November 9, 2012

“Why Hispanics Don’t Vote for Republicans”

Not surprisingly, their voting choices have nothing to do with the amnesty pander now being pushed by the same people who keep steering us down disastrous electoral paths and everything to do with why that very amnesty pander — that is, trying to co-opt the tactics of the left — will only in the long-term create more leftists and more leftism.

Heather McDonald, breaking down the numbers:

If Republicans want to change their stance on immigration, they should do so on the merits, not out of a belief that only immigration policy stands between them and a Republican Hispanic majority. It is not immigration policy that creates the strong bond between Hispanics and the Democratic party, but the core Democratic principles of a more generous safety net, strong government intervention in the economy, and progressive taxation. Hispanics will prove to be even more decisive in the victory of Governor Jerry Brown’s Proposition 30, which raised upper-income taxes and the sales tax, than in the Obama election.

And California is the wave of the future. A March 2011 poll by Moore Information found that Republican economic policies were a stronger turn-off for Hispanic voters in California than Republican positions on illegal immigration. Twenty-nine percent of Hispanic voters were suspicious of the Republican party on class-warfare grounds — “it favors only the rich”; “Republicans are selfish and out for themselves”; “Republicans don’t represent the average person”– compared with 7 percent who objected to Republican immigration stances.

I spoke last year with John Echeveste, founder of the oldest Latino marketing firm in southern California, about Hispanic politics. “What Republicans mean by ‘family values’ and what Hispanics mean are two completely different things,” he said. “We are a very compassionate people, we care about other people and understand that government has a role to play in helping people.”

And a strong reason for that support for big government is that so many Hispanics use government programs. U.S.-born Hispanic households in California use welfare programs at twice the rate of native-born non-Hispanic households. And that is because nearly one-quarter of all Hispanics are poor in California, compared to a little over one-tenth of non-Hispanics. Nearly seven in ten poor children in the state are Hispanic, and one in three Hispanic children is poor, compared to less than one in six non-Hispanic children. One can see that disparity in classrooms across the state, which are chock full of social workers and teachers’ aides trying to boost Hispanic educational performance.

The idea of the “social issues” Hispanic voter is also a mirage. A majority of Hispanics now support gay marriage, a Pew Research Center poll from last month found. The Hispanic out-of-wedlock birth rate is 53 percent, about twice that of whites.

The demographic changes set into motion by official and de facto immigration policy favoring low-skilled over high-skilled immigrants mean that a Republican party that purports to stand for small government and free markets faces an uncertain future.

[my emphases]

It’s clear the left wishes to keep an open border in order to bring in future Democratic voters — specifically, those who make most use of government services and whose lack of social capital, from struggles with the language to poor education, from the start prevents them from moving into higher-paying jobs.  That is, the left is importing future clients, whose votes can be had for a growing of the welfare state.

That the tone-deaf leadership in the GOP and the “conservative” opinion outlets are even considering the pragmatism of identity politics pandering is already quite depressing. But even more so is that they are in such a rush to copy the left’s playbook that they can’t even be bothered to understand what their own should be telling them.  That goes for the editorial board at the WSJ, too, whose open borders stance is less about principle than it is about cheap labor.

The way forward with the Hispanic vote is to seal the borders, preach first principles, reaffirm the necessity of assimilation, show the way out of dependency, and reject things like “comprehensive immigration reform,” which won’t help you with Hispanics and will most certainly cost you what’s left of your base.

 

Posted by Jeff G. @ 2:07pm
108 comments | Trackback

Comments (108)

  1. I don’t follow you, Jeff. We want to embrace immigration reform in order to more efficiently give them access to endless Democrat free candy. What could go wrong?

  2. Team R is a ruined brand all the way around… it can’t be relaunched… it’d be like calling a new breakfast cereal “hepatitis-o’s”

  3. A March 2011 poll by Moore Information found that Republican economic policies were a stronger turn-off for Hispanic voters in California than Republican positions on illegal immigration.

    Y’know how we complain about Californians who move into our states to escape the hopeless economic wreck their homeland has become, only to support and demand and enact the very same policies that made their original home uninhabitable to begin with?

    Yeah, that.

    And California is the wave of the future.

