From Gary at Nielson:
Nielsen just finished a review of how “engaged” voters were by the national political conventions ( e.g., how much attention they were paying). We found that voters not yet committed to either candidate were 12% more engaged by TV coverage of the GOP convention than the Democratic convention.
John McCain’s acceptance speech on September 4 drew the most attentive audience of uncommitted viewers. Telecasts of Barack Obama’s and Sarah Palin’s acceptance speeches on August 28 and September 3, respectively, tied in second place as the second most engaging telecasts among uncommitted viewers.
More analysis here.
If there’s anything to be drawn from this it is perhaps that uncommitted voters were more willing to be convinced (or unconvinced) by McCain — which showed in the polls as a bounce immediately after the GOP Convention.
Beyond that, the gains are likely marginal and ephemeral — unless they are reinforced by solid performances in the debates.
Though I have nothing more than a gut feeling to go on, I suspect that — as the polls have once again leveled out (unless you account for the “Bradley Effect”, which argues that McCain is really ahead by 39% points, what with the way whites say they’ll vote for a black man, but when the time comes to pull the lever, that voting booth curtain becomes a starched white sheet) — a strong performance by McCain in his debate(s) with Obama will secure much of that 12% who were already leaning his way but who remain, at least technically, uncommitted.
What will be interesting to see is if (and how much) Palin’s performance in the VP debates affects the overall comportment of undecideds.
Biden, knowing as much, may be forced to take drastic measures.
WOW. Biden’s got nicer legs than I expected.
The last year and a half of campaigning have been an utter waste of time and money. Come Friday, it’s game on. Maverick should mop the floor with The One. I really can’t wait for the Palin-Biden debate.
Sure, but his boobs are obviously fake.
hmmmm, this is the second time I’ve heard the Biden sex change rumor. (it’s at the end of the clip)
I don’t want to remember a ‘Biden sex-change rumor’ and I will thank you to never mention it again.
I’d really expected a post-op Biden to look more like Dr. Ruth. But without the sparkle — like Dr. Ruth crossed with a basset hound.
You figure Biden will keep his unit? He seems to me someone that wouldn’t want to go all the way if you catch my drift.
I’ll second Mikey NTH and add that Mr. Pink should be barred from further mention of Biden’s unit.
If there’s anything to be drawn from this it is perhaps that uncommitted voters were more willing to be convinced (or unconvinced) by McCain
Or that anybody likely to be swayed by the constant press swooning over Teleprompter Jesus had already joined the crusade.
It seems to me that a Republican victory is pretty far-fetched. When people realize just how south the economy has gone they are bound to blame the party that has been in the White Hose these past two terms. If the Dems were coming off two terms where they managed to all but destroy the economy and lose two wars simultaneously I doubt I would have the party loyalty necessary to give them another chance. That’s just the cold, hard truth about politics.
I doubt if the debates will have much bearing on the race. Her handlers will fill Palin with factoids and Tourettes Syndrome-like verbal ticks about Israel’s right to exist or something about Islamic extremism. They can force-feed her homilies and bad jokes until she starts looking like a French goose but the fact is that Biden is much more skilled at debate. He also has a great sense of humor. Her handlers will just try to minimize the damage she does to the ticket by making her seem more “down to earth†(yeah, I hate that expression too). I’m anxious to see the Obama-McCain debates.
that “asking a guy in a wheelchair to stand up” thing did make me LOL.
What world are you from?
Nick H, are you a Concerned Christian Conservative? Do you make $140,000 a year?
What world are you from?
The Magical Land of Axelrod would be my guess.
Props for adding an initial, though, “Nick”. That makes it way more credible than the typical “Jim” or “Bill”.
It was the “lose two wars” bit that gave the game away.
If the Dems were coming off two terms where they managed to all but destroy the economy and lose two wars simultaneously I doubt I would have the party loyalty necessary to give them another chance.
Let him pass. Those are not the droids we’re looking for.
Major John, you can come home now. You too, RTO. Nick says you lost. Now all you have to do is convince the Iraqis to reattach Sadam’s head, or at least stuff Uday and Qusay and prop ’em up in a chair somewhere, connected to a loudspeaker system.
Or, I know! — PUPPETS!
“If the Dems were coming off two terms where they managed to all but destroy the economy and lose two wars simultaneously”
Well, if being wrong is what you were going for, Nick. Then, Mission Accomplished. The economy is indeed in sad shape, but that was bipartisan. The two lost wars? Of which wars do you speak?
Nick H, I’m guessing you’re a lifelong Republican who voted for Bush (both times!) but have come to realize that we cannot continue those policies. Since you know McCain will be a third Bush term, you realize you have to bite the bullet and vote for Obama.
Ha! Nice cranky-d. I was thinking the exact same thing.
oh, he’s home, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be going anywhere in the future. and I won’t get that “third deployment bonus grand piano”.
Maggie — Woot, woot!
If the Dems were coming off two terms where they managed to all but destroy the economy and lose two wars simultaneously…
Who won those two wars, Nick? And by what metric?
Whew! It’s good to know that the Dem Congress doesn’t have anything to do with the economy. What with their already dismal single point approval ratings people might take out their economic irritation on Baracky.
What’s that you say? Congress is considering a $700 billion bailout package? Huh. Well, at least the war is lost.
How the fuck can we lose a war when the enemy can not even mount an offensive?
How the fuck can we lose a war when the enemy can not even mount an offensive?
We can’t stop people like Nick from retroactively surrendering.
And yes, Nick, I am questioning your fucking patriotism, just to be clear.
Well, at least the war is lost.
I like Dennis Miller’s response to that. Last line is definitely a keeper:
I think maybe this reflects that the Democrat people overly themed their convention evenings to where they had too much of the same flavor. That’s my hunch anyway.
Also by the way this data is pretty worthless since it’s only presented relative to each convention. Was engagement for *both* conventions greater than or equal to or less than a baseline of average primetime engagement is what I would like to know.
ha, yeah, we watched quite a bit of both conventions and the last night of the Republican convention RTO said to me, “They’re doing it all wrong, where are all the people that lost their jobs?” The Dems were very much about how craptastic everything was and how O! was our only hope. nothing about how he was going to accomplish that, but hey, he’s new and improved!