Looking ahead to Super-Duper Tuesday, the polls from many of the big states favored Sen. John McCain even before Florida voted; Rudy Giuliani’s anticipated withdrawal from the race and endorsement of McCain will only magnify that trend. Of the states not represented at the prior link, Mitt Romney had a 19 point lead over McCain in Colorado, home of Jeff Goldstein and 66 delegates. And it is a fair bet that Romney will win Utah, which has 36 delegates. Minnesota has not had a poll in ages, probably because it is a nonbinding straw poll on the GOP side; the numbers from last September tend to suggest that Romney will be down to McCain, assuming that Giuliani voters gravitate toward McCain, even if Thompson’s voters all end up with Romney. McCain may even take Montana.
A top Romney adviser told the WaPo that the campaign is taking a “cost per delegate” approach. This is consistent with the report forom the Wall Street Journal that:
He is also analyzing states where the winner of each congressional district picks up Republican delegates, and is considering making a play for some in Georgia, Alabama and California, regardless of whether he can win the entire state, one of his strategists said. Part of the goal, Mr. Romney said, is keeping opponents guessing. “Clearly it’s a bit of … a head fake there and a move in a different direction than they were expecting, but it’s all about getting delegates.”
There are two problems with this strategy, even if it is Romney’s best possible strategy. The first is that McCain is well-positioned to grab his own cheap delegates in states like California. The second is that getting delegates is not all about getting delegates. Like Florida, Super-Duper Tuesday may come down to a battle of organization vs. momentum. Politics is built in no small part on the notion that perception is as good as reality. If the perception sets in with the general public that McCain is inevitable (as is already happening in some quarters of the punditocracy), it will become increasingly difficult for Romney’s organization to turn out the voters who would win more delegates. McCain’s lead in many of the big winner-take-all states may cause that perception to set in next week.
The Romney campaign already seems to have learned some of the lessons of my prior analysis of McCain’s strengths. Romney has belatedly shifted back to a message of changing Washington. Romney told Fox News Channel’s Bill Hemmer that Mitt would be going after McCain on integrity — a high-risk, high-reward strategy — but one he might have wanted to consider before losing Florida:
As I previously suggested with respect to Huckabee, establishing McCain as a flip-flopper is more likely to separate McCain from his adherents than merely pointing out how many of those positions have not been conservative. Romney did this to Huckabee with great effect in New Hampshire, so it is slightly baffling that he is not doing it to McCain now. After all, Romney is already being seen as the “negative†candidate, so he might as well be good at it.
Instead, Romney waited and his uphill climb is now “Mount Everest-ian.”
re: “flip-flopping” — what is wrong with a politician, public servant, government official or anyone else changing his or her position on an issue? To my mind that demonstrates flexibility and an ability to adapt to changing facts on the ground. I think it’s obvious when a change of position is pandering as opposed to genuine. I really hope Romney doesn’t resort to attacking McCain over such a trifling issue. McCain has some appeal to the left-leaners. Romney better refrain from the pigtail-pulling, or I predict McCain will pick up even more supporters.
Hey, Giuliani’s done the impossible before.
I’m preparing a draft for my last political blog entry. It’s tentatively titled “Disenfranchised in 2008”.
I’ll stick to talking about old rifles and marksmanship from here on out.
are u mad Karl?
romney is unelectable.
if he gets the nod, we are gonna learn more than we ever wanted to know about mormonism, courtesy the dems.
it hasnt been an issue until now….but the dems are praying for it.
disabuse ur bigself of the feel-good hallucination that mormonism is just an innocuous variant of protestanism.
can the next POTUS really be allowed to profess that dead jews can be baptized into the mormon faith and that native americans are the lost tribes of israel?
good luck with that.
err…..hello? MENA?
im in denver too.
there is an hour delay while the overflow crowds get seated.
saint obama is our only hope of avoiding another two terms of bilary.
hes got my vote.
nishi!
I think you are mistaking my descrpition with prescription. And my description is not particularly good for Romney, either.
And though this post does not address the Mormon issue, I don’t think the Dems would have to be overt about it. And I don’t think they would have to be overt about it. They would likely be content to have it be an under-the-radar drag, because going too overt would make them look bigoted, which Dems try to avoid when possible. The Dems would probably stick more to painting Romney as a blow-dried, inauthentic panderer to the social cons, the guy who lays you off, etc.
do u recall…..the whole trauma-drama about dems not attackin huckabees religious orientation right away cuz they thot hed be a soft candidate?
it is insane to propose a mormon for the highest office…..why not a scientologist…why not a snakehandler?
romney may be a nice family man, an even a skilled corporate raider, an all that…but he is a liability.
he is vulnerable.
i hate bein in the Stupid Party.
im gonna register democrat.
Wow, this is informative. I thought Romney as representing the ‘establishment’ had still the edge over McCain as does Hillary. But maybe not. McCain might be the man. Guiliani’s a ghost.
Yeah, the Mormon issue isn’t that bad for Romney. Mormons have a higher representation amongst America’s CEOs than any other religion including Jews. As percentage of CEOs vs. percentage of overall population. A
little tidbit I read but seems correct as to the salesmanship developed through the missonary work that all confirmed Mormon men have to do (2 years of missionary service approx. when they’re at draft age). How about Harry Reid, leader of Dem.Senate also a Mormon? Maybe some would find such a convergence of Mormon leaders uncomfortable? But then Jack Anderson, journalist was targeted for assassination by JGordon Liddy as he says, and I knew personally one of Anderson’s daughters who had to conceal her identity as their family knew they were possible targets by Nixon’s hit squads…they hopefully didn’t make any hits that I know of, impeachment got in the way….but ol’ J Gordon sure brags about having Jack in his sights. So not all Mormons are Republicans.