    Oh, how I wish she were wrong…

  4. There’s a very easy way Republican Party can get more Hispanic votes: by offering them more free shit than the Democrats. Being a half-honky, half-frito bandito, mackerel-snapper, heteronormative Texan imperialist who was born and raised in a Texas bordertown with a 95% Hispanic population, I would know. And it’s certainly easier than bothering to articulate first principles; besides, that’s just so Visigothy anyway.

  5. Saw this yesterday and was struck by this:
    I spoke last year with John Echeveste, founder of the oldest Latino marketing firm in southern California, about Hispanic politics. “What Republicans mean by ‘family values’ and what Hispanics mean are two completely different things,” he said. “We are a very compassionate people, we care about other people and understand that government has a role to play in helping people.”

    Ain’t that some industrial strength spin? So, taking money from me and giving it to someone else represents compassion? Maybe they should show their care by demanding that every last one of them be put back on the tax rolls, so as to show that they are willing to contribute to the collective. Government is that thing that we all do together, after all.

  6. Rush made the point today that G. H. W. Bush’s share of the hispanic vote in 88 was 7% lower than Reagan’s in 84. Two years after amnesty.

    My guess is the actual numbers are approximate.

  7. This RCP article may or may not be relevant. I don’t know.

    effing thing crashed my browser.

  8. “What Republicans mean by ‘family values’ and what Hispanics mean are two completely different things,” he said. “We are a very compassionate people, we care about other people and understand that government has a role to play in helping people.”

    Nonetheless, there’s something to work with in there. The question isn’t about helping people or not, or whether or not government has a role, but how central or predominant a role government should have. Does government do a better job of helping people than people do.

    Another example from Rush today. He led off the show with this. Hizzoner, Doomburg, has decreed that there shalt not be home cooked meals for the homeless. Why? Because there’s no way for the government to measure the salt and fat levels in the food.

    Better that the people go hungry than eat something salty and fatty, sayeth the government.

    That’s the kind of anecdote that Reagan wielded like a 44th level ninja assassin.

    We need to learn how to do that again.

  9. The fundamental problem is is that these people aren’t lying when they say that the time of the middle aged white guy is over, and that new cultures are here and going to displace the obsolete culture of the middle age white guy.

    Even thought middle aged white guys are responsible for most of western civilization and the modern world.

    If you want a real picture of the future, don’t look to Europe, look at South Africa.

    If you think I am a babbling racist, read How the Scots Invented the Modern World

  10. Indeed. We are doomed.

  11. The thing is, most of these former Spanish colonies remain deeply dysfunctional, distorted by centuries of feudal class structures. What we see are societies that continue to struggle with the idea of a healthy bourgeoisie, because they were stuck with an aristocracy lording over poor peasants since the days of the conquistadors.

    The idea of free agency, and local associations banding together to solve local problems, is quaint to the point of seeming foreign even to our neighbors who descended from the Enlightenment. Just imagine how bizarre such things must seem to those who never had the option to associate, because they had no wealth to share in the first place.

    Our job, as Jeff notes, is to teach first principles again, and to teach them to everybody, regardless of color or birthplace. People of every background need to re-learn “Fix It Yourself” as a guiding principle, instead of going to the Courthouse or the Statehouse or the Capitol begging for somebody else to take care of it. And people of every background need to rediscover that when the politician says he’ll fix your problem, he means to use your time and money to do it. Why not eliminate the middleman?

    We’ll win Hispanic support the same we win support from everybody else, because we don’t recognize that Hispanic concerns are intrinsically different from those of any free citizen. Of course, this assumes that people of whatever color or background actually want to be free and self-reliant. Which is an assumption that has really been biting me on the ass of late.

  12. the more Team R problematizes hispanics the worse it’ll get i think

    nobody likes to be problematized

  13. Numbers not matching your worldview, happy?

  14. Victor Davis Hanson has written numerous columns detailing the two Californias: the law-abiding citizens whom the state and local authorities regulate, tax and police heavily & the transient immigrant population that perpetuates its carefree and lawless lifestyle because the authorities don’t bother enforcing their numerous tax, zoning, vehicular, etc. violations.
    It’s astounding that the GOP thinks they can convince THIS population to vote for them. Ever. And we’ll only get more of this with concessions on immigration.

