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Dems 2008: Nevada Insty-Analysis

With CNN and Fox projecting Sen. Hillary Clinton over Sen. Barack Obama in Nevada (with John Edwards a distant third), a quick glance at the entrance poll tells the tale.

That tale is largely the one told by Jay Cost after the New Hampshire primary.  It is all about the “Mondale coalition,” minus black voters.  Clinton turned out women and older voters, who edged out Obama’s support among young and black voters.  Hillary’s Hispanic firewall held; Obama’s dog-whistle fell on deaf ears in Vegas.  Even with Obama’s endorsement by the Culinary Workers’ Union, Clinton took 43% of union households.  Income level was not a big factor.

These results may well be the portent of doom for Obama.  Looking ahead, Obama has had a healthy lead in South Carolina where typically about half of Democratic-primary voters are black.  His loss in Nevada may cause some slippage, but probably not enough to lose in SC.  Clinton has generally held a substantial lead in Florida, where candidates have not campaigned over the state’s conflict with the DNC for moving up the primary date.  In Nevada, blacks comprised 16% of the vote; only three of the Super-Duper Tuesday states have more than a 16% black population.  Obama seems to have hoped caucus states would be more favorable ground for him, but Clinton managed a caucus win, even with some union opposition.

The silver lining for Obama is that the proportional allocation of delegates keeps him in the race for a while, buying time for him try to change the underlying dynamic.  However, the loss in Nevada and the expectation that Obama will take South Carolina will make the media environment more difficult.

Update:  After her supporters unsuccessfully sued to shut down the caucus sites on the Vegas strip, she won there, too.  Right now, Clinton looks so money!

16 Replies to “Dems 2008: Nevada Insty-Analysis”

  1. happyfeet says:

    just one look and I can hear a bell ring

    one more look and I forget everything, o-o-o-oh

    Mamma mia, here we go again

  2. Pablo says:

    Hey, if you carry the Bellagio, how can you lose?

  3. Karl says:

    She also carried Paris, despite Obama being endorsed by Kerry.

  4. B Moe says:

    “After her supporters unsuccessfully sued to shut down the caucus sites on the Vegas strip, she won there, too. “

    It is like the abused woman syndrome. Seeing this, and the early returns in SC, I am truly starting to fear that this country is too far gone to save. The idiots have gained control.

  5. jeremiah morehead says:

    How can the media say Hillary wins big in Nevada when Obama gets more delegates. Thats like saying Al Gore wins big in 2000 becuase he led the popular vote. Seems like Obama should be the one being declared the winner on TV.

  6. MarkJ says:

    “After her supporters unsuccessfully sued to shut down the caucus sites on the Vegas strip, she won there, too. “

    It is like the abused woman syndrome. Seeing this, and the early returns in SC, I am truly starting to fear that this country is too far gone to save. The idiots have gained control.”

    Naw, I wouldn’t go that far. The problem for “Hillaria Regina” that her Terminator-like obsession to grab the nomination will give the majority of Democrats SOMETHING to hate about her. Youth vote? Don’t know about that: why should the kids vote for a screeching “I am Woman!” retread who still thinks Fleetwood Mac is da bomb? Black vote? That’s looking increasingly dicey to me, especially given the legal shenanigans her crew tried to pull in Nevada. Working people? Don’t know about that–why should they put their faith in somebody who still can’t come up with a coherent answer about drivers licenses for illegals?

    My view is that in coming months all of the old Clinton baggage from the 90’s is going to show up again in the Political Luggage Claim area: the White House Travel Office, HillaryCare, the Rose Law Firm, Vince Foster, cattle futures, the Lincoln Bedroom, and just precisely what the f*** Bubba plans to do in his spare time after he tosses his duffel bag across the White House threshold.

    Would Obama accept a vice-presidential nod offer from Hillary? I’m not so sure he would, given the bad blood between them. Indeed, Obama might find it far more convenient, and politically saavy, to say, “Thanks, but no thanks” and let the Dragon Lady stew in her own juices. Hell, why would Obama want to play second fiddle to the White Mistress during what could very well be a disastrous, divisive, one-term presidency? By 2012, Obama will still be under 50, will no longer be accused of being wet behind the ears, and will have had plenty of time to build up his capital and call in his political chits.

