Jennifer Rubin, Commentary:
As many of us predicted, Obama, a peace-process worshiper of the first order, and his envoy, who is convinced that if he solved the Northern Ireland crisis he can bring peace to the Middle East, are now facing the collapse of their 18-month venture into Middle East policymaking. (By the way, given Mitchell’s performance in the Middle East, do you get the feeling that the settlement of the Northern Ireland conflict was coincidental to, not a result of, his presence?) [Leslie] Gelb, as many of us on the right have argued, explains why peace talks can be quite dangerous if you really don’t know what you’re doing:
The real danger between these two star-crossed inhabitants of the same Holy Land is not failure to negotiate; it’s the failure of the negotiations. Flashpoints in the Holy Land tend to burst after they sit down at the negotiating table, give their speeches, fail to agree, and watch the process collapse. That is when the explosions begin. That is when Palestinian terrorism reignites in Israel. People tend to resort to violence when their hopes and expectations are dashed formally and frontally, not when they are merely hoping.
Actually, in this case, “people” don’t — the Palestinians do. (There’s no Jewish intifada.) And the Palestinians also resorted to violence in anticipation of the talks. Really, any excuse will do.
The collapse of the talks would not merely raise the specter of another intifada; it would threaten to decimate what is left of the president’s prestige and credibility. Hence, Gelb sees reason for Bibi to spare Obama that humiliation:
The Israeli hawk understands full well, though he doesn’t like it, that he must burnish and safekeep ties with America. For the time being, that requires good ties with Mr. Obama, whom Netanyahu and his fellow hawks don’t like very much. To them, Mr. Obama sounded too pro-Arab in his first years in office, and they don’t have much trust in him. So, they have to get along with him well enough for at least another year – or until the American presidential election season erupts. At that point, these particular Israelis will pray for rain and a Republican president.
But, of course, both sides must stay in the room, and so far it seems that Abbas is itching to get out.
This brings us back to Gelb’s concern: maybe the Obami had not a clue what they were doing and now have a mess they are not equipped to clean up. And gosh, maybe the same is true of Iran. Perhaps they were silly to assume that engagement and Swiss-cheese sanctions were going to work to disarm the mullahs and now have no idea what to do. To be blunt, the president’s supporters and even some critics have both assumed that there is at work here a level of foreign policy competence and clearheadedness that may not, in fact, exist. Gelb hints that what we are dealing with are rank and arrogant amateurs. Yes, it’s scary.
Elections have consequences. And, when handled right, they are also potentially both clarifying and illuminating.
Learn these lessons well. Or don’t. But just so’s you know, you can be damn sure I don’t have the requisite class to keep from telling you I told you so over and over and over again.
(h/t sdferr)
“Actually, in this case, “people” don’t — the Palestinians do.”
C’mon, get with the whole “equivalence” schtick-it’s all the rage!
“And the Palestinians also resorted to violence in anticipation of the talks. Really, any excuse will do.”
Kind of like the looters who celebrate NBA championships by treating temselves to others goods.
“And gosh, maybe the same is true of Iran. Perhaps they were silly to assume that engagement and Swiss-cheese sanctions were going to work to disarm the mullahs and now have no idea what to do.”
Well, if they like, I can offer a couple of good suggestions.
Rank and arrogant amateurs to be sure, and yes, it is scary.
At some point, maybe there ought to be a “Jewish intifada”. The Israeli Jews get blamed for merely defending themselves, and get blamed for the latest Fatah and/or Hamas self-inflicted madness, anyway…
What was that line? Oh yeah:
This just keeps getting better and better!
Dang. You know the optics of the Obama campaign were so good.
I hear 2012 could be a very bad year. End of the world bad even. Seems all the pieces are in place anyway…
I was so sure that Obama was a good man.
http://www.google.com/images?&q=white+phosphorus+gaza&spell=1&biw=1280&bih=608
Oh, look! An idiot troll shows up to prove my point.
I’d use Willy Pete to root out the Palestinian combatants too AJB. It seems to me the bigger question is why guys like you condone their use of human shields.
Israeli intifada indeed…You are a jackass.
What’s most perverse about this flailing renewed pass at negotiations — with the Palestinian’s leadership again incapable, if not entirely unwilling, to bring to a successful mutually agreeable and peaceful conclusion — is that Pres. Clinton was equally forewarned, well before the Camp David talks, that Arafat couldn’t deliver his population to agreement to any result, and that Palestinian violence would necessarily be the consequence. So again.
Then we wonder, is Obama simply incapable of learning that lesson? Or if he has taken that lesson onboard, is fresh Palestinian violence his aim?
Go ask John Cole about white phosphorus, douche.
AJB, winning hearts and minds none at a time.
Could be sdferr,
What better stage would be set for him than to be able to rebuke Israel publicly after, once again, defending themselves from an assault-no matter the asymetry of the attacks.
Maybe he thinks it’s just the ticket to put him over the top with the Arabs that he wants so desperately to ingratiate himself with. But he’ll never realize that more than anything they respect strength, both of arms and will…
And I wonder what the AJB-like progressive hand wringerz will be saying when Iran nukes Israel? And they whine about the “heat” of WP?
Yeah, I know, many of them will be loniv’ it secretly, but not have the balls to admit it…
But sdferr! This isn’t like the 90s. This time, it’s different. This time we’ve got him.
