For your halftime entertainment between tonight’s big Democratic electoral tussles in Kentucky and Oregon (hah), here is a brief observation of what the Gallup tracking poll(s) say about the current state of the presidential race.
Despite the telephone polling from Kentucky showing a large number of Democrats willing to vote for John McCain over Barack Obama, the Gallup tracking poll data so far shows not only that Obama has opened up a 16-point lead over Hillary Clinton, but also that he has finally started to make inroads into a number of her key constituencies, including whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics.
Gallup’s current head-to-head tracking polls show either candidate leading presumed GOP nominee John McCain, but within the poll’s margin of error.
Thus, the Gallup tracking poll suggests that Democrats are beginning to unite around their ultimate nominee.  The close head-to-head numbers suggest that there has not been any significant defection of Democrats or Democrat-leaners to McCain. Conversely, the inroads Obama has been making apparently do not yet extend beyond Democrats or Democrat-leaners to true Independents.ÂÂ
The American public, dealing with a weakening economy and an unpopular war, already overwhelmingly thinks the country is on the wrong track, yet both Democrats hold an insignificant edge over McCain (esp. when considering these numbers break down into 50 state elections [plus DC] ). For all that we heard about Clinton’s supposed inevitability, and all that we are hearing about Obama’s irresistible charisma, the election looks to be shaping up as close as 2000, 2004 or years in the 16-year cycle of “change†elections.ÂÂ
Of course, all polls are snapshots. As the news that Obama has won a majority of available pledged delegates (presumably without Florida and Michigan; I did not check) sinks in with the public, perhaps Obama will start pulling away from McCain in the head-to-head matchup. If not, Obama likely will be forced to wage a negative campaign against McCain.
McCain’s supporters ought not to expect to dine out for long on his war hero status. If being a brave combat fighter pilot were trump, Chuck Yeager would have been elected President by popular acclaim. And George H. W. Bush would have been elected twice.
The overall polls will probably end up showing a much tighter race in the Electoral College than in the popular vote. This could be offset by a big turnout by California Republicans, but that won’t matter (California will still go to Obama.) I expect a 52% Obama win with a squeaker in Electoral votes, while McCain loses a key state or two because of defections to Barr (probably in the West.) Nader won’t affect much this time.
And if you think Obama won’t wage a negative campaign against McCain, you are delusional. It helps that Obama could sound hopeful while killing McCain’s pet rabbits while McCain sounds like he’s a rabid attack dog while he could be ordering a cone at Dairy Queen, but I have no doubt that this thing will get negative. Obama will be waging a high-dollar campaign of attack in places the Republicans can’t afford to defend. In the end, it won’t make much of a difference except in the GOP’s wallet. But a win is a win, no matter how absurdly fought.
Yeah, Karl, that’s without MI and FL. Mrs. Clinton’s arguments are two: swing states and (possibly) popular vote, if each and every sacred vote is counted.
It is 6 months until the election. 6 months is an eternity in politics. Everything from the economy to the war could look different by then.
I hear that Congress is sueing OPEC. Seriously.
Obama will lose FL, PA, and OH; MI will be in play, as with the rest of the upper midwest.
The electoral math just isn’t favorable to Obama.
And head-to-head National polls are useless anyway. There are 50 individual elections. CA is 10% of the electorate, yet that advantage is discounted by the fact that CA is reliably Dem, and the outcome of the general election is pretty well known before Californians have finished voting – in other words, people who are pro-Obama, and reflected in the head to head polls won’t vote at all, knowing the outcome is more or less assured.
I’d quibble and say “51,” but the District of Columbia’s electoral votes have never been up for grabs. 25 billion years from now after the earth has burned to a cinder in the sun’s fiery demise, DC’s electoral votes will still reliably click for the Democrats every four years.
And when the outcome isn’t in doubt, it really isn’t an election.