When Gary Mayor (and Barack Obama backer) Rudy Clay started hinting that a shocker might come out of late-reporting Lake County, IN, someone in Hillary Clinton’s campaign was probably tasked with pulling the video of Bob Beckel on FNC, telling the story of some primary in which he asked a prior mayor of Gary when the votes would be coming in and was asked how many votes he needed. But it looks like Clinton will eke out the squeakiest of squeakers in the Hoosier state, while getting beaten soundly in North Carolina.  It turned out that “expected” 15% loss leaked to Drudge wasn’t Clinton spin after all… who knew? (A: Not Clinton.)
After blowing some earlier races by overfitting the regression models, kudos are due Poblano for almost nailing Indiana and overshooting Obama’s number in North Carolina by only a couple of points. Looking at those analyses — as well as the latest from Jay Cost at RCP — suggests that the campaign continues to play out as one of organization and demographics.ÂÂ
In Indiana, Rush Limbaugh will likely claim the credit for himself, but Obama did his usual bang-up job in organizing early and absentee voters — many in the aforementioned Lake County.  Clinton folks were telling FNC’s Major Garrett that they had to pour everything into Pennsylvania and lacked the resources to fully organize either state. Is that CYA spin from a losing campaign? Sure, but that does not mean it is inaccurate, either. Weak organization would explain Clinton’s slippage with white women and union households relative to Ohio and Pennsylvania, though the latter might have something to do with overlapping racial demographics in these states (impossible to say without crosstabs for the exit polls).
As Marc Ambinder, the Wall Street Journal and Jay Cost (though more obliquely) note, racial polarization, SES polarization and (I would add) generational polarization are increasingly evident in the exit poll results. So we can expect pundits to speculate over whether disgruntled Clinton supporters would really jump to John McCain, and how much the Rev. Wright might hurt Obama in a general election.
None of that speculation affects Obama’s lead in the delegate race. His margin of victory in North Carolina also puts him ahead again in the various popular vote counts. However, the counts including the disputed Florida and Michigan primaries are still close enough that Clinton is likely going to stay in the race ahead of expected wins in West Virginia and Kentucky, absent a tsunami of superdelegates moving to Obama in the next week or so. NRO’s Jim Geraghty notes Obama will make up some ground in Oregon, leaving Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana.ÂÂ
Having mentioned Puerto Rico once or twice before, I note that about two million Puerto Ricans voted in 2004, even though they did not get to vote for president. Delegate selection there has switched from a caucus to a primary. The most recent poll I have seen put Clinton ahead by 13%, but that poll is about a month old. On the other hand, Hispanics (while by no means monolithic) have generally been cool to Obama. That Clinton would try to argue a popular vote lead on the basis of Puerto Rico strikes me as Quixotic, but that would be in keeping with the thrust of her campaign for some time, including the bizarre trial balloon floated last night about waging a post-primary campaign to sway superdelegates that would include ads and direct mail.
One slightly surprising note: For all of the twists and turns the campaign has taken in the past couple of months, my February 27th analysis shows just how little has changed in that time.
Is Hillary Finished? Don’t Count On It
Methinks he has fallen prey to logic. Just sayin’. When it comes to the emotionally driven Leftinistra, one cannot rely solely on logic. Big error. As I was writing this post, I received a very special email from the Hillary Encampment…screenshot b…
Hillary ain’t done.
I have a feeling that the greatest liability for Obama in general may be his wife, who can not be denounced and repudiated.
She has already opened her mouth a couple of times quite awkwardly which caused me to some cringing effects .
Wright was not enough to derail Obama in primaries with dem and independent voters, and that will go into not so important history in people’s hearts and minds, even if GOP will try to revive it(and GOP base does not count, their vote is not going to change)
Karl, poblano nailed it at 14-15% percent.
It would be decent to give him props for the better model.
sashal….wright only really works for the theocons and old ppl that are churchgoers.
for secularists, wright is irrelevant, cuz we are pretty much not influenced by our churches.
thus, the catholic vote goes to HRC.
but that is why O is resilient to wrightdamage for his core demographics. we don’t go to church.