    That’s my .02 for you.

  7. B Moe says:

    “My view is that in coming months all of the old Clinton baggage from the 90’s is going to show up again in the Political Luggage Claim area: the White House Travel Office, HillaryCare, the Rose Law Firm, Vince Foster, cattle futures, the Lincoln Bedroom, and just precisely what the f*** Bubba plans to do in his spare time after he tosses his duffel bag across the White House threshold.”

    And what? People are suddenly going to start caring? Dude, the Clinton machine tried to suppress the Culinary Workers vote, then when that didn’t work Bill made baseless claims that the Union was trying to suppress the rank and files votes, and the dumbfuckingsonuvabitches still voted Clinton. I am convinced there is nothing Clinton could do that would turn away that base. It is sickening.

  8. happyfeet says:

    I’ve been cheated by you since I don’t know when

    So I made up my mind, it must come to an end

    Look at me now, will I ever learn?

  9. B Moe says:

    And then we have Huckabee pulling the same shit on the other side. I am starting to think we need to redeploy the troops to fucking Arkansas, there is some very weird shit going on up in there. Can we get that on the Burge/Goldstein 08 platform? Just go ahead and nuke Arkansas?

  10. Mikey NTH says:

    Got to watch that orange type for the links. At the last one I first thought that you had written that “Right now, Clinton looks so manly!”

    It could be the sign of some psychological slippage on my part, but I’m going to blame the orange color anyway.

  11. Mikey NTH says:

    Or it may be the pantsuits. Not sure, and only certain that I am scared to know. I’ll stick with blaming the color: orange. Seems safer.

  12. Pat Shepard says:

    I am so tired of the bad reporting. Obama won Nevada.

    The point to the caucus was to select delegates. The delegates won?

    Obama: 13
    Clinton: 12

    That’s an Obama win, not a Clinton one.

    You’d think after Gore’s “win” people would understand such things.

  13. Karl says:

    Actually, it’s not 100% that’s how the delegates will go by the end of the process, but yeah, plenty of bad reporting out there.

  14. thor says:

    Obama has a cool strut. I’d vote for him if I were a Dem.

  15. akc says:

    Are journalists writing these stories or idiotic misinformed media hacks? GET THE FACTS FIRST BEFORE YOU REPORT – PLEASE GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT BEFORE YOU POST MISINFORMATION!!
    NEVADA HAS NOT ASSIGNED NATIONAL DELEGATES! HILLARY CLINTON WON THE NEVADA CAUCUS!!!
    THE OFFICIAL statements from Nevada are:

    **OFFICIAL Statement by Nevada Democratic Party Chair Jill Derby: (Las Vegas, NV) “The Nevada Democratic Party and its officials have taken great effort to maintain our neutrality in the presidential campaign and the integrity of our process. Just like in Iowa, what was awarded today were delegates to the County Convention, of which Senator Clinton won the majority. No national convention delegates were awarded. We look forward to our county and state conventions where we will choose the delegates for the nominee that Nevadans support.”

    Las Vegas Sun latest report:
    Clinton’s win over Barack Obama in Nevada gives her much-needed momentum going into next Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic primary, where Obama was seen as having an advantage because of that state’s large African-American population.

    Her victory today included a stunning showing at the nine controversial at-large sites on the Las Vegas Strip — where she won seven of those precincts.

    However, during the late afternoon, the Culinary-backed Obama campaign tried to throw some cold water on Clinton’s victory.

    Using arcane caucus math and a formula that figured in Obama’s results in rural Nevada, his camp insisted that Obama actually won Nevada by taking 13 of the Silver State’s 25 national delegates. However, party leaders put out a statement saying Obama’s camp was flat wrong.

  16. B Moe says:

    “However, during the late afternoon, the Culinary-backed Obama campaign tried to throw some cold water on Clinton’s victory.”

    How many Nevada Democrat delegates can dance on the head of a rolling pin?

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