  15. Hizzoner, Doomburg, has decreed that there shalt not be home cooked meals for the homeless. Why? Because there’s no way for the government to measure the salt and fat levels in the food.

    Better that the people go hungry than eat something salty and fatty, sayeth the government.

    That’s the kind of anecdote that Reagan wielded like a 44th level ninja assassin.

    We need to learn how to do that again.

    Agreed.

    But I didn’t even hear about this. Got a link? Need to add it facebook and other social media outlets.

  16. hispanics are just a subset of white people

    there are other subsets as well like non-Hispanic whites and your different classes and levels of educational attainment and such

    but c’mon team R needs to start with rethinking the rape baby thing before tackling tricky demographical stuff

  17. Epcot is the gayest lamest place on erf btw

    it’s supremely glame

    they still have captain eo for fuck’s sake

    probably just for the Europeans, which are kinda like a weird subset of white people all to themselves

  18. Latinos have a much different point of reference when it comes to the term “conservative” and class-warfare rhetoric.

    Remember that the Spanish recreated the European feudal system in their colonies. The first on shore were conquistadores, not religious pilgrims. The soldiers got lands and haciendas as a reward for their service to the Crown for conquering the land and bringing back gobs of gold and silver and slaves to Spain.

    The Spanish concept of honor prohibited soldiers from debasing themselves with manual labor; similarly, other nobles and favorites of the king were awarded land and slaves, and they also were exempted from working.

    There has never been Homestead Act or Protestant work ethic in the Spanish-American cultures: the Catholic church functioned only to reinforce the feudal order, wherein the peasants were to resign themselves to their fate as their betters lived high on the hog. The Latino Catholic church, to this day, does an abysmal job of instilling Christian virtues; for most Latino Catholics, it’s all about praying to the Virgin to win the lottery and going to midnight Mass on Dec. 24th to see what everyone is wearing to the subsequent all-night parties.

    Consequently, the “conservatives” in their countries are the legacy land-owners and the Church: those who actually did have (and still have) a monopoly on power. Their only political opponents are the various flavors of Marxists who gin the natives up on populist rhetoric and dreams of eating the rich. Of course, the Marxists merely occupy the seats of power themselves and the peasants continue eating dirt, but that doesn’t stop the next crop of Marxists from insisting that THIS time, the people will get a fair share of the pie.

    Es el mismo circo con otros payasos (Same circus, new clowns)” they say of the endless revolutions.

    But they never had Founders like ours; never had an in-bred love of liberty and the free market and other Enlightenment traditions. (Simón Bolívar came close, but his legacy did not endure as he’d hoped, cf. Hugo Chávez’s co-opting of Bolívar’s name for his Fascist state.)

    Their grandparents’ generation never did the “too proud to accept charity” thing. Their societies are so corrupt, for so long, that they figure they might as well get what they can while the gittin’s good, because there’s no rags-to-riches path to betterment in their countries that doesn’t involve marrying up, criminality, or political corruption.

    You can also forget about “family values.” It’s true that their families tend to stick together, but when it comes to chastity and marriage and fidelity, those concepts are nearly non-existent. Again, the Latino Catholic church does NOT teach young women to wait or young men to cool it. Men feel entitled to marry one woman and then start a second or even third family with another woman, telling the new ones that they don’t need a piece of paper to prove their love. Those who don’t actually shack up with another woman still feel entitled to tomcat about, and the women just have to sit there and take it, because who else is there?

    The Hispanics are therefore NOT natural Republicans. They are extremely vulnerable to class-warfare rhetoric, because entrenched class privilege still holds sway in their homelands, and the family values thing isn’t really part of their traditional ethic. The Mormon Latinos who I know are much closer to being Republicans, because we tend to attract the ones who pick up on the Protestant work ethic and other morals; however, they’re in the minority.

    It was always wishful thinking on the part of the GOP that they’d get their hands on this enormous new voting bloc. Not sure where it came from, but it’s just another in a long line of estupideces on their part.

  19. The thing is, most of these former Spanish colonies remain deeply dysfunctional, distorted by centuries of feudal class structures.

    No fair. I took more time to compose my diatribe.

