It starts in his home state of Illinois, as Alec MacGillis reports for the Washington Post:
Obama’s advisers have pointed to his success in winning over “downstate” Illinoisans as a sign of his electability, but political analysts question the claim. Obama lost most of downstate Illinois in his Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate in 2004, and his big win in the general election that year came against Alan Keyes, a black conservative with a Maryland address. In this year’s presidential primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beat Obama in southern Illinois’ struggling coal counties, highlighting the same weakness he showed in the coal regions of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky.
“He certainly has shown a good amount of reach into downstate and southern Illinois, but . . . it has been overstated,” said Michael Lawrence, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.
To the extent that Obama has penetrated downstate, said Chris Mooney, a political scientist at the University of Illinois at Springfield, it has been partly a result of his constituent service, a tool he lacks in the presidential campaign. “He was thinking Illinois from Day One” in Washington, Mooney said. “He has the classic attention to detail of a Chicago politician, the idea that ‘we gotta get ours.'”
That sounds more like Old Politics than Change We Can Believe In.ÂÂ
Moreover, there seems to be a number of high-profile Democrats who are not Believers. Former Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner — now running for the US Senate — has removed himself from consideration as Veep for Obama. Similarly, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland was Shermanesque this past week in saying that he would “absolutely not” be Obama’s running mate. Debra Bartoshevich — a Clinton delegate to the Democratic convention from Wisconsin — has announced she will vote for McCain in the general election. There are also a number of House Democrats, like Reps. Heath Shuler and Travis Childers, who have not exactly rushed to Obama’s side since he locked up enough delegates for the nomination.
Most of the aforementioned Democrats are from states that are obvious general election battlegrounds like Ohio and Virginia, while others are from states like North Carolina, where the Obama campaign claims it will recolor the electoral map. It seems like Obama still has work to do in these states, particularly with rural voters.
Update: Welcome, Freepers!
Nagging electability problem? It’s about Michelle, right?
And remember – these people – Warner, Strickland – are not random internet commenters with an opinion and no responsibility. These are serious party members and if they are feeling queasy then something is seriously wrong with the Democrats this round.
Not only that, Mikey NTH, but youngin’s like nishi and her ilk are traditionally and persistently lousy about actually heading out to the polling booths and doing the deed.
I think it has something to do with having to stand in line with their fellow citizens that creeps them out.
Because so many of their fellow citizens don’t look like “the Ones We’ve Been Waiting For”.
Meanwhile, black conservatives such as Armstrong Williams (pfft) and J.C. Watts claiming that they can’t rule out voting for him:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gG8tAX6JNuX2nM4d9rlpqEU5oUTgD919VG88A
Thank you for that link, Pat R. It is refreshing to hear people discussing voting decisions made on the basis of race, brings back old times, it does.
– I’m sure the Dem party leadership are working their asses off and burning up the cell phone batteries trying to woe the Hillery people back onto the reservation, in spite of the “happy faces” they’re putting on for the public, but its anyones guess just how successful they’ll be.
– We’ll all know come convention time, whether it worked or not, just by watching the floor fights, the crowds manner, and how many delegates do a crossover to McCain. And when you think about it, Dem delegate crossovers to a Rep is mondo weird. But then this election has been all about “teh weird” from the gitgo, from McCains return from the political dead, to Obama’s outrageous associations. Can you imagine the first Black dude running for Pres being a 20 year member of a Black separatist church thinking he has a chance in hell. I can’t, yet here he is.
– As I said in another thread, any sizable split in the Dem voting block, and Obama doesn’t even lose as close as Lurch did, he loses big time.
Normally, Obama would be a joke.
But with McCain kicking his base in the balls every other day, it’s a little bit hard to start laughing.
