At the Politico, Jonathan Martin asks whether Mike Huckabee has a Catholic problem, presenting maps of Iowa from the PolySigh blog showing that Mitt Romney tended to best Huckabee in the more heavily Catholic counties. Actually, Martin focuses on the estern border counties, but the same trend appears — albeit more weakly — on the western border.
At InsideCatholic, Deal W. Hudson notes that Huckabee under-performed with Catholics again in New Hampshire. Hudson writes that Huckabee did almost twice as well with Protestants as he did with Catholics, though McCain did as well or better with Christians writ more broadly. I would note that the exit poll data linked there also shows that Huckabee under-performed with Catholics relative to his final vote share, while over-performing with Protestants.
Hudson points to at least two factors that may be relevant. First:
Huckabee’s campaign was being dogged with charges of anti-Catholicism stemming from, among other things, his recent appearance at John Hagee’s church in San Antonio.
Second, Hudson points to Huckabee’s style on the stump, noting a study of the Catholic vote which concluded in part that “effective political rhetoric will have different tones, different language, different emphases for Catholic and non-Catholic audiences.”
These points jumped out given the significant Catholic vote in Michigan, as noted at the Politico. However, they also jumped out because – even before the Iowa caucuses – frequent PW commenter Ric Locke was noting that Catholics could be brought into Huckabee’s orbit and potentially form a winning coalition in the primaries. Moreover, in Part 2 of this series, he and I discussed how Huckabee’s style is drawn directly from evangelical preaching, which Locke noted was a problem in setting up dialogue with Catholics, even on shared issue positions.
Huckabee’s rivals, however, seem to be largely missing another major point raised in this series, which is that Huckabee thrives in part due to the failure of his rivals to give any priority to social conservativism. There is some anecdotal evidence suggesting that Fred Thompson may have swayed some undecided Huckabee-leaning voters with his strong debate performance in Myrtle Beach. But Thompson’s critique of the Huckabee campaign resembling the the Democratic party more than the Reagan coalition is not entirely accurate and thus (imho) not entirely effective.ÂÂ
Most punditry on the Huckabee phenomenon tends to discuss it as a “fiscal cons vs. social cons” struggle. In this context, it is a false dichotomy. As some of the comments at the Politico piece show, pro-life Catholics are not necessarily attracted to the Huckabee economic agenda. Conversely, some fiscal cons are also social cons. I would suggest that Huckabee can appeal to the segment that might best be labeled Reagan Democrats — voters who do not have a problem with government intervention on social issues (and left the Democrats over the abortion issue), but also have no problem in principle with government intervention to help the poor and so on. This faction is most vigorously opposed by a segment of the GOP’s libertarian faction on both social and economic grounds. (Note: This is a segment of the libertarian faction because some libertarians are pro-life, including Ron Paul (TOMWCSA).)
Ric Locke and I agreed that Huckabee’s rivals should be emphasizing whatever degree of support they have for the social con agenda. As noted in prior installments of this series, I would also try to shake loose some Huckabee supporters by pointing out Huckabee’s various flip-flops, particularly on issues important to social cons relating to immigration, home-schooling and embryonic stem cell research.
With the exception of Thompson noted above, Huckabee’s rivals seem to be trying instead to co-opt Huckabee’s economic “populism” in style, if not always in substance. Sen. John McCain and Mitt Romney are clashing over proposals for jobs lost in Michigan’s manufacturing sector. From a tactical standpoint, this is not bad in and of itself. Economic insecurity is of concern to Huckabee voters and of voters beyond in the general election. In the event the economy weakens as November approaches, it will be a good thing to be on the record, though the substance of a candidate’s position will matter to fiscal cons as well.
Whether that strategy by itself will be enough for any of Huckabee’s rivals to keep him from prolonging the primary season and making it even more divisive and dispiriting for Republicans generally remains to be seen.
Update: The NYT has a new piece up on the contours of Huckabee’s base. Highlights include a quote from the Harris brothers, 19-year-old evangelical authors and speakers who grew up steeped in the conservative Christian movement, and the creators of Huck’s Army, an online network that has connected 12,000 Huckabee campaign volunteers:
The brothers fell for Mr. Huckabee last August when they saw him draw applause on “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart†for explaining that he believed in a Christian obligation to care for prenatal “life†and also education, health care, jobs and other aspects of “life.†“It is a new kind of evangelical conservative position,†Brett Harris said. Alex Harris added, “And we are not going to have to be embarrassed about him.â€Â
The NYT also highlights Rick Scarborough, an aspiring successor to the previous generation of conservative Christian leaders, who recently argued that his allies were wrong to balk at Mr. Huckabee’s turn toward environmentalism and “social justice.â€Â ÂÂ
Whiggery!
Actually, this whole thing is related to the variety of reactions to the Glenn Beck conversion story. It fits the fundamentalist Protestant pattern, insofar as Beck explicitly states that there’s no other authentic narrative of conversion (it’s related to the 12-Step one). There’s no arguing this. It rings true to those who have experienced it or to whom it makes fundamental psychological sense because of the structure of their beliefs. On the other hand, speaking as a Catholic, the idea of Pauline conversion is only one of manifold possibilities, and the rhetoric of inspiration is rather more muted, more distinctly contemplative.
So, you’re right that the stylistic differences are important. But more important is the Catholic’s impatience with anti-Catholic bigotry, overt or covert, as Catholicism is probably as truly multicultural as a movement gets, despite what the bashers say.