  20. The fundamental problem is is that these people aren’t lying when they say that the time of the middle aged white guy is over, and that new cultures are here and going to displace the obsolete culture of the middle age white guy.
    Even thought middle aged white guys are responsible for most of western civilization and the modern world.
    If you want a real picture of the future, don’t look to Europe, look at South Africa.
    If you think I am a babbling racist, read How the Scots Invented the Modern World

    You don’t have to look to South Africa. You can look at Europe. Or you can look at Britain. Or you could even look at Scotland. A really good title for a Theodore Dalrymple-esque demonstration of the destructive consequences of socialism would be How the Modern World Unmade the Scots.

  21. the stupid party could point to chile and tell them that’s our model

  22. news to me and served a point

    Government doesn’t care about people. Government cares about salt-intake.

  23. How the Scots Invented the Modern World

    Got it. Read about 1/3 of it before my attention wandered.

    It’s a remarkable book. Most of the inventions (conceptual, not mechanical) arose from the pushme/pullyou relationship between Scotland and England.

    Bloomberg Strikes Again: NYC Bans Food Donations To The Homeless

    Glenn Beck was railing about this last summer, pointing out that the gubmint wants to put private charities out of service, because Leviathan brooks no rivals.

    In “retaliation,” Glenn and his donors filled 11 semi trucks with food and shipped them to towns hard-hit by recession and tornadoes.

  24. hispanics are just a subset of white people

    Bullshit. Look at the places the Spanish settled and compare them to the English colonies. Certain traits become apparent immediately if you aren’t an idiot.

    It isn’t at all cool to say these days, but we really are in a battle of cultures more than anything else.

  25. There was a similiar incident during the spring floods on the Red in North Dakata a few years back. Grateful locals were bringing baked goods and home cooked meals to all the guardsmen and volunteers working the levees. The local health department got involved because how do we know that food was prepared under sanitary conditions? or something.

    Because it was North Dakota, the health department busy-bodies got mocked in the local media and shamed into backing down.

  26. a new flag for our republic

    http://i.imgur.com/mOP3O.jpg

  27. well for sure I’m right about epcot

  28. It’s clear the left wishes to keep an open border in order to bring in future Democratic voters — specifically, those who make most use of government services and whose lack of social capital, from struggles with the language to poor education, from the start prevents them from moving into higher-paying jobs. That is, the left is importing future clients, whose votes can be had for a growing of the welfare state.

    This, by the way, is exactly what Tony Blair did to keep Labour in power. With all the attendant consequences Dr. Daniel’s built a second career documenting.

    Britain now is us ten years from now. If we’re lucky.

  29. hispanics are just a subset of white people

    Only after they shoot black kids.

  30. It was always wishful thinking on the part of the GOP that they’d get their hands on this enormous new voting bloc. Not sure where it came from, but it’s just another in a long line of estupideces on their part.

    They probably picked it up from the same place they pick up the rest of their stupid ideas.

    Sunday political show green rooms, D.C. cocktail circuit, those stupid parties the media and the politicians throw for each other.

  31. Keep digg’n Jeff. I assumed that 2016 would be more competitive, but you’re giving me hope.

  32. It’s better just to write off the Socialist Peoples Paradise of California. This is where the bulk of immigrants wind up (here and Texas). Republicans can’t win California. Given this, it makes no sense to compromise in any way on illegal immigration. We get nothing in return, except as I’ve been saying, maybe New Mexico.

    What we need is an appeal in the rust belt. I’m thinking it’s still possible that some of the union rank and file can be persuaded that their jobs depend on a public that can afford to buy the things they make. Otherwise, that daily commute from Flint to mainland China is going to get old real fast, I would think.

  33. It’s what I live for, slipperyslope.

  34. a slipperyslope is sort of like a wet back

  35. california is doing a fine job writing itself off thank you very much

  36. Gee, I’d really like to help those less fortunate than me. If only there was some way I could help get the government to confiscate other peoples’ money and spend it on things that make me feel better about myself.

    Yep, Democrats, soothing their conscience with your money since 1932.

  37. Actually, I always thought that slipperyslope would be a good name for a porno.

  38. a slippeyslope on brokeback mountain

  39. You’d think we could get better trolls here.

  40. I never believed a second civil war was possible. I have now changed my mind.

  41. how does one go about inciting a civil war without getting on some kind of list I wonder

  42. Just to be clear, I do not favor a civil war, and I am definitely not calling for one. Ijust no longer think it is avoidable when the money finally runs out. I think $20 trillion out to do it.