Here’s a link via Brothers Judd – A Tennessee US Representative is reluctant to endorse Sen. Obama. To the say the least it is not a good thing to have this going on. And note, In Re: The Noonan post – this is not in the big media, it is from the local media. I think it supports my contention that the major media are too self-isolated.
http://www.nashvillecitypaper.com/news.php?viewStory=60813
That is the thing BBH – these are members of the Democratic Party leadership, and if they are having a hard time coming around then the cracks are about the size of the Grand Canyon.
– The recent Newsweek Michele piece is a first crack in the post primary armor for Obama. As partisan as they are, I don’t think the legacy media is going to keep backing a candidate if they come to the conclusion that the HillBots are right for the reasons that Karl spoke to, and the contention I have that any sort of split among the Dems that carries through to the election kills their chances.
– Thats why I’m not buying the idea that Hillery is yet toast. Theres a long way from now to the debates, and Obama has shown anything but stability in his campaign. I think the media will turn on him in a heart beat if the “October” surprises don’t stop soon, or if too many delgates refuse to cooperate, and all this even before the first day of the convention. Add to that you have major Hillery supporters going on the tube and declaring outright they are not going to vote for Obama, web sites devoted to “Clinton for McCain”, and a brighter picture in Iraq. Not a lot of good news for the Obamasmurfs these days.
For those interested, I suggest an article from The Weekly Standard (“It’s Not Race, It’s Arugalu”) that contrasts Obama’s appeal to “Academicians” with his lack of appeal to “Jacksonians.”
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/215hpooz.asp
I think it’s interesting to see Democrats from Jacksonian areas (Strickland, Warner, and those in Tennessee) seem to be slinking away from Obama. I’m starting to wonder whether they see Obama as a novel, one-hit wonder and they don’t want to face their voters in the aftermath. I also think some Democrats are looking around at some of the crackpots backing Obama and are wondering “HTF are these people?”
As things improve in Iraq, Jacksonian Democrats don’t want to hear Democrats whining about losing a war. They want to win. Today, I read that Bush and the British have Pakistani permission to begin pursuing Osama in Pakistan. Can you imagine the effect of his head on a stick?
If McCain would simply come up with a comprehensive energy program, I think he could amputate Obama’s already skinny legs. He’d be left complaining about the war, arguing for more Supreme Court decisions like the recent Gitmo decisions, and other nonsense. If things don’t begin improving for him by the end of the next month or so, I’m with Big Bang Hunter–Democrats will make a move to bring Hillary off the bench. If Obama is then swooning (unlike his supporters), Hillary backers will have an easy argument to blacks that Obama is a recipe for a November disaster. Here’s hoping Hillary backers fail–but weaken Obama more in the process.
BBH – it is getting late in the year, we are halfway through June and this is still going on. They have four and a half months to get their very loose organization heading the same way before the general election, which means they beeter get this straightened out in the next month. This plays to what I have written about each seperate office having seperate power bases and only loosely connected through party apparatus. These Democratic officeholders are looking out for themselves more than usual and are trying to keep a distance from their presidential nominee. That usually happens when the current president is seen as a liability; I have not seen it happen where a non-incumbant presidential nominee is seen as a liability.
This, I think, explains why the Democrats are trying to tie George W. Bush to John McCain – McCain does not have that perceived liability with the general populace, and certainly not with the majority of self-identified Republicans. They are trying to neutralize this liability issue Sen. Obama has by making the race between him and George Bush. I do not think that is going to work as it involves asking the voters to make a more complex connection than otherwise – I think it will only work with those who are already in the Obama camp, not as much with those outside of it.
Let me say it again – when you, as a political party, lose a reliable seventy+ year old voter like my dad then you are in deep trouble – like Marianas Trench-deep trouble.
“….[They] are trying to neutralize this liability issue Sen. Obama has by making the race between him and George Bush.
– You have a mavarick RINO that is going to get a sizable “hold your nose” anti-Obama vote from the Republican/Independent/pissed of Dem voters, and you’re trying to paint him as Bush-III. Good luck with that Obama. Let me know how that works out for you.
SAM,
You might be interested in my prior guest-posts on the Jacksonians.
