Knowing that I enjoy going beyond horse race polls, PW regular happyfeet asked about the state of Sen. John McCain’s ground game — so I looked into the question. What I found is the media equivalent of Goofus and Gallant.
Adam Nagourney takes the role of Goofus for a New York Times article in which he writes:
Republican officials said three of the candidates  Mr. Romney, Mr. McCain and Mr. Giuliani  had built up extensive organizations here, and tapped experts from the political machine created by Jeb Bush, the former governor.
Yet by the time he typed that, Nagourney had already reported this:
Mr. McCain, after shutting down his operation here during his campaign’s financing crisis in the fall, opened six offices in the state on Sunday, and aides said he would begin advertising on Monday. Mr. McCain, of Arizona, plans a series of bus trips across the state, starting Monday morning in Central Florida.
Shutting down your operation and having to re-open offices a little over a week before the primary does not strike me as having an extensive organization, but I’m funny that way.
Jonathan Martin plays Gallant at the Politico:
While he’s trying to catch up on money to match a certain self-funding rival, McCain is at the same time trying to rebuild his Florida organization on the fly. After last summer’s implosion and subsequent cost-cutting, McCain yanked his paid staff out of the state.  ÂÂ
A McCain aide said that deputy campaign manager Christian Ferry — who is close to campaign chief Rick Davis — will run the ground game there.  He’ll be helped by Buzz Jacobs, who had originally been in the Sunshine State before being sent to direct the South Carolina effort last summer.   Along with Richard Quinn and Trey Walker — McCain’s Palmetto State veterans — Ferry and Jacobs played a crucial role in delivering South Carolina on Saturday.   Melissa Shuffield, a former aide to Sen. Mel Martinez, has taken a leave from her job in McCain’s Senate office to handle the massive Florida press corps.
Still, McCain lags far behind what both Romney and Giuliani have organizationally in Florida…
I am sure that McCain’s crew from South Carolina is capable, but that victory was not won in nine days:
McCain has spent the better part of the last two years courting members of the Palmetto State GOP political establishment — work that yielded support from the leaders of the state House and Senate as well as the state attorney general — in hopes of reversing his fortunes from eight years ago.
Marc Ambinder claims it was five years of hard work, albeit without providing us a link. Granted, McCain may be able to draw upon any assets from his pre-implosion phase that have not ended up with another candidate, but it seems clear that McCain’s organization will be lacking a bit in Florida.
Nagourney quotes the Republican state chairman as saying that he thought Mike Huckabee had the weakest political organization. Indeed, he is rumored to be as broke as Rudy Giuliani. Nevertheless, as previously noted, Huckabee’s organization is non-traditional and may not be obvious to the party apparatus in the Sunshine State. Having started with nothing, Huckabee is used to campaigning on a shoestring, at least while the trail is one state at a time. This is not to say that Huckabee will win; rather, it is to say that a loss there would be more likely the product of loss of momentum and the demographics of the state. Regarless of victory or defeat, his presence in the field probably helps McCain and hurts Romney.
McCain (afaik) has nothing like Huckabee’s non-traditional networks. What McCain and Huckabee share, however, is the ability to attract and milk free media. This will be key when faced with the logistical nightmare of Super-Tuesday.
Moreover, as important as organization can be, it is not determinative.  The candidate is the most important factor. Mitt Romney organized extensively in South Carolina, but ultimately pulled out because there simply were not enough Romney voters to be organized, given the conditions and competition on the ground. It simply made more sense to rack up some delegates in Nevada (though as we saw on the Democratic side, they are not as committed as the media would have you believe).
Giuliani was once heavily favored to win the GOP nomination. He spent millions in Iowa and New Hampshire (albeit not enough on organization) and did early organizing and campaigning in Michigan, but ultimately pulled out and finds himself hoping that organization — his “get out the early/absentee vote” effort — is his firewall against declining poll numbers.
Fred Thompson’s issue positions and communication skills should have made him a consensus candidate, but early organizational stumbles and lackluster campaigning have his aides and advisers privately talking about whether or when he will endorse McCain after he drops out. A leader of the draft-Fred movement is switching to Mitt Romney, with more defections likely in the days to come.
Thus, the state of play seems to be that Romney has the checkbook and the delegates to wage a campaign of attrition. McCain and (especially) Giuliani need a win to bring in the money necessary to survive Super-Duper Tuesday. Huckabee — barring a bigger surprise than Iowa — is largely helping McCain at Romney’s expense, while Thompson is helping Romney (and perhaps McCain) at Huckabee’s expense.