Newt says the repubs are in truble.
more bad news
and on the 15th may mccains med reports are due out. even if they are beniegn, the attendent publicity will emphasize mccains age, which is an issue.
i suspect team mccain will try to neutralize the med reports with a VP announcement.
This is possibly the most inane argument I’ve seen nishi make. And that’s saying something. It’s slightly akin to saying that presidential candidate Tom Cruise’s brand of religiosity is irrelevant because you don’t go to church.
well slart, i have said before that we will elect a scientologist president of this country before we will elect a mormon.
;)
and that is a false comparison tho. theocons and churchgoers assume that wright shapes O’s attitude and opinion.
the rest of us don’t.
hahahaha
Then the rest of you are idiots. You expect that since church doesn’t shape your opinions, then it doesn’t shape the opinions of candidates who do go to church? This isn’t logic, it’s wishful thinking or (even worse) wishful meme-propagation.
You know what would be really cool? If O was a GAMER! Man. Then they could probably take a crap on the stage, and nishi and her ilk would still vote for him.
Then “HE”. More coffee.
Oh, so the rest of you are just willfully voting for a guy you believe to be a liar. Now I understand.
nishitiot is still pushing the exact same memes as when it resurfaced around here. If you are going to subject us to your brand of teh krazy, nish, at least come up with some new material.
nishi’s exhibiting (separate from her ginormous ego) the same sort of willful dismissing that I’ve noticed in others when it comes to Obama.
Despite her and thor’s best efforts to define a precise metric for why people would ignore Wright, TUCC (and his associations with Marxists and socialists and the sorts of people like Fidel, Hugo and Daniel Ortega who think he’s DA BOMB!) in fact it has much more to due with not wanting the changyness and historical importance to be tainted by such crass questions and examinings.
I’m seeing this more and more with normally critical, reasonable people. They are so deeply dissatisfied with status quo politics and governmntal malfeasance that they are mesmerized by the promise of “real,” fundamental change that Obama has worked so hard to project. Throw in the “feel good” idea of the first Black nominee and, potentially, president and this group has eased themselves into a comfort zone of “positive politics.”
Thus their reaction to Wright is to be both angry at the pastor and very concerned that such things will cause others to see the shining example of “new politics” as something lower and more crass. In my discussions with several who fall into this type (including my oldest daughter) they are very defensive about protecting the brand and attempt, often quite angrily, to dismiss any and all attempts to engage in a pointed examination of Obama by eithert dismissing all the concerns out of hand, accusing me of being a wingnut who just wants him to fail for ideological reasons or by pointing at the other two candidates and squacking “you want me to vote for them??” (Remind you all of anyone?)
I’ve never seen anything like it on such a large, wide scale. Other candidates have been devastated by much less than than what Obama has had to deal with and yet he continues to float above the fray with force shield intact.
Listen to nishi and thor and others. I’ve heard this discussion played out several dozen times and it doesn’t vary much.
The Short Answer: STOP HARSHING MY OBAMA MELLOW BY ARGUING INCONVENIENT FACTS!!
Maybe he really has mastered the Jedi Mind Trick.
BJ – All he has done is prove that the LeftLibs that are most influential in the primaries are every bit as dumb as you suspected they were.
JD: you miss the point, my friend. I expect left libs to be mindless partisan sheep when it comes to empty rhetoric and shiney newness. The people I’m refering to are mostly moderate, middle class and not normally prone to being hoodwinked by politicians, being cynical about politics in general. They are the ones willfully ignoring all of the evidence to the contrary to cling to the hopey changey.
That concerns me, especially when my daughter, as bright and poltically educated as most, is echoing the same theme. she actually refered to him as a “master legislator” which caused me to just about burst a gasket.
we’re doomed. or does that have some meaning that includes “not actually legislating”?
Secular? I thought you were a muslim? Actually, I see that you don’t believe it either.
And thank you for the stunning revalation that McCain is old. It’s about time that secret came out.
Listen to BJ, guys. The last time I heard anything like this level of “lalalalalalalaIcan’tHEARyou!” was J. Carter, and to my shame I was participating.
