In addition to this morning’s insty-analysis, some additional notes.ÂÂ
First, the pollsters were off more in South Carolina than they were in New Hampshire — but they picked the correct winner, so we will probably not be subjected to faulty analysis of the polling by Andrew Kohut.
Second, OpenLeft’s Chris Bowers handicaps Super-Duper Tuesday for the Dems:
So, the question is, how close does Obama have to be after Super Tuesday in order to keep going? Certainly, if Obama is ahead on his own, or if Edwards and Obama combined are ahead of Clinton. Other than that, with only 1,374 pledged delegates left, I think a gap of 100 would be manageable, but a gap of 200 or more would not be.
Bowers writes that Obama’s big win in South Carolina offers his supporters some hope, but that really does not square with his analysis suggesting Clinton will emerge from Super-Duper Tuesday with a 250-300 vote lead in pledged delegates, even excluding her advantages in Florida, Michigan or super-delegates. The South Carolina landslide might move Alabama into Obama’s column, but the demographics laid out by Jay Cost are tough for Obama in most of those states. The delegate allocation rules almost certainly prevent Clinton from sewing up the nomination on February 5th, but the writing is likely to be on the wall.
Update: ABCNews and CNN are reporting that Sen. Ted Kennedy will endorse Obama, which – despite Big Tent Democrat’s sulky post at TalkLeft — will be of great value to Obama in Massachussets and perhaps beyond.
A new card for the deck:
I just don’t think they can hold it together, Karl.
I have covered the MI/FL issue repeatedly, including the reax from Ezra Klein, Josh Marshall, et al.
The Clintons will hold it together. Perhaps not as together as they would like, but together.
Ted Kennedy has endorsed Obama. Sadly, this will probably be significant here in MA.
Well, I know YOU’VE covered it repeatedly. I’m just a little stunned by the groundswell of reaction there has been in the past two days. (Part of my pushing of the idea is that such memes have the capacity to become self-fulfilling prophecy.)
Karl,
If you look at the “Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters” line on SUSA’s final SC poll, the error problem is pretty clear. SUSA anticipated that black turnout would be 41%. Instead it was 55% with a 4/1 BHO advantage (higher than the poll results). The polling sucks because the turnout models suck. If black turnout in FL replicates that of SC then Clinton’s lead is 4-5% rather than the 17% that SUSA shows.
SC VEP Black = 28.6%, black % of primary voters was 55%
FL VEP Black = 15.4%, SUSA turnout model, 20% (it will be over 28% if FL replicates SC)
Right now, I’d move AL to the BHO column alongside GA. If he wins FL then I believe that NJ and CA will be in play on the 5th.
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Rick Ballard — If my experience in Studio City is any indicator, Hillary has some real problems in California. I’ve been parading a sign with a happy little Klansman yelling “Hillary 08!” to applause. The only folks who seem to object tend to be older. She may have the AARP vote but the rest is questionable.
GMG,
The AARP demo may save her in FL but if the FL Jewish vote (4% VEP – 7-8% vote total) goes against her then CA will become very problematic. Her key demos at the moment are under $50K and over 65. Those aren’t winners in CA.
Holy smokes alive! Put down your grapenuts everybody! Cap’n Ed makes his endorsement, and it’s … it’s Mitt! Him did analysis, but he says though he could still support “Mike Huckabee without reservation,” so everybody head on over there and let him know he done good. And let’s everybody fall in line. The Cap’n has a pretty darn good nose for these things!
“Mike Huckabee without reservation,â€Â
Anyone that can say that needs to have their head examined.
[…] of Sen. Hillary Clinton tomorrow. That is more or less what left-leaning bloggers like Chris Bowers have been writing. So it does not seem like Obama’s camp is engaging in barefaced spin in […]