Still I don’t see a lot of enthusiasm for Romney here. He raised taxes in Mass, supported govt. Mandated private health insurance premiums upon lower incomed working people, left office with a 43 percent fav. rating after serving one term…makes Obama and Hillary look like seasoned veterans. Wow, why haven’t conservatives acknowledged the greater flipflopping of Mitt while going after McCain’s alleged flipping.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney
let’s feel it!
Yes. It is true… Romney is a Mormon. I just really can’t bring myself to vote for someone who believes in kolob. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolob I mean, kookcinich has nothing on Mitt in this regard. In any event, maybe I shouldnt talk… as I believe in Transubstantiation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation – not comparing the two, however, as Transubstantiation is emminently more believable. Still, the Rom-ulans http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romulans are going to have an uphill fight. Unless, of course, they have someone like JFKs pop to “influence” the erection. I mean, we’ve only had one Papist and that didn’t end too well. Will Amwhorica vote for a Mormon? Is Hamerica ready to see a Romulan presidency? My bigoted, though incredibly well-edumacated self (did I happen to mention I have Masters of things?), sez not likely.
u miss my point.
it hasnt been an issue so far.
personally i dont care about religious affiliation…but the nominee shud be electable for cripes sakes.
this is the best we could come up with? a huge vulnerability?
the Stupid Party.
i kno plenty of mormons, an they are nice folks…they make great agency recruits and military an congress ppl….but not a one is runnin for pres.
ceaser’s wife, right?
solvin the ME peace problem while bein Mormon? HUGE target.
its fine that he wants to run.
but he aint electable.
cant we be smarter?
we deserve another 8 years of bilary.
That’s just wrong. What do you want the Mormons to do? Sail away to the New World to escape your oppressive bullshit?
yah enoch, an there was a lot of trauma-drama about jfk’s papist ticket right?
modern times, it will get much uglier.
we have…an appetite for ugly these days.
lolz ima sufi an a mathematician…i believe in transubstantiation an metaphysics.
i wud be a Pythagorean but Kylon and the first democrats genocided them.
thus..the natural antipathy of mathematicians for democrats.
but ill vote for Obama.
;)
i have also read every word Neal Stephenson has written.
Cryptonomicon is my favorite book all time.
which is urs?
err..no happyfeet…they can believe wat they like.
like i said, im a sufi.
urs is better for u, mine is better for me.
;)
but it is unrealistic to believe that Romney is electable.
Ok. But McCain and the First Amendment blah blah blah pales against religious tests for office I think is all I’d say there.
ni shi – Nijonjin? Erm… I am going to have to go with the System of the World trilogy, though when you consider Crytonomicon, it is hard to not choose that too. Can I choose both?
Full Disclosure: I think Mormons are nice.
get this crackheads!
i have no bias against mormons….my bias is against Stupid hominids.
Romney is quite simply unelectable…cuz the instant he got the nod he wud be targetted on account of his beliefs by the opposition.
the clinton machine wud make short work of him, sry.
Enoch i predate u here.
the oldskool are sadly familiar with me.
Nishizono Shinji is from this manga.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MPD_Psycho
i suspect u are more into economics than pure math..thus the Baroque Cycle for u…but only slightly.
So in nishi-world it is stupid to vote for the person you believe is the best choice, instead you should vote for the most popular.
And you are calling us crackheads?
crack is not one of …..my…….vices as it were.
electable!= “most popular”
my point is, a vote for an unelectable candidate is throwing away your vote.
oooo…jeffie G is back.
^^ look upwards.
McCain is eminently electable. Problem is, I’m not voting for a moderate Democrat with ethics baggage.
As long as we are talking electable here, I don’t think that McCain can beat either Dem likely; the media wouldn’t be on their kneepads for him now if he were really a threat.
It’s going to be O’Bama v. McCain, and it won’t be a landslide. But it won’t be all that close, either.
CAVEAT: That depends on what dirt the Clintons’ have. Rezko in the can is not good for Obama. But if the rest of the campaign is about politics, it’s done.
arigato gozaimasu, Shinji
Yes, more into econ… which of course makes current affairs particularly fascinating.
As for MPD. I have been known to flux from this to that as well.
rasmussen
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama
When I’m called a crackhead, I usually prefer it coming from someone who knows where his shift key is located.
But that’s just me.
I can own the crackhead thing. That means I get to get one of those cool lighters.
that poll predates Edwards announcement and the sort of frenzy we are seein in Denver today.
i agree Tmj.
i think….Obama will win if he gets the nomination.
bilary will fight to the death tho.
i think….Mccain can beat bilary……but not Obama.
Nope. Neither.
Dole with a better press relationship.
But still a convenient loser.
McCain or Romney will be the next Pres. I am sad to say that a Mormon ( in this case the best choice) can be elected Pres., but this country is not ready for left leaning black or woman to lead this county. 8 years of the Dem’s controlling congress, and nothing got done.
When the economy goes south thats when the Republicans start to look good to voters.
Michael and William both hinted at this. If the religion wants to curtail hyper- activity, the religion needs to change, not the people. The religion would still have a few hyper- actives, but then they would be the exception, not the rule. That’ s not to say that hyper- actives are the majority in the religion except among those who actually self- identify as Mormon and are active. Best estimates would put the inactives or non- identifiers at close to 6 million of the 12 million (see Rick Phillips’ s and…
I agree with most stuff on this site cool keep up the good work!!!