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Election 2008: Obama is not magically unifying right now… [Karl]

At least that is what you might conclude from last weekend’s Rasmussen poll, which showed that John McCain had less core opposition than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama:

Barack Obama has the same number who will definitely vote for him (as McCain) — 34%. But, more people are committed to voting against him than McCain. Forty-three percent (43%) say they will definitely reject him at the ballot box. For 18%, their support depends on his opponent.

However, the poll shows a different picture among unaffiliated voters.  Among that group, McCain’s for/against numbers are 28%/31%, while Obama’s are 34%/34%.  McCain’s core support drops and the margin of core opposition drops to within the margin of error.

Ed Morrissey, who apparently pays for Rasmussen’s premium service, adds some details:

The crosstabs show a few surprises. McCain actually does slightly better among younger voters (54%) than Obama (51%), and much better among seniors (44%, 24% for Obama). He does better in the “Other” and “White” ethnic categories, but Obama hasn’t locked up as much of the black vote as he’ll need. Only 60% say they will definitely vote for him, while 19% say they will definitely vote against him. McCain gets 9% of the black vote — about what Republicans normally get — but 37% will wait to see who runs against him, and another 8% aren’t sure.

It would certainly be good news if McCain could hold his own with the youth vote, but I quite frankly do not buy the numbers on the black vote.  When votes are tallied, Obama has consistently outperformed the polling numbers for the black vote.  It is also a bit suspicious that 19% say they will definitely vote against Obama, while only 9% say they will vote for McCain.  Who is picking up the other 10% of the black vote?  Ron Paul?

Obama may not be magically unifying right now, but he is doing better than the topline numbers from Rasmussen suggest.

7 Replies to “Election 2008: Obama is not magically unifying right now… [Karl]”

  1. Sue Martin says:

    I don’t see how Obama can lose – after all, he will fix your computer (and more!) – See http://obamawill.com

  2. JD says:

    This whole Obama unifying meme is a pile of hooey. Against McCain, he will not be able to show one single instance of reaching across the aisle to get things done. Actually, he can’t show any real accomplishments, but that is beside the point.

  3. LiveFromFortLivingRoom says:

    How could 10 percent of the african-american vote be against change?

  4. McGehee says:

    This is looking not so much like 1976 as like 1876.

  5. Mikey NTH says:

    Isn’t the “youth vote” an oxymoron?

  6. Rob Crawford says:

    How could 10 percent of the african-american vote be against change?

    They understand that not all change is good?

  7. Major Hughes says:

    Three-quarters of that 19% that say they will vote against Obama are flat out liers. They just don’t want the poll to show that Obama will get 95% of the black vote.

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