Given that most of the television coverage — as expected — tended to focus on states, even when most states do not award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, I jotted down Dark Lord Karl Rove’s “back-of-the-envelope” delegate estimates.
On the GOP side, Rove estimated roughly 520-550 delegates for McCain, 220-250 for Romney, and 200 for Huckabee.
On the Dems’ side, Rove had pre-California estimates of 629 delegates for Clinton, 568 for Obama. That is is roughly in line with the 606 to 534 estimate from the Obama camp pre-California.
Both Rove and Camp Obama emphasized Obama’s wins in Red states. This development should not shock regular PW readers. Some of this can be attributed to the large black vote in GA, but is also likely due to Obama’s strength in rural areas. Moreover, Obama tended to focus on red-to-purple states, often caucus states, where fewer Dems means cheaper delegates.
Update: During the transition from Brit Hume to Chris Wallace, the latter mentioned that Rove now figures Hillary could end up with over 100 dlegates more than Obama for the night. This would put Obama below the expectations set by his own campaign.
Update x2: The latest estimate from Camp Obama is Obama: 677 – Clinton: 634, without California. Plouffe!
Comment by happyfeet on 2/5 @ 11:44 pm #
Check your math. Pretty sure McCain has 666 delegates.
Comment by B Moe on 2/5 @ 11:55 pm #
What I am wishing for: that Obama will narrowly defeat Clinton in popular vote and delegates but the super-delegates will throw the nomination to Hillary anyway, and the nutroots go seriously fucking apeshit. Looking at the Dem turnout compared to the Reps it will take something along these lines to keep her and the Dems out of the WH.
Comment by JD on 2/6 @ 12:00 am #
BMoe – They are motivated, to be sure. That is the fundamental driving factor in my absolute belief that it matters not who the Republicans nominate, there is an asspounding to come.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 12:02 am #
If that’s true JD, then I guess McCain needs to be the nominee. That makes me feel better really.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 12:04 am #
Not really a lot better though.
Comment by Karl on 2/6 @ 12:05 am #
The overall turnout numbers are bad for the GOP, but straight-line projections are dangerous in politics. It is still quite possible that the Dems will become embroiled in a nasty intra-party struggle all the way through the election, which might greatly affect the enthusiasm on that side.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 12:10 am #
McCain is very alluring to disaffected Democrats. Many many will happily suckle at his old man breasts.
Comment by John Lynch on 2/6 @ 12:17 am #
Karl,
The delegate count among the Dems needs to be done with and without the superdelegates. The Clinton camp counts them as “pledged,” the Obama camp doesn’t count them yet as they are not supposed to declare until the convention. By that method (not counting the Supers) the Obama camp says they are ahead in delegates. Just saying: see what the various claimers are counting before doing the comparison.
Comment by JD on 2/6 @ 12:23 am #
Karl – At this point, the best I can hope for is an all out war on the floor of both conventions.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 12:31 am #
I’m pretty sure the media will more than make up for the disparity in the Clinton-Obama delegate count, you won’t even know it’s here. Lot of pressure on Romney to quit though.
Comment by Karl on 2/6 @ 12:31 am #
I’m just relaying the numbers from Obama and Rove for tonight. I don’t think Rove was including the supers, but don’t hold me to that.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 12:38 am #
MayBee hasn’t stopped by tonight I don’t think. I kind of promised I’d more conjoin my criticism of McCain to actual policy stances and substantive stuff if it became clear he was the nominee person. I’m going to really try. And also cause he might be the president. I just wanted to put that here so I’ll hold myself to it better.
Comment by JD on 2/6 @ 12:38 am #
Romney ought to quit, for the good of Fuckabee. What a snake oil salesman. Does he bite the heads off of vipers?
Comment by JD on 2/6 @ 12:39 am #
happyfeet – There is still hope for total chaos and pandemonium at the convention.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 12:46 am #
That’s true, and it would be welcome, even though I think mostly that would be more to the media’s benefit than towards the advancement of anything real and positive. Both parties have beclowned themselves. But on Huckabee seriously I think I’m gonna pull the Flannery O’Connor out of the bookshelves this weekend. And I’ve never read Cormac McCarthy.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 12:47 am #
That Huckabee speech tonight creeped me out on a visceral level.
Comment by MayBee on 2/6 @ 1:06 am #
Fuckabee
Oh my!
BMoe, I share your fantasy, although mine involves lawsuits as well. Blue on Blue Hot Legal Action.
I see you over there, haps.
Comment by psycho... on 2/6 @ 1:10 am #
No. They’re really not like you.
