Philly Inquirer:ÂÂ
Lost in the excitement of Barack Obama’s coronation this week was an inconvenient fact of Tuesday’s results: Hillary Clinton netted approximately 150,000 votes and is now poised to finish the primary season as the popular-vote leader. In some quaint circles, presumably, these things still matter.
Real Clear Politics keeps track of six versions of the popular-vote total. They are, in ascending order of inclusivity: (1) the popular vote of sanctioned contests; (2) the total of sanctioned contests, plus estimated votes from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington caucuses; (3) the popular vote plus Florida; (4) popular vote plus Florida and the caucuses; (5) the popular vote plus Florida and Michigan; (6) popular vote plus Florida, Michigan, and the caucus estimates. After Tuesday, Clinton now leads in two of these six counts.
If you believe that the most important precept in democratic politics is to “count every vote,” then the sixth category is the most inclusive, and here Clinton leads Obama by 71,301 votes. Of course, this includes the Michigan result, where Sen. Obama had removed his name from the ballot. So while it may be the most inclusive, it may not be the most fair.
The third and fourth counts – the ones which include Florida – seem more fair. Here, Obama is clinging to a slight lead of 146,786 votes (257,008, with the caucus estimates). However, with Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota remaining, he will almost certainly finish behind her in these counts, likely by a few hundred thousand votes.
But could Clinton take over the lead in all of the popular-vote tabulations? Quite possibly. In Puerto Rico’s last major election, two million people voted. Let’s assume that turnout for this historic vote – Puerto Rico has never had a presidential primary before – will be equal to or greater than that turnout.
If Clinton were to win Puerto Rico by 20 points she would pick up at least a 400,000-vote margin. This would allow her to swamp Obama in the popular-vote counts, which include Florida, making her the leader in four of the six permutations of the popular vote. At that point, Obama would be left clinging to the least-inclusive count, which he now leads by 441,558 votes (551,780, including caucuses).
To understand how razor-thin this majority is, consider that if the Puerto Rico turnout is slightly larger than we have imagined – or Clinton’s margin is slightly greater – then Clinton would finish the primary process leading in every conceivable vote count. With two million voters, a 28 percent victory would put Clinton over the top even in the count, which excludes Florida and Michigan and includes estimates for Obama’s caucus victories.
Hmmmm. Wonder what’s going on at No Quarter.
But Baracky is more symmetrical. You can draw a line right down the middle. Same-same.
“….Of course, this includes the Michigan result, where Sen. Obama had removed his name from the ballot.
– He removed his name, hoping MI would go uncounted. No on held a gun to his head.
– On the 31st we’ll all get an idea of where this circus is headed. Pass the popcorn…..O!
This is why I reminded folks yesterday that O! was too cute by half in yanking his name off the MI ballot. It’s hard to argue MI was unfair when you’re the one who yanked his own name off the ballot. Perhaps he should have yanked his name from all of the ballots and claimed to be the nominee by universal acclaim.
As a practical matter, the superdelegates will go with O! He (generally) played by the established rules, and outplayed the wildly arrogant Clinton campaign by those rules. Tossing O! aside would likley lose them up to nine states they can’t afford to lose in a general election. O! is their only rational choice. And O! remains well-positioned to win a general election. However, after the election, the DNC ought to be looking at whether the way in which O! gamed the system — as McGovern did in ’72 — really serves the party going forward.
MI was a self-inflicted wound, and any votes they give him are a gift.
Karl – Introspection does not seem to be their strong suit.
“Gamed the system” [?][!!!] What a rube you are. I guess Karl hasn’t been kidnapped by the Obama Underground.
Hey Karl. Obama owns you. Get over it.
Who said the MSM can’t do in-depth investigative journalism these days, digging out the facts on matters of vital importance in a riveting mann………zzzz zzzzzz zzzzzz zzz
Sorry, dropped off there. What was I saying?
Oh, yes, you knew the rules when you entered the race so stop whining.
Oh wait, this is the democratic party? In that case, carry on.
