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Set phasers to PANIC [UPDATE]

New Bin Laden tape set to be released within the next 72 hours. Just in time for a long-promised special gift come 9/11!

Miraculously, early video captures from the tape suggest that Bin Laden appears to be growing younger. Which, I hate to say, suggests that his God is a lot more powerful than one who occasionally makes an appearance in a tortilla or in the bark of a tree, or who sends one of his lackeys to speak cryptically with a couple-three peasant girls at Fatima.

Allah be praised.

My wife, incidentally, has travel plans for the 11th. I’m thinking I might have to strap her to the sofa until this thing plays out.

Don’t question my patriotism, though. I just bought a new dishwasher and washer/dryer set from Sears. So I’m doing my part to fight terrorism by keeping the economy humming along.

(h/t STACLU)

****
update: 42% of Democrats polled believe the new bin Laden tape will feature Ron Silver in a robe and theatrical beard extensions — and that anything that blows up from here on out is proof positive that Bushco is invested in keeping the phony War on Terror alive, even if it means planning stealth demolitions, or dragging Karl Rove out of retirement so that he can don his ninja gear, head to the East Village, and detonate a radiological weapon himself.

****
update: Anybody with a strong background in finance, investment, and economics care to comment on this?:

In the weeks preceding the 2001 attacks on America, there were very significant financial warning signs that something big – and bad – could be about to happen. Huge surges in purchases of “put options” on stocks of United Airlines and American Airlines, the two airlines used in the attacks, and “put options” on Merrill Lynch & Co., and Morgan Stanley, stocks of two financial services companies hurt by the attack were noted. Put options are essentially “bets” that a stock or stock index will drop on or before a certain date; the larger the drop, the bigger the gain for the purchaser of the option.

Fast forward to the present day, and we have the same type of trading that took place in the days that preceded the 9/11 attacks – but on a larger scale. Nearly $1 billion of “put options” have been purchased, basically betting that Standard and Poor’s 500 index will fall significantly by the third Friday in September. A large number of these options have also been purchased calling for 50% decline by September 21, 2007. For example, a 5% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be the current equivalent of about 670 points. A decline of 11% would equal about 1,470 points in today’s market. Obviously, larger drops, such as a 50% decline, would cause an unprecedented market collapse. Money would be made for the purchaser(s) of the put options – but the same purchaser(s) stand to lose over $1 BILLION in the investment if the market remains relatively static through September 21, 2007.

The questions are: who can stand to lose $1 BILLION, who will gain in the wake of such a devastating collapse, who are the investors, and what do they know that we don’t?

(h/t Aldo)

56 Replies to “Set phasers to PANIC [UPDATE]”

  1. Scott R says:

    I noticed that Rusty’s list of terrorist supporting websites doesn’t include dailykos or the DNC website. That’s more restraint than I would have shown.

  2. ThomasD says:

    I’m thinking I might have to strap her to the sofa until this thing plays out.

    Should have spent all that appliance loot on a four-poster instead…

  3. Anachronda says:

    Karl Rove didn’t retire. He just redeployed to an undisclosed location, making it easier to use him for covert ops.

  4. Cowboy says:

    I’m thinking I might have to strap her to the sofa until this thing plays out.

    Yeah, because of the TERROR THHREAT!!!

  5. bfwebster says:

    Obviously, you didn’t see this link:

    http://www.politicsfromtheheart.com/2007/09/is-cheney-about-to-blow-up-bay-bridge.html

    I like the fact that it’s Cheney, not Bush, who’s going to blow up the Bay Bridge. ..bruce..

  6. happyfeet says:

    I have to fly on the 11th. It would be sweet if lots of people decided not to. Kind of like that day without immigrants thing.

  7. Great Mencken's Ghost says:

    You got a new dishwasher/dryer set. Why do you need a wife?

  8. …or dragging Karl Rove out of retirement so that he can don his ninja gear, head to the East Village, and detonate a radiological weapon himself.

    Judging by the way proggs react at the mere thought of him, it’s possible that Rove is a radiological weapon himself.

  9. Major John says:

    How do you make a new tape when you are DEAD. UBL is, and has been, Purina Vulture Chow for many moons now. Man this tape recycling effort is gettin’ old…

    Oh, and we have been promised doom, despair and agony on me for years by the remnants of AQ – hasn’t happened yet, and I don’t think freezing in place on September 11th is necessary.

  10. Ardsgaine says:

    You got a new dishwasher/dryer set. Why do you need a wife?

    Because he’s not a member of the 1%?

