At the Wall Street Journal, Amy Chozick had an article the other day demonstrating that Hillary Clinton — facing another must-win situation in Pennsylvania — has learned from (or is required by) the ruinous excesses that marked the start of her campaign for the Democratic nomination that organization matters:
Campaign staffers say that in Pennsylvania Sen. Clinton will rely more heavily on volunteers and a more frugal, homegrown effort. “I wasn’t around for Iowa, but I think people in Pennsylvania want a more personal approach,” says state campaign spokesman Mark Nevins, who joined the staff two weeks ago.
Sen. Clinton is expected to host more interactive roundtable events to talk to voters about the economy — an approach that paid off in Ohio, where people have similar economic concerns.
In Iowa the campaign flooded the airwaves with statewide television ads. Given the size and diversity of Pennsylvania, the campaign could mostly rely on targeted ads in cheaper, local markets, particularly in smaller rural areas where Sen. Clinton is popular, aides say.
While a graphic in the WSJ story suggests Clinton has “100+” staffers in the Keystone State, Al Giordano pegs the number as considerably higher in his assessment of the contest:
The press will try to make a race of it. There will surely be polls showing the race tightening, perhaps even suggesting that Obama could win it. But that’s just part of the predictable song-and-dance to sell newspapers and up ratings (and hit counts, for the political blogs and news sites that sell ads). The way the odd-numbered delegate districts break down, the demographics, the fact that it’s a closed primary (no Independent voters allowed), and its long border with the senator’s New York state make it a lead-pipe cinch for Clinton; to the extent that Obama supporters enter the “no, but yes, we can win it†narrative they’ll be walking into a trap.
Clinton has now moved 250 staffers (about 13 for each of Pennsylvania’s 19 Congressional districts) into the Keystone state and is opening two dozen field offices. She has the support of Governor Ed Rendell and his considerable machine, not to mention a phalanx of mayors including Michael Nutter of Philadelphia. They’re carrying a straight flush and they’re betting everything on it. That makes it tempting for Obama fans to seek a knockout punch, but all their candidate really needs to do is survive to the next round – North Carolina, two weeks later – without having fallen into a rigged expectations game to clinch the nomination.
My only point of disagreement is that Obama will not — and cannot — clinch the nomination simply by surviving Pennsylania and North Carolina. Absent superdelegates, neither candidate can do that. Nevertheless, Giordano has a breakdown of Pennsylvania’s 16 Congressional Districts, estimating that Clinton can win a net gain of between 20-30 delegates.
The post title asks whether Clinton seemingly getting her organization (and blue-collar message) together matters.  After all, the overall delegate math will still favor Obama after Pennsylvania, doesn’t it?
Yes it does. However, OpenLeft’s Chris Bowers has his latest estimates of delegate totals for the remainder of the nomination contests and thinks the fight is probably headed to the convention:
There is a growing sentiment that the “delegate math” favors Obama, and that he will wrap-up the nomination in June. While this is a sentiment with which I generally agree, upon closer analysis of the delegate math I think that Clinton has a better chance than many realize. In fact, a close look at the delegate math indicates that there is a good chance we will either head to the convention without a presumptive nominee, or head to the convention with a barely presumptive nominee. By “barely presumptive,” I mean a candidate who is just slightly over 2,208, with that total possibly disputed by the opposing campaign. Overall, I would say there is a greater than 50% we will face one of those two scenarios.
His estimate of Pennsylvania has Clinton gaining only ten delegates, so if Clinton gained the 20-30 Giordano predicts — and pump up her popular vote tally in the process – it might end up mattering in Denver.
No matter what Rush Limbaugh says, I would feel much better if Hillary is knocked out of this thing soonest. Barack Obama is weaker, politically. Obama doesn’t have the political capital that Hillary commands; and AFAIK he doesn’t have any real skeletons in his family closet.
The Clintons? maybe.
If we must have a Democratic Executive, let’s have someone new and exciting.
Nope. I want a Hillary nominee starting out with almost half of Americans determined to never support her, with independents remembering the Clinton years with distaste, and with the most loyal Democrat voting bloc (African Americans)royally pissed off at her.
Senator Marxist Hopey-Changey gets way too much of a pass from the press and from young idiots that have never voted and have no idea what the constitution means. He scares me.
serr8d
I want Hillary to stay in as long as possible… it drains the coffers of both her and Barry and the public animosity towards each other hardens their followers not to forgive or forget after the convention.
I guarantee you, if Hill is nominated she is going to lose big time the African-American vote like you’ve never seen.
Right now McCain would do well to run on pocketbook issues with independents and moderate Dems while shoring up the GOP. The Romney reconciliation talk of late shows there might be some intelligence in the McCain campaign.
Senator Marxist Hopey-Changey
I never understood why Ben Franklin said “He that lives upon Hope, dies farting.” Are there beans in Hope?
Salt Lick, if all you ingest is air the pressure is likely to build.
Regards,
Ric
Ric — are you trying to deflate our Hope?
Well we all know she will do well there, no surprise. They have already damaged Obama with racial remarks. Racial remarks made only after she lost mississipi. They tried to be nice when they campaigned in mississipi, but they lost. Now that the next contest is Pa where the majority is white, they want to play the race card, so white pipo should go overwelmingly for he. That is not fair, Anyways I know she will do whatever she can to win. I wish her luck in all of this. I hope she will be able to win with white votes and spanish votes if she gets nominated.
I hope she will be able to win with white votes and spanish votes if she gets nominated.
Since when does Spain get to send delegates to the Electoral College?
Clinton’s distasteful Act
The McDougal went to prison not wanting to testify,
Ken Starr had his hand full with sex scandal
Yes again the White House used as a motel
Monica got a book deal
Whistle blower got paid
The Bill Clinton sex scandal is the first to make history
Hilllary Clinton, will be second to make history, if she wins. She have to come thru
John McCain.
This is very similiar to the Iran/Iraq conflict of the ’80s. I stand four square in support of the use of any tactic and/or weapon by either and/or both side[s]. May the bitterness engendered by the battle long endure.
If forced to bet, my money would be on Clinton to come out of the convention carrying BHO’s head in a sack. My preference would be that BHO emerge victorious from the convention so that we might be entertained by Rev. Wright and MO until his defeat in November.
Did someone actually pay this idjit? All the Independents (and Republicans) have to do is decide that since the Republican Presidential race is over, they aren’t interested in the down-ticket so they’ll register Dem now and vote for whoever they please in the general.