The buzz about the possibility that super-delegates may decide the Democratic presidential nomination seems to be spreading a bit — at least on left-liberal blogs. Ezra Klein seems troubled by the prospect (a pun — ouch!), while Kevin Drum argues it wouldn not be so bad, asking, “why shouldn’t the party elders, many of whom have to run on the same ticket as the presidential nominee, get a little extra say in the process?” The Carpetbagger Report sums up these positions, notes it may come down to a super-delegate’s perceprion of who is electable, but concludes:
If Clinton and Obama go to the convention tied (or practically tied) among pledged delegates, this is a moot point. Superdelegates can break (a) tie. But the possibility for real ugliness emerges if Democratic voters have spoken, and Democratic insiders silence them by picking the candidate who came in second.
Indeed, but the perception of what constitutes a “practical tie” may depend on more than numbers of regular delegates.ÂÂ
For example, Sen. Barack Obama may end up leading in the delegate count on Super-Duper Tuesday because of… wait for it… organization in the caucus states. As Thomas B. Edsall notes at thee HuffPo, ” A caucus state victory is generally considered less significant than taking first place in a primary, although there is no difference between caucuses and primaries in terms of the number of delegates to be won.” Six of Obama’s 13 wins yesterday were in caucus states. Some super-delegates may conclude that Obama’s delegate count contains too many cheap delegates from caucuses in Red states where the Dems may not be competitive in a general election.
Obama’s possible delegate lead yesterday would also be a product of his margins in Georgia and Illinois and his competitiveness in New Jersey. Super-delegates might feel so confident of winning two and losing one of those in a general election that his victories seem less impressive.
Conversely, some super-delegates may look at the fact that Obama wins independent voters, while Clinton wins Democrats. They may figure the Dems will flow to Obama, but the independents could be lured away by likely GOP nominee John McCain. Or they may consider that Obama is attracting latte liberals, while Clinton is stronger with the blue-collar voters Dems might need to win key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania in a general election.
Or they may consider that Clinton is getting pasted among pasty white men, which remains a sizable voting bloc.
Moreover, how a super-delegate considers these factors will in turn be influenced by whether that super-delegate is also running for election in 2008, and if so, where that super is running.
Finally, in the case of a “practical tie,” the Dems dilemma over Florida and Michigan could get very nasty.
No wonder some on the Left are getting a little jittery.
Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch. In fact, watching the Dems pull out all the indentity politics cards against each other and exposing the schisms in the party apparatus are the lone sources of enjoyment for me ‘cuz I sure ain’t getting any fun watching the GOP.
I am going to pray for a brokered convention and a floor fight, for both parties.
NG already took back the part about voting for McCain over Obama cause she saw him on tv last night for his speech and she said he looked pathetic and his wife really put her off cause she’s so scary 80s and bitchy looking. This would be anecdotal evidence… of something.
happyfeet,
JG needs an opinion on someone from NPR who wants to interview him.
Thanks Karl. That was nice what you said.
Ultimately I fear Obama is doomed by his color and the presumption by idiot leftists that America won’t vote for a black man because this is such a racist place.
I stand on my prediction that it will be Obama as the nominee.
If the Clintons were on track, Super Tuesday would have decided the issue. They are in uncharted territory and whatever plans they made have failed them.
The only thing more dangerous than a tiger is… a wounded tiger.
Obama has a terrific set of positives going for him. He’s a minority, he’s telegenic, he’s changey. And he’s not a Clinton. The Democrat establishment doesn’t want to worry about what dirt the Clintons may have on them. The media wants glitter and excitement without having to editorialize in defense of the oral sex or why perjury isn’t all that bad when the president is pro-abortion.
Obama would be tidy. A blank slate, if you will. The remaining states seem to be leaning his way, too.
I guess if Hillary enters the convention behind in delegates, she could do the honorable thing and publicly encourage the super delegates to vote based on their respective state’s primary results.
I said “Hillary” and “honorable” in the same sentence. I am going to hell, aren’t I?
More likely Bedlam.
I don’t think Obama will win at this point because I think Democratic Party voters are going “well I’d rather have him, but those racist bastard red staters will never vote for a negro so I have to pick Clinton so we can win the White House!”
Will Hillary’s people have access to any of the information that Tony Rezko might give up about his relationship with BHO? Do they have any information *cough*FBI Files*cough* on tap about John McCain or Mike Huckabee? Rather than consider Hillary doing ‘the honorable thing’, isn’t her retinue more likely to do the necessary things to return to the White House?
I want Chicago circa 1968, rioting in the streets, Democrat white women brawling with Democrat blacks, “Opression Olympics,” Steinham fighting with Sharpton for the microphone, anti-Semitism laid bare, Latinos being ignored, fissures in the party, apocalyptic-like stuff. Good television, that.
Plus, you know, they deserve in spades that which they have foisted upon the Nation as a whole.
I think whoever wins on both parties; they’ve only one goal and dreaming to serve the nation maybe, I’ll pray for them. That’s all I can do.
We need to spray for these failed Turing-test commenters. They’re starting to lay eggs in the upholstery.
“I don’t think Obama will win at this point because I think Democratic Party voters are going “well I’d rather have him, but those racist bastard red staters will never vote for a negro so I have to pick Clinton so we can win the White House!—
That’s the thing that I find interesting in regards to Obama. There certainly will be racists who don’t vote for him due to his skin color. And a great majority of them will be union democrats. However, there will be a great deal of racists that do vote for him due to his skin color, too. Will they cancel eachother out?
As far as the blank slate comment. Have you seen the trolls around here lately. I think they can relate quite well to “blank slate”. He may be tailor made for these whackos.
happyfeet,
I certainly hope I made clear that I was kidding about the one part. Obviously, I pay attention to your comments, or I would not have thought of you viz NPR in the first place.
Oh. No. For real. I thought that was nice. I’m going to get the biggest kick out of tomorrow. Since this came up again though I will say I was shocked really shocked for Jeff to say he didn’t listen much to NPR. It’s crap news, but it’s really the only way these people out here are marginally comprehensible. It’s either that or The Daily Show.
Also, it’s evil. It motivates me a lot not to forget that I have to do my part.
Obama is becoming more and more popular. Maybe the people of America needs just someone like him–new and full of ideals.
new and full of
idealsshitThere, fixed that for ya’
[…] Democratic angst over the Michigan and Florida delegations grows as more people ponder the possibility that neither […]
The issue of super delegates and the democratic party is unconscionable. Currently Obama is ahead in the popular vote and behind in the delegate vote. We can not have 800 party insiders decide the primaries for us! I have created a protest page here:
http://www.popularprimaryvotenow.com
If you think this is an issue please add a comment to the protest page of the website. I will print out all the comments and give them to the Democratic party.
Ok good. We can’t just let this issue fester. Unconscionable is right!
obama is the only candidate who doesn’t owe any corporations/special interest groups…his allegiance is to the American people who have sent him $10 or whatever they can afford to support their beliefs…because they feel a truth with obama’s position…where there’s a wlll there’s always a way. decide to vote for “yes we can” or instead of the other candidate’s position…”of no we can’t”… for me it’s a no brainer… HOPE IS ALL WE HAVE AND IT’S ENOUGH TO UNITE US…BECAUSE IT’S EVERYONE’S RESPONSIBILITY…TO MAKE IT HAPPEN…
for me it’s a no brainer
You ain’t shitting us.
[…] candidate may reach a clear majority of pledged delegates, that the nomination could be decided by superdelegates, or possibly involve the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan. People have wondered […]