  11. happyfeet says:

    I think he’s dead too. Megalomaniacs are just never this circumspect. cf. Keith Olbermann.

  12. DanG says:

    “Miraculously, early video captures from the tape suggest that Bin Laden appears to be growing younger.”

    So you’re implying they don’t have Just For Men in Pakistan? I think Keith Hernandez and Walt Clyde Fraizer would have something to say about that.

  13. dicentra says:

    dragging Karl Rove out of retirement

    Oh, if only you wingers knew the truth:

    Karl Rove’s Sith mentor died yesterday, so you know what THAT means.

    I question the timing…

  14. McGehee says:

    You know, Osama and that creepy Burger King guy have never been photographed together…

    If you need me I’ll be under my bed.

  15. New Bin Laden Tape Coming?…

    Via Stop The ACLU, Rusty at The Jawa Report has the staight deal about some confirmation from a jihadi website of this

    DEVELOPING STORY: Federal counterterrorism officials are analyzing a posting on an Islamic forum Web site that warns of "a spec…

  16. The Ouroboros says:

    Because he’s not a member of the 1%?

    We dont know that for sure… Jeff has been doing that Yoga thing..

  17. The Ouroboros says:

    one who occasionally makes an appearance in a tortilla

    Does that mean that Elvis is God? I mean, I know it’s no tortilla or anything but one time I made this totally mouthwatering Pastrami on marbled rye.. I’m talkin lean pastrami stacked up to here. It was to die for.. Anyway, just as I was about to dig in I happened to look down, and there he was..staring at me with that kinda half snarl sneer..a photo perfect image of.. The King.. Elvis.. I was stunned for a moment but then he started talking to me.. gettin all preachy and shit.. giving me commandment like ‘Thou shall this..” and “Thou shalt not that..”.. Hell, I had enough of that crap when I was married, so I just bit his head off…

  18. McGehee says:

    Does that mean that Elvis is God?

    I once had a girl tell me I looked like Elvis. However, since he’d been dead four years by that time, I can’t be sure it was meant as a compliment.

  19. dick says:

    No, right about now, Peyton Manning is God.

  20. Aldo says:

    Kos Kids are calling BS: “scare tactics from Bush.”

    Here are some more interesting Bushco scare tactics, suggesting a possible upcoming attack.

  21. Cafe Alpha says:

    Interesting. Robert Spencer quoted this the other day:
    “strike terror into the hearts of the enemies of Allah” (Qur’an 8:60)

    I was going to quote him for this thread, but then I looked it up.

    Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power, including steeds of war, to strike terror into (the hearts of) the enemies, of Allah and your enemies, and others besides, whom ye may not know, but whom Allah doth know. Whatever ye shall spend in the cause of Allah, shall be repaid unto you, and ye shall not be treated unjustly.

    In context it doesn’t say much that a hawk like you or me would disagree with. It says to prepare for war, not to make war. It says that preparing will strike terror in the hearts of your enemies (and the “enemies of Allah” bit is the part we would disagree with), but it also says that it will strike terror in the hearts of those who are not your enemy. And that people will treat you justly and that the cost will be worth it.

    Then it winds down to verse 8.63 which seems downright friendly.

    Then it completely contradicts itself in verse 8.65 which is a psychotic, “kill them all, you can do it!” kind of thing. The koran doesn’t just contradict itself, it’s a complete psychotic rant that contradicts itself immediately and within a sentence. Ravings of a madman, I think.

  22. The Ouroboros says:

    A girl once told me I looked like Elton John. However, since he’s an aging, pudgy, bitchy, gay man I can’t be sure it was meant as a compliment.

  23. happyfeet says:

    You are so not allowed to interpret the koran, Cafe Alpha person. You have to be like… I can’t remember. It was in that video earlier. And really, when the video said that, it seemed sort of reasonable in the sense that that sort of edict so perfectly captures a pre-Reformation mindset. The conversation isn’t about interpretation. It’s about modernity.

  24. TmjUtah says:

    How do you make a new tape when you are DEAD. UBL is, and has been, Purina Vulture Chow for many moons now. Man this tape recycling effort is gettin’ old…

    Maj. John, they are going to release through Rueters, obviously. NO ONE WILL THINK TWICE IF THE FRAMES JUMP A BIT… or we get five seconds of some Saudi Prince’s “What I did in Pattaya on my summer vacation”.

    My two cents: We are about to see a redux squared of the Flying Arab Musicians, Praying Imams, and very possibly a few million plunked down for issue ads via CAIR/MSA.

