At Outside the Beltway, James Joyner does everyone a favor by linking to Eric Kleefeld’s compact summary of why Sen. John McCain will have a Super-Duper Tuesday. Unfortunately, Joyner does this as part of an analysis of the McCain-Romney tussle  called “The Conservative Minority” containing an unhealthy amount of codswallop.
Joyner notes two countervailing trends — that conservatives generally prefer Romney to McCain, yet McCain is winning Republican primaries against Romney — and comes up with three possible explanations:
Perhaps “conservatives†are now a minority, even among Republican primary voters?
Joyner offers no opinion of his own on this theory, but it should suffice to note — as he does not — that the exit poll data directly contradicts this theory. Whether Joyner’s thinking on this point is wishful or merely lazy is known only to him.
Alternatively, perhaps the definition of “conservative†has become so narrow and esoteric that it’s become virtually meaningless?
Joyner rejects this explanation, noting that America has become more socially liberal since 1980 (a generalization which has some truth to it) but concluding that, “fundamentally, we’re the same country we were in 1980.” Joyner could have offered some observations of how voters see the GOP candidates and what it says about the public perceprion of conservativism as social conservativism, but he chose not to do so.
This leaves Joyner’s third hypothesis:
The conservative majority has become a Conservative minority.
Joyner engages in some very sloppy thinking on this point. First, he conflates the “Conservative Movement” with conservatives generally.ÂÂ
Second, he compounds his error by claiming the movement is dominated by Ann Coulter and Jonah Goldberg and Michael Savage and Neil Boortz. Ironically, he zeroes in on Coulter’s remarks at last years CPAC, without mentioning there was fairly widespread distaste for those comments among conservatives.
Third, Joyner seems shocked that conservatives are not embracing McCain who stood with Reagan at CPAC in 1974 and has a lifetime ACU rating of 82. Joyner, to put it mildly, is living in the past. McCain has not managed an 82 ACU rating in any year since 1996. McCain’s most recent ACU rating was 65 — ten points below Sen. Chuck Hagel. In this century, John McCain opposed supply-side tax cuts with class warfare rhetoric — does Joyner seriously believe Reagan would have stood for that?
Joyner wrote that he felt like he was beating a dead horse in writing about the McCain-Romney split, but it is more like a dead unicorn. As previously noted here:
The support for McCain, like this election in general, is not about issues. It’s about personal qualities and changeyness.
Joyner can be added to the list of people who do not understand the obvious.
The thing about Republicans is, their lists seem all polluted. Somehow McCain voters are on lists they’re not supposed to be on, and are not on lists they should be on. Elizabeth Dole probably screwed this up.
McCain has not managed an 82 ACU rating in any year since 1996.
This is who they are.
First, he conflates the “Conservative Movement†with conservatives generally.
Beats conflating the Conservative Movement with nazis, as libs are wont to do.
“Beats conflating the Conservative Movement with nazis, as libs are wont to do.”
Or classic liberals, for that matter…………….
cleo – that “conservative” in your head is not likely to exist in the real world. you reality based community or community based reality people sure do like imaginary voices.
Of course, lots of things beat a dead unicorn.
I dunno; if you actually had a dead unicorn, you could probably make a mint on eBay.
I have a feeling 2010 will bring a good dose of reality; the shock alone will be enough to forget the unicorn is dead.
Right. Also keep your ass out of Europa by then I think.
How much is a healthy amount of codswallop?
I don’t know that a RDA has been established for codswollop, or for that matter and LD50.
Probably best to just avoid the stuff.
cleo:
I’d like to engage you in banter over that comment, but I had a long, very bad weekend, and can’t seem to muster up the strength to make the leaps of (il?)logic necessary to make an ounce of sense from your comments. Also, the will. Your petty evil just isn’t worth the effort today, so I’ll just have to offer a brief, but pithy, STFU.