That’s odd:
Or maybe Obama really is the anti-Christ, masquerading as a peacemaker, and looking for a way to get the final battle rolling in the middle-east; as Lee said upthread, maybe 2012 will be, er, intersting.
On balance, the shooting seems like a very measured response to rockets being fired indiscriminantly into Israel from Gaza.
Well, what’s odd is AJB bitching about phosphorus a couple of days after Hamasmen fire phosphorus shells into Israel, don’t you think Bob? Or was that just AJB’s silent or backhanded way of criticizing Hamasmen?
Aw, c’mon. All it needs is a snappy logo…
sdferr,
I just think the WP saw is one of AJB’s go-to talking points vis-a-vis Israelis disproportionate response to Palestinian attacks. Mention Palestinian aggresion? AJB goes for the WP card.
The story of the Gazans lobbing WP rockets into Israel that you linked is made even more deliciously ironic coming on the heels of AJB asinine comment.
My comment about the IDF’s response being measured was meant to be a double-entendre; a tongue in cheek jab at AJB’s knee-jerk “disproprotionate response” card play.
Me personally? The only “disproportionate response” is when you miss your target altogether :)
Already been done.
Granted all Bob. Maybe AJB wasn’t up-to-date on the latest rocket&mortar lobbings; maybe AJB heard phosphorus in a recent news report and assumed it meant Israel into Gaza without bothering to listen which direction the WP was traveling. Whichever, it is kinda funny.
You are generous in extending AJB the benefit-of-the-doubt sdferr,
I’m seeing more of a knee-jerk reaction, or pre-emption really, to the inevitable violence that will accompany the most recent set of White House sponsored talks.
And you know what many comics say about comedy; it’s mostly in the timing…
So, AJB, if you try to hurt me and then I proceed to beat the ever living shit out of you, I’m to blame? But come on, AJB. Try to hurt me.
Hypothetical or “thought experiment” for AJB and others of similar views:
Suppose the Israelis went in with the whole pile of modern stuff they have available, and utterly wiped out the Gazans, bashing the head of the last infant on world wide TV.
What could you say to condemn that that you haven’t already screamed at the top of your lungs?
Your entire strategy depends on you, yourself, being a liar — you know damn well, as Gandhi did, that the success of your tactic depends utterly on the Israelis not being what you claim they are. Unlike Gandhi, you are too stupid to give them credit for that and therefore get (at least some of) them on your side.
Regards,
Ric
Excellent thought experiment Ric.
i think dealing with ajb is sort of redefining pointless.
cynn, moneymen stick around and make an argument.
thor too. well, mostly he doesnt.
You don’t have to tell us ‘I told you so’ Jeff. The cold of record of history does that every day. It is the academics and the striped pants set, the intellectual superiors and those who have a vested interest in it, that keep these talks on going. And that is fine so long as everyone realizes that this is a charade and that there isn’t actually going to be any peace until one side or the other is crushed. And that does not look likely because the Palestinians do not have the strength and the Israelis do not have the will.
Obama’s chief strategists are Valerie Jarett, slum lord, and David Axlerod, ad man. Rahm never negotiated anything diplomatically in his life. These people are very dangerous amateurs, only they don;t know it.
The next argument when confronted with the fact that rockets are fired into Israel is usually that the Pali’s have poor aim, don’t do any damage, and therefore any reaction by Israel is an overreaction. Which brings to mind the old joke about rewarding attempted murderers for their incompetence.
In any case, the whole situation regarding the Pali’s and the hope for peace negotiations requires one to not understand that if you live in the territories and don’t express a desire to see Jewish blood running in the street with the acceptable amount of fervor, then you are at a very real risk of having thugs show up at your door to murder you and your whole family. Not sure how you negotiate with that.
Makewi,
I think that’s part of what sdferr was referring to in #10 when he said that the Palestinian leaders can agree to anything they want, but at this point, after years of indoctrination, they may not be able to guarantee that the populace goes along with the deal they make.
Bob — in point of fact, that’s the basis of the current situation.
Hamas got power specifically based on a campaign strategy of “those PLO nuts are too soft on the Jews.”
Regards,
Ric
Who knew that Obama could wipe out the Democrat Party, and the Socialists in the Middle East, and the reliable Jewish liberal vote in America.
Oprah was right, he really is magnificent.
“There’s no Jewish intifada”
Oh surely you remember the Sinai settler violence – Arab bodies stacked like cordwood – and the massive terrorism of the settlers leaving Gaza?! Destroyed the place like Carthage vs. Rome… What? Oh, never mind…
It had nothing to do with him and everything to with people in Northern Ireland actually having jobs and with that the possibility of a future. Not to mention jealosy over the “Irish Tiger”. And also that if the “political arms” of the terrorist organizations on both sides wanted to keep any measure of political influence they needed money from the US, which they were never going to get if they were still blowing people up after 9-11.
Caroline Glick digs down into the details with “The perils of diplomatic theater”:
rtwt
It is perilous, sdferr, if you see it as being true.
Unfortunately too many actually believe that by clapping they can save Tinkerbelle.
It’s certainly perilous for the Israelis getting shot by Hamas as they attempt to sabotage the talks, that’s for damn sure.
Gelb hints that what we are dealing with are rank and arrogant amateurs.
Indeed, the
latte’ CommiesObama Adm. even seems to have confused its alleged “outranking” of everyone else with “ranking them out” – the Proggs’ existentialdeath odorstench easily explained!