I guess we could call the Democratic primary rules a living document.
Well, more like the undead. BRAINS!!!
And he’s gonna make you work. Take that, Whitey!
Can I haz ‘Bama?
I guess we could call the Democratic primary rules a living document.
More like, guidelines, really.
Baracky is much riskier than Hillary would have been. He promises to align that poor little party with terrorist states and multilateral schemes while raising taxes and socializing medicine and stigmatizing capitalism. The upside for Democrats is a little vague from where I’m standing.
This is fascinating. I mean, what if she does win in the popular vote all around????
You can bet she has this figured out nine ways to Sunday.
I find myself rooting for her, so it’s official….I’ve lost my mind.
Someone, anyone, please help – I thought that part of the “problem” with the Dem system was that it is not winner-take-all (and I suppose the problem in this case is that since the delegates for a given state are proportionally split, even though Hillary isn’t mathematically eliminated yet she can’t realistically get 100% of the remaining votes and therefore 100% of the remaining delegates).
Am I right about this? And if so, is the real problem that MI and FL have no delegates but Hillary has those “popular votes”?
Concentrate.
The Dem system, by not being winner takes all either by state OR by simple popular vote, largely removes any chance that significant minorities of their “big tent” will be even remotely invested in the final decision of their primary process.
Because the very ethos driving Democrat philosophy denies the “will of the people”…
… in favor of GOOD INTENTIONS.
Now for the last seventy years the flaw in this mindset has mainly impacted the nation as a whole filtered via the actions of the incumbent liberal elite. It took almost two generations of farming the American Black folks as hopeless, helpless victims to destroy their family unit, and Reagan killed the Soviet Union before entitlement economics could drag our standard of living down to that of Minsk. But today, with the occasion of the Clean, Articulate, Black Guy bumping up against The Woman From Hope (who both hold identical core beliefs – power for power’s sake), all the identity politics tactics used against conservative or Republican (you know, teh HateRz) to gain the PR high ground just rebounds, reverberates, resonates, and finally destroys the Tiedyed Vegan Pirate Crew of the Utopian Hopey Changey Tomorrow, absent preconditions…
I am putting in for days off come convention time. It’s going to be the feel-good ticket of the year for conservative observers in a year that offers, frankly, damn all but a sh*t sandwich without bread, otherwise.
Damn. I hope that makes sense to somebody.
TMJ – Spot on. Though if I understood it, there must have been a lot of one-syllable words.
At this point it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that Senator Clinton is simply trying to put herself in a position in which she can force Senator Obama to take her as a vp candidate, and with his inexperience and basically weak nature she could effectively run the show without being the figurehead everyone attacks.
Furthermore.
Someone should let Mrs. Clinton know that the MSM has already picked Obama as the winner so there is no need to cast anymore votes.
Even when Mr. Reynolds links I never click over to No Quarter. That man is sort of a deranged jagoff I think. Just going by stuff he’s written.
Seriously, Senator Clinton can still win this, the problem is Rush Limbaugh was too successful in his Operation Chaos attempt. He literally accomplished chaos in the Democratic party and the press: by keeping Senator Clinton realistically in the running, the press was covering both candidates in a way that damaged both (particularly Obama). There was an agreement at a certain point: Obama wins and we just treat it as a done deal. It was the only way they could counter Operation Chaos, by pretending that the race was over even though it is not. They declared Obama the winner and have started to cover the race in that manner instead of how they were before.
Basically, they realized that their love of the horserace and covering the candidates was hurting their main goal: getting a Democrat in the White House at all costs.
That’s a fair analysis I think. It was the is the race hurting the Democrats’ chances in November meme. They used that a lot to cow anyone who wanted to point out their obvious Obama lust. What was interesting is that the meme was aimed both at journalists who were sympathetic to Hillary and real people. That’s how NPR played it anyway.
The kind of deranged jagoff who thinks that two years in CIA makes itself an expert on international security. His ego has been fed little but McDonald’s shakes and fries, I think.
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