At Salon, Democratic pollster Paul Maslin looks at whether the youth vote can deliver the presidency to Barack Obama. Most of Maslin’s point echo my assessment of the youth vote from May 26, but it is always good to get independent confirmation. Maslin agrees that even a large increase in the youth vote would produce only a small impact on the actual makeup of the electorate:
Despite the gains of 2004, however, the net import of all these figures is this: 18- to-29-year-olds supplied a minuscule portion — only about .03 of a percent — of Gore’s ultimate popular-vote margin in 2000 (and obviously may or may not have supplied the difference in Florida) and couldn’t put Kerry over the top, even though their increased turnout and swing toward the Democrats added 1.53 percent to Kerry’s popular vote total in 2004.
So one obvious and pretty vital question about 2008 is whether, anecdotal evidence of stadium-size rallies to the contrary, most of the “surge” in youth voting has already taken place. This theory would also contend that the higher primary turnouts evident in certain key states are a result of interest and intensity building over the course of the past eight years, and particularly since the beginning of the Iraq war, and not solely the result of anything unique about the Obama candidacy.
Moreover, Maslin — who worked for the youth-friendly Howard Dean campaign — worries that the more messianic and youth-oriented the Obama campaign appears, the greater the risk of a backlash from older voters. He also notes (as I did) that a lot of the increase in the you vote comes from minority groups already accounted for in Obama’s margins to date. (On this point, I note in passing that the latest from RCP’s Jay Cost shows that Hillary Clinton carried young whites in GOP-leaning swing states.)
Nevertheless, Maslin hypothesizes that if Obama can build a substantial margin over McCain with the youth vote (and there is little backlash from older voters) he could gain 2% of the vote, which could be decisive in states with more youthful populations, including such swing states as Nevada, Virginia and Colorado. True enough, but that scenario relies on quite a few “ifs,” not all of which are with Obama’s control, even given his impressive social networking efforts.ÂÂ
nope
Obama is a Chicago Pol, so I’d be looking more into the size of the dead vote.
What about the fictional character vote?
What about the cold hand vote in Chicago and maybe St. Louis?
what about anybody who ever lived in Chicago to be banned from politics for life?
I cannot vote for the youth-voter’s candidate since I was once youthful and recall just how emotionally irrational I was during my youthful days; having experienced the repercussions of my youthful ways is the other reason why I cannot vote for the youth-voter’s candidate.
What’s the saying, ‘been there, done that, don’t want to go through that again’
sashal,
I’ve heard worse proposals. ;-)
Doesn’t the preciously important Electric Youth vote seem to have trouble every election making that Sisyphean effort to get out of the dorms and into the voting booths? Must be all those Karl Rove contracted armed thugs fresh from Zimbabwe intimidating them from going to the polls.
My first vote cast at age 18 – Dukakis. He just looked so damn sexy in that tank.
Is it too late for the Rethuglian party to substitute Huma Abedin in place of McCain? Sure, it might take some arm twistin and a BIG bribe.. but she’d beat the pants off Barack (figuratively speaking as she likely bats for the other team..if ya get my drift..::nudge::nudge::) Womyn.. Muslim… Marxist.. Lesbian.. a winning combo.
My first presidential vote was in 1976 for … um … gack … hunnnngh …
(jimmy carter)
(bleah)
I DENOUNCE BJ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Were you high? Tripping? Practical joke? Good Lord, boy.
Ouroboros
Didn’t it just come out that Huma is dating a man?
Um … all of the above?
The Youth Vote?…
Yeah, that’s what put McGovern over the top.
My first presidential vote was for Bush against Clinton. I didn’t vote in the first Bush election, like most youngsters at the time – the guy I was dating at the time had a “Burn the Bush, save the Trees” T-shirt. @@. Kinda funny – you acted all political, but NO ONE voted.
By 1992, I was safely through my liberal period and a regular National Review reader. And, I voted.
My first vote was for Bush the elder. I was a registered Democrat in a deep blue state, but Dukakis? I mean c’mon.
My next two were for Billy Jeff. Eventually I got better.
Education Guy – I denounce you as well, but that is not nearly as bad as BJ voting for Carter. Good Lord.
Does this mean I’m Tainted© by the Original Stain™ of my vote?
O! Absolve me of my stain!!!
Nope, it just makes you a dirty taint. Oops, I am racist for saying that.
BJ , I had no idea you had a blue period in your life.
It was not blue, sashal. It was shit stained taint brown.
The power of Dukakis’s eyebrows made the acid kick in even harder and convince me to vote. Golden Sunshines – not even the Allman Brothers could ease me down.
Yes, the taint of the Carter is pretty bad. Which doesn’t mean I don’t deserve my denouncement.
My parents, they loved the Carter. Still do, I’m pretty sure.
You know, he only served on term. Obama could tap that magic for VP.
#11 BJTexs
Ditto.
Also the last Dem I ever voted for. Lesson learned.
People are always surprised by the limited effect of the youth vote. That’s because people who bloviate about the youth vote think in terms of kids fainting in the aisles at Obama rallies and not so much about the youth vote serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, or going to NASCAR races, or, you know, working for a living…
– Get this. The Left is dumping on McClelland for not speaking up sooner.
– I guess their point is “Damn Scott…..If you’re going to lie for us, at least do it earlier when it would have counted.”