Update: The Miami Herald reports that Huckabee will likely spend his time and money outside Florida. The story demonstrates that he seems to have been spending moe time in Georgia. (h/t HotAir)
If Thompson endorses McCain I think I might be ok but only if that’s a precursor to his becoming McCain’s running mate. If he’s for real that McCain is his main dude like in real life I think I’ll be really really pissed that I gave him my moneys.
I take that back. Thompson stopped Huckabee. Whatever happens next he deserves to be on a postage stamp just for that.
See, I think by Thompson staying in he’s helping McCain. The day he gets out, Romney will get 5-15 more points per state as most of the Fredheads would go to Mitt from the polls I have seen. Romney is literally the only one who can now stop both Huckabee and McAmnesty.
You know, we need to stop calling this a horse race, because a horse race you don’t decide the winner until the end. I think this is more like a drag race morphing into a parade.
IMHO Rudy’s not running until Florida has helped McCain. Rudy went from #1 on the way to nomination to getting his pic pulled from primary reporting at some news sites.
Thompson’s problem was just not doing enough events and flubbing some of those that he did do. This isn’t the kind of race one can play late catch up.
What bothers me is the constant drumbeat that only McCain can beat either HRC or Barry. How much of that is push polling? And especially in a Barry v McCain matchup do we revist the BillyJeff v Dole match? Young and vigorous v Old and cantankerous?
Granted, there IS a good chance Mitt might not win against the Dems…but do I really want to settle for a McCain – Amnesty, anti-free speech – Presidency?
McCain has likely been keeping his contacts with various state party officials and organizations since 2000, not just for two to five years. That, in my opinion, has hurt Thompson who hasn’t been doing that, making those connections across the state parties.
We’ll see if that kind of long-time connections can beat a really big checkbook.
Mikey NTH,
I am on record as saying endorsements matter more than people think. In this case, enough to help McCain compete on Feb. 5. But Romney’s really big checkbook built him some infrastructure. McCain — as in FL — likely had some and lost it last summer. McCain may be able to partially reassemble it, but some of his contacts probably went to other candidates.
My view is that the media are using mis/disinformation to make sure that the election is in the bag for candidates of the “identity politics” persuasion.
On the Democrats side that is all they have left.
On the Republican side both McCain and Huckabee are running “Identity” type campaigns with a slight difference from the Democratic side. The Democrats use as identities things you are born with. The Republicans are using identities that are choices.
Changing our system from issue oriented to identity oriented is the whole point not who is elected.
Right now I figure just about any story in the media is some kind of spin designed to destroy the country I love. As in the Iraq war coverage, the campaign coverage needs to be taken apart and shown for the propaganda it is.
Karl – I agree with the endorsements being very important, but what are also important are the actual members of the county and state political parties. I was involved in the Michigan GOP once and will be again (I kind of dropped out after I moved). The people who show up at the county meetings, who attend the Lincoln Day dinners, who go to the conferences and the conventions are important. Candidates have to make contact with them early because these are the people who will work polls, these ar the people who volunteer for your phone bank, these people will go door-to-door and donate money. These people will vote. These are your unpaid volunteer foot soldiers. Running a campaign without them is unthinkable.
I went to a dinner for the Eaton County GOP last yyear. Mitt Romney was our speaKer. It was his campaign’s way of getting advance information – who in Eaton County is willing to support him, who is on the fence and can persuaded off.
I like Fred, I like his positions, but I think he started too late – not with the announcement, but with meeting state and local GOPers. They were already gone by the time he announced. I think his campaign now is best thought of as prequel to 2012 or 2016. At this point he is getting his name out there, he is meeting with people. Keep watching him after this summer. If he provides support for the nominee, actually going out and doing some work for him, then Thompson is laying ground work for a future ruin; a hundred percent certainty if he is still moving about various state party events next year.
Those are my thoughts.
‘future ruin’ = ‘future run’.
Boy, did I say something subconscious or what?
[…] Associated Press, among others, confirms the sad condition of the Huckabee campaign, noted here earlier today. Although the AP and the Politico lead with news of top advisers working without pay and some […]
[…] contrast, as previously noted, McCain had organizational and problems in Florida following his summer slump, while Huckabee is not fully […]