  43. Even the folks at Ricochet are giving the idea of secession a whirl.

    Something I hadn’t thought about:

    3.6 million of my fellow Californians voted for Romney. 3.2 million Texans voted for Obama. We are not neatly divided by geography, the Electoral College just gives us that illusion every 4 years.

  44. I was for reals asking, not accusing you

  45. santa baracky is making a list and checking twice

  46. newrouter says November 9, 2012 at 5:07 pm
    Campaign Sources: The Romney Campaign was a Consultant Con Job

    This is the kind of thing that makes me thing all of our talk and arguing and debating about ideology is basically ranting at the moon.

    Elections have nothing to do with politics.

  47. Elections have nothing to do with politics.

    planned or unplanned mittens gotv was destroyed

  48. We are not neatly divided by geography, the Electoral College just gives us that illusion every 4 years.

    Well obviously not everyone would approve the secession. But they’re free to move and not participate.

  49. Jeff wrote:

    The way forward with the Hispanic vote is to seal the borders, preach first principles, reaffirm the necessity of assimilation, show the way out of dependency, and reject things like “comprehensive immigration reform,” which won’t help you with Hispanics and will most certainly cost you what’s left of your base.

    I’m thinking we should stop caring about the ‘Hispanic vote’, the ‘Black vote’, the ‘single women’s vote’, the ‘homosexual vote’, etc. and concentrate on getting conservatives and Classical Liberals to designate a section of the country to move to, take over the governments of those states, and expel those who believe government is the solution from said states. Then we implement that kind of state resistance to the Feds that Jeff has written about. If the national government threatens to use to the police and/or the military powers against us, we then declare our Independence, as is our right as Free Americans under The Declaration Of Independence.

    This will, first of all, allow for the possibility of people rising-up in other states to join us in our stand against Leftism and, second of all, give us time to prepare for armed rebellion.

    I just don’t think The United States, as presently constituted, can survive.

  50. Let me add: The United States Of America is an idea, and ideas know no boundaries. Who says that it must forever be the fifty [or 57] states?

  51. planned or unplanned mittens gotv was destroyed

    Exactly. So ideology or philosophy didn’t have jack shit to do with the results.

    Obama had better logistics.

  52. concentrate on getting conservatives and Classical Liberals to designate a section of the country to move to, take over the governments of those states, and expel those who believe government is the solution from said states. Then we implement that kind of state resistance to the Feds that Jeff has written about. If the national government threatens to use to the police and/or the military powers against us, we then declare our Independence, as is our right as Free Americans under The Declaration Of Independence.

    Count me in.

  53. Count me in.

    Me too. Browncoats all around!

  54. I was on the losing side. That doesn’t mean it was the wrong side.

  55. Campaign Sources: The Romney Campaign was a Consultant Con Job

    Wow.

    So how come Romney didn’t put a stop to the shenanigans? He IS smart enough to tell the difference between competence and bluster, isn’t he?

    Or was he just so trusting he let them run the circus while he sat in his dressing room, nursing a headache?

  56. I think the real problem here is much deeper than even we realized until now. We have allowed the socialists to spend 3 generations taking over the educational system and the media. Conservative and classical liberal ideals are completely unknown to the vast majority of the country, even those who claim to BE conservatives. This is why you see “conservatives” continually advocating new ways to spend money they don’t have. We spent 3 generations getting here, it will take much longer than 4 years to get out.

  57. You know, since our system of government seems to be irretrievably broken, maybe we need to start our own Shadow Government. Kind of like Parliament and have the whole Saturday Question session. Not that His Nibs would show up, but I’d love to hear a rowdy group of lawmakers booing and cheering.

    At least it would be entertaining and I wouldn’t feel so helpless.

  58. Or was he just so trusting he let them run the circus while he sat in his dressing room, nursing a headache?

    no the software could only be truly tested on an election day. it should have been tested during the primaries but i’m getting the impression it was not.
    so instead of relying on the old and proven gotv mittens went with the shiny tech thing.

  59. It goes back a lot longer than that, Dan. This all started with TR and Wilson.

    I know you guys all love you some Ronaldus, but we haven’t had a real first principles conservative President since Coolidge.