“But more important is the Catholic’s impatience with anti-Catholic bigotry”
I think I’d stick justifiable in front of impatience. Preacher Huck needs to clarify the depth of his adherence to doctrine just a tiny bit more. I fully expect any support among Catholics to diminish rather abrubtly with further exposure of exclusionary dogma.
I found Thompson’s critique very compelling. After watching the debate, I no longer support Huckabee and I definitely plan on voting for Fred.
happyfeet,
Few will fully appreciate just where that ranks in the pantheon of your comment-fu.
You know, I’m sick and tired of being sick an tired about people misusing the word ‘Catholic.’ I’m Orthodox and I’m Catholic, but I’m not Roman. Please, if you mean Roman Catholic, then write ‘Roman Catholic. Arghg.
I am also a Fred Thompson supporter. IMHO, Huckabee is a huckster. On illegal immigration, Huckabee sucks. He’s made all kinds of crazy arguments. He said Toyota wouldn’t do business in Arkansas if they didn’t give state benefits to illegal Mexican workers. He supports a federal law to ban smoking.
Huckabee is bad for religion. He’s bad for the rule of law. He’s bad for America.
they saw him draw applause on “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart†for explaining that he believed in a Christian obligation to care for prenatal “life†and also education, health care, jobs and other aspects of “life.†“It is a new kind of evangelical conservative position,â€Â
wait… its new for Christians and conservatives to think the church, family, and neighborhood should care for the poor, needy, and troubled? OH wait, I get it. It’s a new position for them to think the government should do so. New in this case meaning “mimicking the liberal” position.
Jeff aka Alcyoneus,
Point well taken. Catholics can be as heterogeneous as Protestants. Indeed, many remain Democrats.
In my defense, the polling data does not account for different types of Catholics in the way that it usually does for Protestants.
I was all in for Huckabee until I saw him say something on TV like Senator Thompson needs a laxative ?? I saw the debate where Thompson accused Huckabee of being a liberal and attacked Huckabee’s record, and I thought Huckabee’s response about taking flak was good not funny but good. But then the next day to insult the man instead of his record was not what I would expect of a top tier candidate baptist minister. I asked myself what would Jesus do ?? So I think Thompson has come alive and showed much more maturity he talks about substance not the process as others Fred you have my vote!
Scooter: look up what Huckabee’s stances are on various issues, as well as what he’s done in the past. He’s a liberal other than being against abortion. That’s no candidate we need for president. He’s one of the worst choices in the GOP battery right now.
Huckabee has me wondering what the Church is preaching these days, God’s words or Marx’s words; I mean, can Huckabee really mandate Christ?
And if Huckabee can mandate Christ, isn’t he saying he is bigger than Christ?
Give Huckabee some credit. He has yet to claim that he’s bigger than The Beatles.
But more important is the Catholic’s impatience with anti-Catholic bigotry, overt or covert
Roman Catholic (you happy Jeff?) conservative I will repeat, again, I get a strong whiff of Jack T. Chick, old timey lowbrow backwoods Calvinism off of Mr. Huckabee. It’s not that he went after Romney, since Mormonism is theologically unsound from a small-o orthodox Christian standpoint. The way he went after Romney, however, made me pretty sure about his general attitude about people who don’t share his particular interpretation of the one true faith. There is a certain style attached to populist lowbrow Calvinism – Mencken captured it nicely in his ridiculously over-the-top slander of Jennings Bryan’s involvement in the Scopes Monkey Trial. I grew up around fundamentalist evangelicals, and I have a good gut feeling about where individual evangelicals are coming from. A questioning ‘do you believe on Christ’ or ‘I have reservations about the welfare of your soul, brother’ is one thing; the lowbrow Calvinists dispense with those niceties and cut straight to the chase about the Roman Church being the Whore of Bablyon, etc. There’s a bit of that in the bombs Huck lobbed at Mitt. As I said before I don’t positively *know* that he is of that mindset; what I do know is the Calvinists I’ve known who go after the LDS in that particular fashion tend to attack us bloody papists in the same manner. It’s a style thing – just as Big Papi isn’t much of a bunter, the Calvinists who paint with a broad brush the Mormons tend to swing a big stick and splatter Roman Catholics (and Orthodox Catholics) in the same fashion. You can joke about all forms of Catholicism being rules-based, but rules-based doesn’t necessarily mean simple-minded and un-nuanced – our approach to other faiths (and righteous pagans) when you get to the higher levels of education in the faith is actually pretty subtle and rejecting of Huck’s categorical approach.
Yeah, he talks well. Yeah, some reasonably smart non-Catholics I know are taken by the guy. *None* of the Catholics I know like him and almost all of them (admittedly a small sample, and an over-educated one at that) recoil from Huck. Their disgust is frequently palpable. It’s like a reverse dog whistle. Which is funny, because scratch a Catholic, you’ll find a paternalist. Huck’s positions, insofar as he really believes them, *should* be an easy sell with us. You have to ask what it is that he’s doing that is botching the sale.
BTW, I’m a Fred guy all the way, have been all along, if that matters…
…old timey lowbrow backwoods Calvinism off of Mr. Huckabee
Trust me as a Calvinist… there’s nothing of the sort off him. Look toward Charles Finney, not John Calvin.
[…] far failed to gain meaningful support outside evangelical Christians. This dynamic, particularly Huckabee’s difficulty with Catholic voters, was a topic of discussion of discussion here well before the Michigan primary. That Huckabee […]
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