’t vote.
Sixty percent of Obama voters say they’ll go for Clinton should she win the nomination, with 20% opting for McCain, and three percent saying they won’t vote.
Rasmussen looked from the other end, but got similar results:
If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, just 55% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. That’s down two points from 57%.
If Clinton is the nominee, just 55% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain. That’s down nine points from 64%.
The standard caveats about polls as snapshots and November being an eternity away in politics apply, of course. The venomous passions unleashed by the candidates may cool as Election Day draws nearer. But the effect of the fight ultimately matters more than the zinger of the day. Hillary Clinton has little to no chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, but retains about as much support among Democrats nationally as Barack Obama, and has every incentive to remain in the race through at least May 6 — which makes it nigh-impossible to force her out.  Accordingly, the damaging Democratic soap opera is likely to continue for at least another five weeks.
Update: Gallup now has national numbers — 28% of Clinton supporters indicate that if Clinton is not the nominee — and Obama is — they would support McCain. Conversely, 19% of Obama supporters would support McCain if Obama is not the nominee — and Clinton is.
“Theology is abstract and decidedly less sexy.”
Maybe j-school graduates are stupid.
Too.
I don’t think you could legitimately say “the Press isn’t doing its job”, because there isn’t anything prescriptive about what the Press’s job is.
But it’s damned clear the Press isn’t doing what the Founding Fathers expected them to do, and enshrined free speech to enable.
Regards,
Ric
Oh, the press is doing their job alright. Just like Moose used to do for Emmett.
Well, the kicker to me is that Dems/Libs are nothing if not emotional children. And this coming from me is pretty damning. This means they see what they want to see… they hear only what squares with their wants… how they feel is paramount. Not a whole lot of concern given to reason. Now, why this is the case is a whole other gig… but, what remains is that a child can hold onto a grudge for a very, very long time. When wronged playing in the sandbox, a liberal is a dangerously unforgiving child-like creature. In the end, they feel personally slighted. And I would suggest that this need to win at all costs… the zero-sum game that is the child ego-need-machine cannot be reasoned with. This is more than a little problematic for the libs. And it is contrary in some respects to their overarching philosophy that the ends justify any means.
– Ok, someone asked Chelsea at a town meeting or something, “what about the Lewinski affair of your Dad”. Her reply: “None of your beeswax”.
– Good answer, but its obvious this Donky death match is not going to let up for a minute.
[…] also true, however, that the Democrat candidates have lately given us much more to talk about and to make fun of than has McQueeg. And those of us who hold us in contempt for making our peace (presumably) with […]
Ric,
I don’t think you could legitimately say “the Press isn’t doing its jobâ€Â, because there isn’t anything prescriptive about what the Press’s job is.
If their job is to enlighten and inform, I think we’re in agreement that they’re doing a pitifully poor job of it. If their job is to deliver eyeballs to advertisers, I think we can agree that they’re doing very poorly on that front, as well.
That being said, if their job is to provide fodder for the rest of us to point and laugh at, I’d say they’re doing fantastically. I do take your point, though, that the Founders probably didn’t write the First Amendment so that there would be a Gracie for our collective George.
Ok, someone asked Chelsea at a town meeting or something, “what about the Lewinski affair of your Dadâ€Â. Her reply: “None of your beeswaxâ€Â.
BBH – That was here in Indiana. One of those cringe inducing moments, to be sure.
Those who are interested in politics and the horse-race will know all about these things – the Bosnian snipers, Trinty Church, etc – and it will be old news to them. But the bulk of the voters who are barely cognizent that this is an election year are going to get these fresh, hot and new right in their faces after Labor Day. The talking heads may be bored by them, but the ads are writing themselves and are being loaded into the magazines.
When Bill and Joe and Stan are sitting at their pub watching the playoffs and an ad comes on showing Rev. Wright damning America and tying him hand and foot to Obama, or an ad showing Hillary’s Adventure in Dangerland as she receives flowers from a little girl; then the fun is really going to begin.
This is just the Overture, the ochestra has a long way to play still, but you’ve heard the themes you’re going to hear for the next seven months.
I think there will be lots of timpani in the crescendo.
I do.
Mikey – Those ads write themselves.
They do JD TWP – and they are the equivalent to handing your opponent a Louisville Slugger and turning your back.
Of course, there are bad ads about John McCain; that he’s old, that he has said some silly stuff about vaccines and who is sponsoring which terrorist group, that he has a bad temper and yells at reporters and congressmen…
Wait – is yelling at reporters and congressmen a bad thing or a good thing?
From Stan and Joe and Bill’s perspective, I mean.
I put my first pub submission up a few minutes ago, and it relates to this topic.
I think it’s going to be ’72 in November.
But Denver…baby, 1968 ’till it hurts!
– Hillery: “….For myself, all I can say is I would not be a member of any church with a Pastor that made those sort of comments”
– Barack’s barracuda’s: “Its very disappointing that Mrs Clinton decided to hit a new low in an attempt to deflect away from her recent lies concerning her trip to Bosnia.”
– Did anyone order more popcorn?
Ohhhhh, boy. It’s news like this that’s going to guarantee a Clinton-Obama ticket come August.
And all this trash-talking will be completely swept under the rug by the MSM, and they’ll be BFF. Uggghhhhhh.
“This is just the Overture.”
And oh – what – heights – we’ll hiiiiiiit!
A Clinton/Obama ticket?
Great!!!!! We get to run both ads during the major League playoffs.
You really mean an Obama/Edwards ticket. The Clinton’s act like trailer trash. Why would we want liars and whoremongers, respresenting our country. I being kind folks.
Do the Clinton’s go to church? She says Obama should have changed churches because of the true statements his pastor made about some of white America. Well I think she should have changed husbands when Bill did those unholy things with that women in the WHITE HOUSE that the world knows about. I would have changed husbands and left the country. Poor Chelsa almost threw up when asked a question regarding the Lewinsky scandal. It obvious they did not get that child any therapy. Really, the whole family needs therapy. Again, Wright spoke the truth and it appears that white America just can’t stand to hear the truth. But it was okay for Fox to air the their interview with the imperial grand master of the KKK saying that they were going to kill Obama if he was elected. He still walking around free. He did not even get a hand slap. Face it folks we live in a racist country and as long as white America is slamming black America it is okay. When the tables are turned the black folks are racist. Take your current president, with the Katrina scandal in New Orleans. What would you call that dump or racist? Now do you just suppose that white America is afraid that Senator Obama will be bias and his presidency will slant more toward programs and policies that will help black people. God knows that the present and previous administrations have benefited white America. Oh, I keep forgetting all the little tokens like Conde. Powell had enough sense to get out of the madness. Senator Obama will be a great president given a chance. He is concerned about the country and not furthering his personal agenda like the Clintons and the present administration. Old man McCain will institute the draft and our grandchildren will be fighting a senseless war like he did in Vietnam. The Bush war on terror has always been about the war on Money and Greed. Some how in his sane moments the Bush folks have convinced old man McCain to keep up the charade. I just can’t image McCain with his rich Steford wife in the White House. Flashbacks of Vietnam and Cindy in search of pain killers. Cindy never even went to College. If she did she must have missed the graduation. Can’t find a thing.
No, I’m fine with hearing the truth. It’s the lies I have a problem with. Those and the racism.