    And the DNC will be right there downplaying any attack indicators and minimizing any security successes.

    Because they have chosen sides.

    Schumer’s statements of the last few days have made it clear that the Left/DNC has surrendered to al Q. Not chosen to ignore them or to pretend that they have the power to exploit them, but they’ve signed on for spanish or ROK terms.

    They’ve doubled down on defeat. This is going to be one hell of an election cycle.

    Al Q, the Sauds, and the Chinese are betting on our Left and our media. No shooting here until after the election, at least.

    May God forgive me if I’m wrong about that.

  25. TmjUtah says:

    Forgive me for the “No shooting here” part. Just to be clear.

  26. The Ouroboros says:

    BUSHCO SCAR TACTICS: Ref Aldo #20

    “..same type of trading that took place in the days that preceded the 9/11 attacks – but on a larger scale. Nearly $1 billion of “put options” have been purchased, basically betting that Standard and Poor’s 500 index will fall significantly by the third Friday in September. A large number of these options have also been purchased calling for 50% decline by September 21, 2007.”

    Anyone know the source for the above? Is this being reported by anyone other than the Northeast Intell Network?

    Is a billion in “Put Options” really unusual? If so, who would have a billion to lose just to create a few weeks of nervousness?

  27. Old Texas Turkey says:

    the option thing is true – highest recorded open interest at the 700 strike for Sept OEX 100 CALLS, not puts. someone threw down some big dough to buy those way in the money calls. its been point of discussion on the trading chat sites for a few weeks now.

  28. Nick says:

    I was under the impression that most (if not all)of the put options against the airlines were entirely unrelated to 9/11. Market expectations were that airline stocks were going to drop, and most of the puts had a strike price at or only slightly below the market price at the time of purchase. If you knew for a fact that the airlines were going to drop the way they did after 9/11, you’d buy up puts that were enough below the current strike price that they were selling for almost nothing, you’d make a lot bigger profit that way. Thats not what people did.

    As for the current situation, in case you haven’t noticed, the stock market has been a little volatile lately. A billion in puts doesn’t seem that odd. If most of that billion were for the 50% decline by the 21st, that would be odd, although I would still guess that it has more to do with the banking “crisis” than an expected attack.

  29. Patricia says:

    Also, there will be a lunar eclipse this year on September 11th.

    Whatever the hell that means.

  30. Cafe Alpha says:

    The questions are: who can stand to lose $1 BILLION, who will gain in the wake of such a devastating collapse, who are the investors, and what do they know that we don’t?

    Holy fucking crap!

  31. kyle says:

    “If you knew for a fact that the airlines were going to drop the way they did after 9/11, you’d buy up puts that were enough below the current strike price that they were selling for almost nothing, you’d make a lot bigger profit that way. Thats not what people did.”

    I would guess – and it’s just a guess – that they avoided make dramatic put plays to avoid arousing attention before the attacks. While abnormal in volume, the puts they purchased were lean enough in margin that they didn’t raise the alarm bells they otherwise might have

  32. D B says:

    Regarding that scare-mongering update about financial markets:

    The 9/11 Commission looked into the rumors of suspicious trading in the days before the attacks, and found nothing sinister. Here’s what they reported:

    Highly publicized allegations of insider trading in advance of 9/11 generally rest on reports of unusual pre-9/11 trading activity in companies whose stock plummeted after the attacks. Some unusual trading did in fact occur, but each such trade proved to have an innocuous explanation. For example, the volume of put options — instruments that pay off only when a stock drops in price — surged in the parent companies of United Airlines on September 6 and American Airlines on September 10 — highly suspicious trading on its face. Yet, further investigation has revealed that the trading had no connection with 9/11. A single U.S.-based institutional investor with no conceivable ties to al Qaeda purchased 95 percent of the UAL puts on September 6 as part of a trading strategy that also included buying 115,000 shares of American on September 10. Similarly, much of the seemingly suspicious trading in American on September 10 was traced to a specific U.S.-based options trading newsletter, faxed to its subscribers on Sunday, September 9, which recommended these trades. The SEC and FBI, aided by other agencies and the securities industry, devoted enormous resources to investigating this issue, including securing the cooperation of many foreign governments. These investigators have found that the apparently suspicious consistently proved innocuous.

    Snopes has more.

    I’d wager that strange and “scary” trading patterns will appear in any randomly-selected market session spanning a few days. It’s extremely rare, however, that a pattern indicates trading on inside information.