  60. Coolidge was Reagan’s favorite president. So there’s that.

  61. We spent 3 generations getting here, it will take much longer than 4 years to get out.

    I really don’t think this will be the case. Sure, maybe the US limps along for a few more years, but when the crash comes, reality will assert itself rather quickly. No matter how folks organize themselves on the other side of the crash, I’m pretty sure that you’re going to have to earn your keep or you won’t be kept. There’s not going to be the kind of material abundance that allows folks to pretend 47% don’t have to contribute. Ain’t going to be too many adult babies trying to collect disability.

  62. Ain’t going to be too many adult babies trying to collect disability.

    If the gubmint is no longer around to confiscate our stuff to give to them, they’ll just step into the gap and take it directly.

    Don’t count on too many people waking up after a crash: they’ll just go gangsta and warlord and continue their degeneration at our expense.

  63. The Romney Campaign was a Consultant Con Job

    Probably recommended to Romney by the last batch of consultants con-artists.

  64. So what caused the breakdown and why didn’t it get fixed in time? Well according to sources who worked closely with the program, the blame is at the feet of consultants.

    Specifically Targeted Victory, FLS Connect, and The Stevens and Schriefer Group. While the Romney campaign did work with other consultants, they were apparently not part of the problem.

    Why do I think I’ve heard that name before?

  65. I know you guys all love you some Ronaldus, but we haven’t had a real first principles conservative President since Coolidge.

    Coolidge didn’t have to deal with a Democratic House and a squishy Senate.

  66. Why do I think I’ve heard that name before?

    bewitched?

  67. ORCA project was pretty darn successful

    Apparently Romney didn’t really want to be elected President.

    And I mean, who could blame him?

  68. Must be newrouter. Or maybe the Stevens put me in mind of Steve Schmidt.

    (Who, apparently was also high up in the Romney campaign, after his brilliant performance managing John McCain’s. Glad I didn’t know that before election day.)

  69. I’m starting to suspect that brilliant businessman, turn-around artist, saviour of the Salt Lake games and all-around nice guy Mitt Romney is just another suit adept at claiming credit for other peoples’ hard work.

  70. if you eff up something as basic as a gotv do you deserve to be potus?

  71. Also, among other things, Coolidge didn’t have to deal with FDR’s clever four freedoms and other positive right assertions. Not to mention the native American 70 yr olds of his day had been born in the pre-Civil War era and who themselves had grandfathers who had been born around 1800 or earlier.

  72. if mittens was a free market guy he would have had redundancy in the gotv app

  73. republicans making money destroying conservatives

  74. There’s use crying over spilled milk, granny always said.

    Romney’s yesterdays news. Let’s try our best to make sure Jeb Bush isn’t warming up in the batter’s circle.

  75. Pat Caddell was shouting about Rubio on the radio this afternoon.

    “If Romney had picked Rubio instead of Ryan . . .”

  76. I don’t doubt there were issues with Romney’s election day GOTV, outreach to Hispanics, etc., but how exactly are Republicans supposed to compete with this:

    “First, [Obama] received over 99% of the vote in districts where GOP inspectors were illegally removed. Next, he won 100% of the vote in 21 districts in Cleveland. Well, he’s gotten another lucky break!

    Mr. Obama won Wood County in Ohio this year. That’s right, Mr. Obama won the majority of Wood County’s 108% of registered voters. That’s not a typo.”

    http://tinyurl.com/cuhmg2a

  77. “Epcot is the gayest lamest place on erf btw”

    You can get German and Italian draft beer and walk around the park with it if you like so there’s that.

  78. Pat Caddell was shouting about Rubio on the radio this afternoon.

    eff demonrats advice marco be jeb bush stooge

  79. but how exactly are Republicans supposed to compete with this

    take over the voting system

  80. “…..Mr. Obama won the majority of Wood County’s 108% of registered voters.

    – Always remember Grasshopper….The trick is to win by just enough that your opponent doesn’t get suspicious.

  81. take over the voting system using un rules

  82. “If Romney had picked Rubio instead of Ryan . . .”

    They still would have lost.

  83. If UN rules include photo ID, and indelible ink, then I’m in favor of UN rules.

    Say the margin of fraud cost Romney OH and PA:

    he’d still be 20 votes shy in the electoral college.