McCain and the NRC appear to have formulated a strategy dependent on siphoning off those who buy the basic meme but actually think about it. It remains to be seen what the effect of that will be, but at the moment I see few if any rays of hope.
Regards,
Ric
lolz pablo, ima secular sufi.
i absolutely believe in the separation of ANY church and state. ;)
haha, ur just jealous!
mccain doesn’t inspire anything but a desire to hand him a cane an tell him to sit down for a while.
;)
*yet he continues to float above the fray with force shield intact.*
I agree it may appear that way but I don’t think its that way in fact. The bad news/character issues are not going to affect the die hard “Obama is my savior” types but it certainly will affect the people on the fence. One of the guys in my office (and a former military guy) was all about Obama two months ago. Now, after we poke and prod him a bit, iots obvious he’s changed his mind and he referred to the Wright situation as one of the reasons. His take on it was(which is in keeping with mine), “I don’t know for sure Obama is prejudiced against white people but his pastor and his church certainly are”. I feel the same way and its too risky to put a prejudiced black man in the White House. Obama, his poor life choices and his speeches on race have made this race about race for many white people. They just don’t trust him. and its not because he’s black, its because he’s the type of black candidate that white folks are concerned with, when possibly they wouldn’t mind a more mainstream black candidate who doesn’t carry the baggage Obama does. Unfortunately for the democratic party, they don’t have many (if any) black potential candidates who aren’t at the Obama end of the liberal spectrum.
haha, Matt Newt say wright wont work!
Thanks, Ric. I’d also point out that the last time I’ve seen this level of utter disgust with government in general and presidential politics in particular was the 1992 delusional rise of Ross Perot. To my eternal shame, I helped usher in eight years of the minority president Bubba by voting for the EDS looney tune.
It hurts my teeth to think about it.
more resilience
I tole you before, Karl, O sees Wright as a tactical problem, not a strategic one.
It seems the electorate agrees.
ima say……not another old white guy.
anything but that.
There’s no such thing as a secular practicing Muslim. At least one of those words does not mean what you think it means. And yes, nishi, I am somewhat jealous of you. Life would be so much easier if I were delusional. Pesky reality occasionally dismays me. But then, I’d have to be muddleheaded and I don’t think I’d like that.
nishi: Both Bill Clinton and George Bush were younger than Obama when they were elected. What the hell are you talking about?
Gods, tell me it’s because you hate Campaign finance Reform or don’t trust him on immigration policy or aren’t comfortable with him on economics but to just dismiss him as “too old” while willfully blinding yourself to all of the reasonable questions about Obama makes you both bigoted and delusional…
Oh, wait a minute. Never mind.
“There’s no such thing as a secular practicing Muslim.”
huh? u don’t have a clue about al-Islam. Sistani and most shi’ia are big believers in the separation of church and state for one example. The Sunni imposed the caliphate, the religious theocracy when Imam Ali was murdered, and essentially locked the Shi’ia out of government.
The Sufi endorse separation of church and state.
We are mystics and metaphysicians. We make no claim on governance.
Okfine BJTex…mccain is a gastaxholiday panderer.
theres a discriminator.
also…mccain cant read the teleprompters without screwing up.
and he couldn’t remember the difference between the shi’ia and the sunni for the length of time between his latest briefing and posin his question to Gen. Petreaus.
and he sought hagee’s endorsement.
i have many reasons…..is that better?
[…] Karl at Protein Wisdom is in for the long haul. […]
but Obama getting confused about Iraq and Iran in the same hearing? eh, folks make mistakes.
and actually…i do think Wright might have gotten much crazier as he approached retirement.
remember, i do have some expertise in early dementia.
maggie that was one time
mccain’s was a repeat mistake.
Obama is a fast learner, that is another reason i will vote for him.
he hit the god bless america hard last night, and reached out to the 40% too.
um nishi:
And yet most shi’tes live in … wait for it … Iran! how’s that separation of religion and state going on there?