– Again, this phony non-issue, (theres absolutely no new lies that we haven’t heard from the Left for 7+ years already), is not going to save Obamamessiah from the cliff of his incoherent Iraq/foreign policy foolishness.
– Obama’s camp is already micro-slinking back from yesterdays knee-jerk reactions, now claiming that the junior Senator “always intended to make a ME trip after the primaries were over”.
– Read:”After he won’t have to explain to his nutroot followers why hes forced to make sense and recognize the gains in Iraq since the beginning of the surge, a move that would make the hard Lefts heads explode.”
– ….Mr Philbin….paging Regis Philbin…..please pick up the courtesy phone….
It might surprise you to learn that I have always been registered as an Independent and don’t plan to declare for any party anytime soon. I toyed with registering Republican in 2006 but my disgust with the party in general and the tools who are running it gave me pause.
I have voted for Dems and Reps and even one independent (yup, Perot in ’92, my other idiot vote.) Parties and colors mean very little to me. Issues, principles and leadership mean much, much more.
Thus whenever some troll comes rolling in here to paint me as some neo/theo/chickenhawk ‘Thuglican fascist, I just laugh and laugh.
JD: Keep it up, big boy, and the brown stain will taint your white chocolate mocha/latte whatever.
BJ – Not only do I denounce you, but I condemn you, and hold you personally responsible for the entire Carter and Clinton administrations, all of their actions and inactions, all earthquakes, glacier ice, and traffic accidents that have occurred since. THEOCON
/spit
School is out for almost all of these young voters, and they’re back at home for the summer under mom and dad’s roof. Without a searing social issue to rivet their attention (Vietnam War and the draft, civil rights), I wonder if many parents (hopefully) aren’t doing a little educating this summer.
Another question I have is how many of these kids take the time to figure out how to arrange to get an absentee ballot shipped to them at college. Most of them have permanent residence at home, not at school.
One last anecdotal point. I have a niece (first-year kindergarten teacher), a nephew (college junior), and another nephew (graduating from high school) who live in Virginia. I’ll be seeing them next weekend. I’ve been assured by the schoolteacher and the college junior that they’re squarely in the McCain camp. And the nephew graduating from high school enters the U.S. Naval Academy in about four weeks–I don’t see an Obama vote there! So I’m doing my part.
BJ: Most Texans are independent by nature. I should know, I are one. Besides, like Pop said, “Every once in a while this country needs a Jimmuh Carter to get a Ronald Reagan.” Kind of like an enema or something.
As far as the “youth vote” goes, at least 75% of the messiah’s male support on college campuses comes from dudes just trying to bang the hot chick in sociology class that always wears the Obama shirt. Come election day they’ll be sleeping off bong hits and Jäger.
#29
I love you, man
Karl,
Kurtz outlines the scope of BHO’s Blueshirt Fascisti fairly well. The bacillus of progressivism does have a higher incidence of infection within the 18-29 group but it seems most deadly within the prog plantations and college campuses. Those locations actually encompass only about 30% of the cohort. NV, VA and CO contain no prog plantations – it will be very hard for the Camicie Azzurre squadristi to do sufficient damage. OTOH – MO has two plantations (MO-1 and MO-5) and is ripe. The downside there is that the ACORN squadristi are well into diminishing returns due to their efforts in ’04. The distribution of the plantations really isn’t going to help BHO that much. I count 13 (out of a total of 65) with impact in potential swing states and FL-3/19, IA-2, NM-3, OH-9/10/11, PA-1/2 and WI-3/4 were all worked over very hard in ’04.
Maslin is whistling among the tombstones.
Was it Carville who said a campaign relying on the youth vote is a losing campaign?
Not much history of the “youth” vote turning out IIRC.
-#33 – Fine…..but you’re still not getting my bud bro…..
– Oh, and sashal…..this should interest you…. The Obama camp is “updating” his stance on the Ieaq trip by the hour. Apparently someone diplomatically pointed out to him that calling Iraq a sistraction was a little less than smart. so now the talk is a possible moving up the date of his departure. Of course while all this embarrassing “catching up” is going on, Ledty talking heads are still on TV calling Iraq a distraction.
– Does the Left hand ever know what the other Left hand is doing? Or is it all just underhanded…..
Will the youth vote win it for Obama this fall?
I predict the youth vote will be as powerful and important this campaign as it has ever been in politics. Just ask the Obama Girl about her vote.
– Somebody should quickly fire off an Email to Pelosi and Reid, before one of them gets in front of a mike and soundly denounces all trips to Iraq “a distraction from the important issues, and political theater”, just 15 minutes after Obama announces a departure date….
All of this talk about Obama possibly going to Iraq is a distraction … from my digestion.
Looks like somebody got inside the left’s OODA loop.
Rob, the Left’s loop is DAOS: Decision, Action, Oh Shit.
Regards,
Ricq
The Youth Vote Will Save Us!
Rick,
I have noted O!’s ties to ACORN here before, but that is good follow-through by Kurtz.
Really? I thought it was AJE: Action, Justification, Excuses.
Ed Guy- Isnt she dating Anthony Weiner and isnt he a ‘confirmed bachelor’ (read: gay)
Does having a beard make her hetro? Must say, though, Hilly has way better taste in chicks than her husband..
I want some of what BJ was on.