  84. Weren’t FL and VA even tighter than OH and PA? I’m sure there was enough fraud there to have flipped those as well. And there’s your 270 votes.

    On vote fraud, I was thinking about what might be a semi-novel and undetectable way to do some shenanigans.

    Say you’ve got a reliably Democratic county, called Philadelphia for example. It’s going to split 85-15 for the Dem, and no one will be surprised when it does. But eyebrows will be raised if you push it to 95-5. So instead, what you do is manufacture votes for both candidates, in the expected ratio. I mean, if statewide voter turnout is 60%, and you show a 65% voter turnout in Philly, who’s going to notice? And who can say that the turnout wasn’t what you claim?

    In Philly, an extra 5% turnout (around 1M total registered voters) divied up in an 85-15 ratio gives Obama an extra 42,500 votes, and Romney 7,500, for a net Obama gain of 35K votes.

    Not bad, but that might not be enough to be sure. So you’d really like to pretend that Philly had a 90% turnout. 300,000 votes, 255,000 to 45,000, for a net gain of 210K votes for Obama.

    Problem with that is that if you claim Philly had 90% turnout, and the Philly suburbs only show a 60% turnout, that’s going to look mighty suspicious. Which would’ve mattered in the past when someone might be willing to do something about it. But still, let’s say you’re an old-school Dem and you still care about producing plausible fraud, if only for the style points. Because you’re a freakin’ artist.

    Enter that article Jeff linked, about the Colorado districts showing voter rolls of 110% or 140% of the eligible populations. Or even the entire populations; I didn’t read the article that closely. Either way, doesn’t matter. The point is that a perfectly reasonable 60% turnout is now 60% of a number that’s been inflated by 10-40%. Free votes, and unlikely to be noticed in the election post-mortem, as they’ll appear in-line with expectations.

  85. RE Republican outreach to hispanics

    I suppose Romney could have promised he wouldn’t allow an illegal gun running operation to be managed out of his Justice Dept, resulting in the deaths of 300 Mexicans.

    Or

    Seeing as how Obama, with the blood of 300 Mexicans on his hands, managed to pick up even more of the hispanic vote, maybe Romney should have promised to expand the program?

  86. VDH on this post’s subject.

  87. John,

    I’ve wondered if one of the features of the Obama campaign’s Narwhal system was the ability to identify exactly which voters will not show up to vote so that they could then have a bused in ringer vote that name. Voter ID would stop that cold and so had to be stopped “By Any Means Necessary.”

  88. From the VDH piece.

    The Rich

    I sense the same misinformation about the “wealthy” and the “job creators:” Just think the opposite and the truth emerges. Most in the top brackets voted for Obama; eight out of the ten wealthiest counties did at least. Many of the poeple I know in Silicon Valley, who this year passed on the signs and bumper stickers, nonetheless voted for Obama. The fact is that the Democratic Party, to generalize, is largely now the subsidized lower classes who pay no federal income tax and receive a growing array of federal largess coupled with, on the other end, a technocratic blue-state elite making over $200,000 annually. If taxes go up under Obama, at least theirs will, too. Another truth: the Republican Party is basically made up of a shrinking middle class and upper middle class, flanked on both ends by Democrats who, for various reasons, on one end, either do not appreciate their success or, on the other, hate them for their hoity-toity, un-PC tastes and culture. Yet how strange that the two ends of the Democratic coalition have so little to do with each other — a partnership based on cynical opportunism on both sides. All that is missing are the Roman tribunes, or perhaps the wealthy demagogi.

    Hmmm.

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  91. I say to heck with the GOP!

    If you are retired, join SCORE and open an office in the barrio or ghetto. Teach people how to start a business. Volunteer at Boys and Girls Club and throw in a little first principles talk with your soccer coaching. Invite Hispanic business owners to give a talk to the kids. Coach your kids’ teams and teach at the same time.

    The “answer” IMHO is to inspire people to be their own bosses. That way they have some skin in the game.

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  93. Lapsed Presbyterians do yard work and build things and control themselves and have one glass of wine with dinner, because its in the blood, and all the epigenetics. But I’ve never seen anyone work harder or bust their tucases more than the Central and South American day labor rounded up at a Home Depot on a Saturday morning.