That “D” is an identity affirmed in ritual. An “R” is not. Their party’s turnout increases steadily with the population. Yours fluctuates based on who’s running. Yours is a (shitty, incoherent) political coalition. Theirs is a hive.
McCain keeps people home. Hillary, no matter how she gets the nomination, doesn’t. She’s run the numbers for the primaries and traded black votes for Hispanic and young for old and rich for poor now, because she knows it won’t stick. They’ll come back. They always, always do.
Republicans don’t.
This election is over.
Comment by Karl on 2/6 @ 1:17 am #
psycho,
I read your earlier link, which was quite interesting. I remain unconvinced, however, that the number of people who will not vote for McCain ever is outweighed by the number who would prefer him to Hillary in November. We who read or write blogs should not assume we are representative of the general public, for we are not. The GOP won in 2000, 2002 & 2004 on turnout. The Dems did the same in 2006. The consistent near-majority “anti-” vote for Hillary should not be dismissed.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 1:20 am #
There’s a point for you I guess. In the back of my mind of the Democrat people I’ve talked to, the ones that say they seriously may vote for McCain, they’re kind of the people who would like to say that and think that they’re being for real. But it would be a really big step for them.
Comment by McGehee on 2/6 @ 1:48 am #
Just once, I’d like to get the government I deserve.
Comment by Sara on 2/6 @ 3:13 am #
At 1:09 AM PDT, according to CNN’s delegate count, McCain = 539, Romney = 211, Huckabee = 148, Ron Paul = 16.
Btw, McCain came in 4th, after Romney, Huck, Paul in Alaska.
Comment by Estela on 2/6 @ 4:05 am #
Clinton has a big chance to represent the Dems. I’d really like to go for Obama, only if he was more experienced.
Comment by Dennis D on 2/6 @ 6:25 am #
“Seize the Moment” ” Change” ” Moment of Destiny”
These are the broad feelgood generalizations Obama uses. He is an empty suit that can speak extremely well.
Comment by Pablo on 2/6 @ 6:51 am #
One that I know, with a full blown case of BDS, is supporting McCain. As much as he despises Dubya he despises Hillary. And this is a guy who thinks Olberdouche is doing trenchant commentary. I think there’s a lot of that Hillary Hate out there and I’m praying that she’s the nominee anyway. If it happens as B Moe postulates and it comes off as a “stolen” nomination, that is simply fabulous in a whole bunch of different ways…except for the President McCain part.
Comment by McGehee on 2/6 @ 8:16 am #
Well, for me the worst thing about that part of it is, it would become associated with the fun times of watching the Democrats conflagrate, and before I knew it I’d almost be thinking having him in the White House might not be so bad.
But then he’d get sworn in, and…
Comment by Darleen on 2/6 @ 9:00 am #
Pablo
The one thing I worry about is a Hillary/Obama ticket.
The GOP will be out of the White House for 16 years.
Time we started seriously working on Congress and the Senate. That’s if Pres. Hillary doesn’t shut down speech she doesn’t like with the Fairness Doctrine and getting those parts of McCain-Feingold that regulate political speech on the internet reintroduced.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 10:15 am #
Tonight, I think we must get used to the idea that the media has pwned this country.
Comment by B Moe on 2/6 @ 10:22 am #
The GOP will be out of the White House for 16 years.
I am just not seeing that. Carter/Mondale rode a huge wave in, didn’t work out so well for them. Didn’t work for AlGore either. It is easy being the minority party contrarian, just ask Newt. Once you get the reins the whole game changes, just ask Newt.
Comment by B Moe on 2/6 @ 10:24 am #
…just ask Newt.
Or Pelosi/Reid, I meant to add.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/6 @ 10:35 am #
I don’t want to ruin Brainster’s Ruby Tuesday gem so here I’ll say the National Review and Hugh and other Romney fetishizers really screwed the pooch. All that ink and for what? Not to advance limited government. It was the Ken doll factor I think. Identity politics for the reals.
Comment by alppuccino on 2/6 @ 10:44 am #
Don’t worry about ruining Brainster’s chorus, happyfeet. I took care of that for you. Run with it.
Comment by B Moe on 2/6 @ 10:46 am #
Here is something to chew on for you all:
http://tinyurl.com/yoydhj
As scared as I am of Hillary, having Cotton Hill’s finger on the trigger if Iran goes nuclear doesn’t comfort me much, either.
Comment by Cowboy on 2/6 @ 11:40 am #
My father, who is a psycho-lib, tells me that he would never vote for Hillary. His candidate of choice?
Wait for it…
Ron Paul.
Please, God, let it be Nature over Nurture.
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