Oh and BTW: Sistani has called for the Iraqi government to be incharge of the country instead of Mookie al-thugr’s militas but he has also called for a government and constitution based upon Islamic principles. you can dress it up as “separation” but that dog is still a Theocracy dog.
Nice try, though…
HTML tag idiot, I am.
Pah. The whole situation is looking more and more Carteresque to me. People talk about “change elections”; current disgust with the Powers that Be™ is so strong that Obama supporters are basing their whole attitude on a crapshoot, and do not care to be reminded of that. That’s also the attitude that got Carter into office.
On the other thread, thor attributes his behavior to “drunken exuberance”. That’s about right. I dunno who’s going to be around with aspirins and hot coffee when the morning comes, but nobody cares about that while they’re ten feet tall and completely covered with hair.
The only real hope here is to work on people like the ones Matt describes. It amounts to rowing upstream in a strong current, and what do we get if we succeed? –a man who thinks the proper solution to pork and earmarks is to stuff Ted Stevens ’til he bursts. A campaign slogan of “we suck marginally less than the other guys” does not inspire activism.
Regards,
Ric
ima say……not another old white guy.
anything but that.
That’s the political sophistication of a 16 y/o. Which, if you think about it, goes right along with the O tagline of “HopeyChanginess.”
We are mystics and metaphysicians. We make no claim on governance.
Wait. What definition are you using for the word ‘secular’?
hmm…i have friends that describe themselves as secular jews, and they are theists.
i suppose there are gradients on the meaning of secular. to mean it just means my “religion” is wholly separate from politics and government.
why is it bad for Sistani to advocate Islamic principles in Iraq’s government but good for you theocons to advocate judeo-xian principles in ours?
im confuzzled.
:(
ima say……not another old white guy.
Racist and agist. Nice little brillo pad chucker.
Wait. What definition are you using for the word ’secular’?
Non-Christian = secular. Didn’t you know that MayBee?
my “religion†is wholly separate from politics and government
that’s a really anemic view of religion I think. Kind of like oh I never wear those shoes to the meetings. Those ones are just for weekends.
I guess you’re confused because that’s not what BJTexs said. he was just pointing out that it happens.
I have this purple shirt in my closet what was like that for awhile. But now it really needs to go to Goodwill or something I think. What sucks is that it has a drycleaning tag on it.
that’s a really anemic view of religion I think. Kind of like oh I never wear those shoes to the meetings. Those ones are just for weekends.
More happyfeetbrilliance.
here there be sufis
oh feets ur wrong.
it more like my favorite pair of tall boots, the really beat up ones with the brown tops that i had backzippers put in.
i wear them every time i can.
;)
to mean it just means my “religion†is wholly separate from politics and government.
Ok, but that is kind of your very own meaning of the word.
so?
it still means pablo is wrong.
still…i hear a lot of how the infusion of judeo-xian “ethic” is what makes western culture and western governments so superfab.
All Sayeed Ali al-Sistani is trying to do is the same thing…to use what he sees as the good parts of his religion to inform HIS government.
so?
it still means pablo is wrong.
No, matoko; it means you are an ignorant twit.
I liked Education Guy’s idea about handing out dictionaries without definitions, and letting everyone full theirs in however they wish. Apparently nishitiot already took that course.
How can we forget, when you demonstrate it practically every minute?
He also got a pass on wanting to enact a ban on fissionables. But that may just mean he’s an idiot.
Secular doesn’t mean separate church and state. It means worldly, rather than spiritual.
Now I’m back to wondering why any of us expect nishi to bother consulting a dictionary, when she can’t bother to even try and spell correctly. Spelling, meaning; who really gives a rat’s ass, right? Why do we expect meaning to be preserved on the output end, when it so frequently gets completely mangled going in the other direction?
O still hasn’t won the nomination and Hillary is still hanging around like Jason in the “Friday the 13th” franchise. She is not going to drop out for the “good of the party” and may still finagle the nomination at the convention.
– I Blame it all on Rush. (and Obama agrees)
– Forget Bush. Apparently a few of the Dimbulbs are finally reaalizing hes not running again.