    I really don’t think a come to America discursion on the merits of English Common law and the constitution would be lost on them if there was some kind of angle for doing that, like making them pass a citizen test.

  94. “Don’t count on too many people waking up after a crash: they’ll just go gangsta and warlord and continue their degeneration at our expense.”

    dicentra, that just means we’ll have to be better warlords than they are.

    “Why do cruel people think they have a monopoly on ruthlessness?”

  95. SDN, that reply I got from dicentra got me thinking about how some of these conversations might go. So, with apologies to Jeff, since I’m gonna steal from his playbook

    Overheard outside the Palace (a former Denny’s) of Supreme Warlord Humongous, in post-apocalyptic Ohio

    Adult Baby #1: Well, here’s the thing, Supreme Warlord Humongous, Master of All You Survey in the Cleveland Metro Area, and Champion of Halo 4 for All Time. As much as I would like to join your little raiding party into the suburbs, you may have noticed, I’m currently wearing a diaper. Also, I have recently made boom boom. Speaking of which, do you think you could counter sign this disability check? Or maybe I could get one of those EBT cards? They still take those at Krogers, right? I’m going to need a supply of formula and talcum powder for my nanny to put on my tender bottom, so as not to get a rash. You understand.

    Supreme Warlord Humongous:

    Adult Baby #1:

    Supreme Warlord Humongous: (to one of his lieutenants) I’ma need you to shoot the dude who just shit himself.

    Lieutenant: (raises pistol) BLAM!!

    Supreme Warlord Humongous: (to Adult Baby #2) You have a request?

    Adult Baby #2: (having just shit himself, after seeing his crib mate shot) Nope. Fully with the program, Supreme Warlord Humongous.

    Supreme Warlord Humongous: (to himself) How the fuck am I supposed to get this Army of the Night shit off the ground when all I got are grown men shitting on themselves? We ain’t never gonna be able to invade Toledo with these assholes……

  96. SarahW

    Day laborers do indeed do hard work. But, like what was the norm of blue-collar laborers of pallor, there’s a streak of collectivism – either following the union bosses promising extras (America) or generational political patronage (Mexico) that determines who gets a few more pesos or a better job.

    Hard work that fosters a subservient mindset least one get on the wrong side of the patron

    This is why the PRI panicked back in 2000. This is why the Democrats did every dirty trick in the book to put Obama into a 2nd term.

  97. But I’ve never seen anyone work harder or bust their tucases more than the Central and South American day labor rounded up at a Home Depot on a Saturday morning.

    Sure. For cash payments. So it doesn’t jeopardize their ability to use every welfare program they can apply to.

    Then much of the money is sent back to their home countries.

    Goddamn but am I tired of this ridiculous romanticizing of Latinos. I lived in a Latino neighborhood from the time I came back from Italy until the time my first son was 2. It was dangerous, crime-ridden, and filled with section 8 housing.

    As with every other ethnic group, there are those who work hard and those who try to play the system. And there are those who do both simultaneously.

  98. Then much of the money is sent back to their home countries

    Mexico’s remittances for September stood at $1.66 billion, according to the Bank of Mexico, *

    Why isn’t the US taxing the transfer of that wealth? Much of it earned under the table?

  99. Is it romantic to notice the hard work? It’s not like the cash-leak shouldn’t be noticed, too. If they had to soak up some rights of man to get at my cork click-floor is all I am saying, I don’t think self-direction and self-government is beyond the minds of anyone with a hard-scrabble ethic.

  100. I don’t think self-direction and self-government is beyond the minds of anyone with a hard-scrabble ethic.

    Sure. But why bother when you don’t have to?

  101. Is it romantic to notice the hard work? It’s not like the cash-leak shouldn’t be noticed, too. If they had to soak up some rights of man to get at my cork click-floor is all I am saying, I don’t think self-direction and self-government is beyond the minds of anyone with a hard-scrabble ethic.

    It is when that hard work is singled out as being particular to a given ethnic group. Read Heather McDonald’s piece: Latinos are statistically quite likely to be consumers of the welfare state and government services.

    Which means there are plenty of Latinos who aren’t hard working.

    There. I said it.

  102. You guys are really wearing me out with all this egghead shit.

    They don’t vote for Republicans because Republicans aren’t cool.

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