  33. Cafe Alpha says:

    Correction, on a closer parsing of that sura, it means that by spending on military you not only frighten your enemies that you know about, but you also frighten enemies that you don’t know about. That’s what “whom ye may not know, but whom Allah doth know” refers to.

  34. klrtz1 says:

    A billion sounds like a lot of money until you realize thats how much congress uses to wipe their ass every morning. I hope some terrorist financer was stupid enough to leave a money trail right to themselves.

  35. klrtz1 says:

    Probably not though.

  36. Big Bang (Pumping you up) says:

    – “Puts” are generally pared with “Takes” in what is commonly called a straddle in an overall tactic called a “stop loss”, trying to avoid large losses from unexpected spikes in dynamic market areas. Thus they are typically insurance, but even more pensive than in black jack. Nothing to see here folks, move along…..(But it sounds sinister to non-market people, so is grist for the Left-wing conspiracy factories….)

    – Now evidence of a massive upsurge in “shorts” on the named targets, in an obvious overwhelming peak in trade orders, just a few days or hours prior to 9/11, then you’d get my attention.

  37. klrtz1 says:

    The Democrats seem to believe that another terror attack on U.S. soil would help Republicans. That may be true simply because the Democrats have become the anti-war (on terror) party. They’ve made it “Bush’s war”. Democrats occasionally talk tough but they haven’t taken any actions to support a war on terror since congress voted to invade Iraq. The Democrats have taken some actions to inhibit the war on terror, particularly in the area of intelligence gathering. So if there is another major attack, the Democrats won’t be able to simply claim to have a better way to fight the war than Bush does. That may not stop them from making such claims but it will mean they won’t be believed.

    So I think its more likely that after the next attack the Democrats will become the party of surrender. That’s certainly the way they’re trending now and being pulled by ANSWER, Move On, Kos, etc. Of course they’ll call themselves the party of peace. They’ll ask “Do you want war or do you want peace?” The blog trolls will tell you no one signed any surrender documents, “Where’s the signed surrender documents?” they’ll ask over and over and over again. Deny, deny, deny, obfuscate. But they’ll be quoting the koran and instituting sharia as fast as they can.

    I don’t think it will work out for them. I don’t think the American public wants sharia. I don’t think the American public wants to surrender. I think the Democratic Party is doomed, if Al Qaida pulls off another attack more horrendous than the one on September 11, 2001.

    On the other hand, maybe the MSM could just not cover it. If nobody knows, what’s the harm?

  38. Big Bang (Pumping you up) says:

    – Since Patrais is scheduled to give a favorable indisputable accounting of the surge shortly, and various members of the SurrenderCrats have slepped to Iraq and seen the disheartening evidence for themselves, the Dems have switched gamnits in the past few says to; “Yes its true the sutge has worked, and so thats an even better reason to bring the troops home now”.

    – The Dems are getting desperate to find a way to push Iraq into the “resolved” column. They simply cannot win in 2008 if it remains one of the biggies, particularly since they bet on that approach with all their eggs in a basket that at least gives them the appearence of dhimmitude surrender monkies, hell bent on obstructing American success. They are totally convinced that history will not be broken,(American voters have never changed horses in the White house in a time of war, declared or not), and thus the WOT must be nade to go away, or they are toast. Thats why the unending denial at every opportunity.

  39. N. O'Brain says:

    Nothing says “conspiracy” like publicly announcing your intentions.

    I’m sorry, but I have to say it:

    Troooothersâ„¢ are insane.

  40. Matt, Esq. says:

    *I don’t think the American public wants sharia. *

    The problem is, 45% of the American public would rather have sharia rather than Bush. And many of them think Sharia is the Latin singer with the amazing hips.

  41. N. O'Brain says:

    I’ve said it before, but Screw Loose Change

    http://screwloosechange.blogspot.com/

    is an interesting web site, a couple of debunkers who seem to attract Troooothersâ„¢ like flies to honey.

    The interesting part is watching the Troooothersâ„¢ jiggle, jump, dance and evade to avoid being contaminated with any touch of truth or reality.

    To a Trooootherâ„¢, 2+2 never equals 4, 2+2=a government consporacy, controlled demolition, thermite or Da Jooooooos.

    Of course try and pin them down as to why it was necessary to use thermite on the WTC towers when they were wired for a contolled demolition, or why it was necessary to use controlled demolition if the WTC towers were rigged with thermite.

  42. N. O'Brain says:

    As a side note “a government consporacy” is Karl Rove trying to infect everyone with penicillin mold.