I think the ‘hold your nose’ vote only applies to a subset of Republican-leaning conservatives or Democratic-leaning progresives Those with weaker ideological/party ties, or independents won’t vote that way.
Commenters on politcal blogs are so not representative of the electorate that actually decides elections through their numbers. Neither Hot Air, nor Michelle Malkin, nor Daily Kos, nor Democratic Underground commenters are normal voters. They are enthusiastic hobbyists; to use an analogy, compared to the average voter they are the guys and gals that have a Star Trek uniform and go to conventions as opposed to those who watch the show from time to time.
Good article SAM, the author had me right up until she called Hillary a Jacksonian. She may not be quite as wonky as Obamessiah, but Jacksonian Hillary is not.
Ohmama’s biggest problem with the genneral election is that McCain is Liberal too even though he calls himself a Republican… A LOT of shit will surface before the general election that will kill him… McCain has been in the polical eye long enough that there are not nearly as MANY skeletons in his closet… What does frustrate me is that Huckabee said that all the Republicans should not call Ohmama liberal because that would be slander when there are Democrats (i.e. Gov. Strickland, OH) that say he is too liberal?????
Quit pretending Obama will napalm your cocoons, ya dithering weirdos.
Sorry thor; we don’t worship any politicians here.
Thor,
ObamaLamaDingDong is going to nuke you, too. When a presidential candidate promises to wreck the economy in the name of “fairness”, even his supporters will get screwed to the wall. It’s unavoidable, no matter how superior voting for O! makes you feel.
I get the feeling that you weren’t even alive when Jimmuh Cahtah was president. Obama is promising us a second Cahtah administration.
Reality might suck, but reality IS reality.
And, might I add, Carter just about destroyed our economy with his Obama-esque bullshit.
Huckabee is a very confused man. Just recently he thought he could be president, for example.
– thor – Obama is toast. Deal with it, and you’ll thank us later.
I think Obama’s puppeteers will finally decide the only choice for VP is the Huckster…the mind meld between them will be glorious!
The Jacksonian gap, the experience gap, the accomplishment gap, and … Let us not forget the clear and obvious “patriotic service gap” – Obama couldnt even mention military service to College grads when talking about ways to serve. OTOH, you have this:
McCain’s son are serving the military overseas right now. His son is serving in Iraq, and McCain visited him last Thanksgiving, but McCain has not sought any publicity over it but kept quiet about it. it wasnt even public until press uncovered it in April. See: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mccains-19yearold-son-does-a-prince-harry-in-iraq-805406.html
McCain’s service of 5 year in the Hanoi Hilton is harrowing and well-known.
On Iraq, it will take a POW who knows the horror of war and who has served and whose father and whose sons are serving to do the right thing for our national security there. McCain has been right on Iraq all along.
Democrats cannot let history record a success in Iraq and are hellbent on failure there and tagging Bush with it. They will bug out prematurely or they will break their promises of premature withdrawal and muddle poorly through. McCain’s consistent stand is far superior.
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I’m expecting somebody like Andrew Cuomo, NY AG, for VP
WI Dems took away Debra B’s delegate credentials and will send someone else. The NERVE!!!!
– Well Bill. they can’t have anyone running around that expresses their true nature.
And let’s remember that there are no caucus states in the general election.
The Obama campaign obviously knew how to get on the ground and organize in a way to win those states in the primary. He wouldn’t have the nomination except for those states; Hillary would be the nominee. Just how well will he do in those states in the general election?
What’s Eliot Spitzer doing these days?
Its a Color Change we can believe in!
I’m trying to think of all the unique traits The Obamba has in his arsenal.
Uhh….
Character? scratch
Intellect? scratch
Experience? scratch
Insight? scratch
There must be something that makes this fellow unique. What is it?
I just remembered!! He’s a Color Change we can believe in!!
Fuck yeah!!
here, ccoffer, you can go make your own poster! and then maybe put it on a t-shirt. kids (according to a resident troll) luv that stuff.