  43. A fine scotch says:

    Jeff,

    Re: your second update

    Wasn’t that the basic plot to “Casino Royale”?

  44. Percy Dovetonsils says:

    A billion dollars is not a whole lot of money in the derivatives market.

    Also, the Fed announces on September 18th whether it’s going to cut rates or not. The market anticipates 25, maybe 50 basis points in cuts.

    However, Bernanke is loath to be seen as “bailing out” investors in the subprime fiasco for their stupidity – he wants to eliminate “moral hazard” in the markets. So there’s a decent chance that the Fed will hold back on rate cuts.

    If that happens, the stock market will stamp its collective foot and throw a tantrum. Prices of the major indexes will drop significantly.

    It’s not a bad bet, although this morning’s weak job numbers may give the Fed some cover to dole out a rate cut on the 18th.

  45. Phil Smith says:

    Imbeciles, the lot of them. The 9/11 puts were thoroughly investigated. One investor was responsible for 95% of the puts – he also purchased outright 115,000 shares of the same airline.

    This particular event is just a box spread, similar to the strategy mentioned by Big Bang above.

    http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=15498575&t=0&all=0

  46. Slartibartfast says:

    Of course try and pin them down as to why it was necessary to use thermite on the WTC towers when they were wired for a contolled demolition, or why it was necessary to use controlled demolition if the WTC towers were rigged with thermite.

    No, you don’t understand. Percy, Percy, Percy: the controlled demolition was accomplished using thermite as cutting charges! How hard is that to understand? I mean, it doesn’t cut quite so much as melt, but that’s one of the niggling little engineering details that guys who know absolutely nothing about it are hard at work solving.

  47. Slartibartfast says:

    Oh, sorry, that should have been addressed to N. O’Brain.

    But hey! Look! Orbital lasers!

  48. BJTexs says:

    So Osama bin Hiden will appear in another video.

    Somebody needs to make sure Frank Oz hasn’t disappeared. Cuz if Osama starts singin’…

  49. anon says:

    The “Northeast Intelligence Network” is not a credible source. They are an alarmist group led by a former private investigator in Erie, PA. They have a long track record of statements which have not been borne out by reality, to put it mildly. Does anyone remember their claims regarding the “attacks” planned for the Greek Olympics? Moreover, they have engaged in more than a few grandstanding stunts involving actual critical infrastructure in the country… such as having a “lawyer” running around trying to play secret squirrel down in Miami a few years back. (Funny how the “clandestine missions” of amateurs and wannabes always happen in the nice parts of the world, versus the desert or the backwater slums?)

  50. Rob Crawford says:

    No opinion on the Northeast whatever, but it’s kinda funny to see an anonymous attack on them…

  51. Percy Dovetonsils says:

    Slartibartfast, thanks for the clarification.

    It’s hard enough at my job, trying to read the Fed’s tea leaves. If I had to start developing a working knowledge of explosives, too…

  52. SeanH says:

    Going by that blurb I’d say the guy actually understands next to nothing about economics. First, a billion isn’t that much. Second, it’s practically always a record year for options trading volume. We set a record this year, last year, and the year before that. Third, nobody’s betting the market’s going to collapse. Stock options are contracts on specific stocks, not the market in general. Pick any month at random and somebody’s stock is going down 50% even when the market in general is totally kicking ass. Fourth, even if the all the options expire worthless the buyers aren’t going to lose anything close to a billion dollars. Only 30% of all options expire worthless and only 10% expire in the money. Usually a buyer sells his option back into the market before it expires and a seller buys it back to close.

  53. SeanH says:

    That should be “even if none of the options mature in the money” I guess, but you get the point.

  54. […] Jeff suggests that the upcoming phonus-balonus bin Laden tape might contain an important lesson for us all: Miraculously, early video captures from the tape suggest that Bin Laden appears to be growing younger. Which, I hate to say, suggests that his God is a lot more powerful than one who occasionally makes an appearance in a tortilla or in the bark of a tree, or who sends one of his lackeys to speak cryptically with a couple-three peasant girls at Fatima. […]

  55. […] means that it’s quite possible bin Laden is dead as a boot — and that my theory about the CIA using Ron Silver with beard extensions as a bin Laden stand in is still very much in […]

  56. czekmark says:

    I completely agree with those that posted that the panic of possibly losing 1 billion in market transactions is a red herring. One billion is almost nothing to the many trillions invested in the market. About 5 trillion alone is invested in stock mutual funds and who knows how many trillions are invested in individual stocks.

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