Given that my last post was one of many criticizing the establishment media’s fixation on horse race polls, it is of course only fitting that we now… take a look at the horse race polls!
NRO’s Jim Geraghty surveys the recent polls and concludes:
McCain is probably up a bit, Giuliani’s a bit behind him, and Romney and Huckabee are probably a bit further behind that.
He is a tad dismissive of a Drudge report:
RASMUSSEN Florida poll to be released: Romney 25, McCain 20, Giuliani 19… Developing…
Drudge has now provided the Rasmussen link:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.
Given that polls always have some margin of error, it cannot be said with any certainty that McCain or Giuliani “inched up a point.” The only candidate that can be said to have moved within Rasmussen’s poll is Romney.
Moreover, in looking at the polls reported through Jan. 20 at RCP, the Insider Advantage and Research 2000 polls — taken at roughly the same time — were at variance.  The Research 2000 poll, taken 1/14-16, had a three-way tie between McCain, Giuliani and Romney at 20-21-20%, respectively.  The Insider Advantage poll, taken 1/15-16 had McCain at 20% and Romney leading with 25%. In this context, the Rasmussen poll may show movement to Romney.
Geraghty seems somewhat baffled by that suggestion:
It’s not that I don’t believe it, so much as I’m not sure what’s happened that would trigger a mini-Mitt surge. Were Floridians eagerly awaiting the results of the Nevada caucus? Are they buying into the idea that the cumulative vote-getter and delegate winner is the true frontrunner? Does fourth place in South Carolina strike them as some great omen? Were they flattered that he gave his Nevada victory speech in Jacksonville?
Maybe Geraghty should consider that Floridians — at least those not cajoled into early voting by Rudy Giuliani — may be looking for Mr. NotMcCain and are landing on Romney as the more conservative and financially viable vehicle to Giuliani for slowing the Arizona Senator’s McMentum before Super-Duper Tuesday.
Lately, it seems as though when Geraghty starts asking sarcastic questions, it is because he is missing something.
Update: At Outside the Beltway, James Joyner has a post on Fred Thompson and anecdotal evidence of FredHeads gravitating to Romney which may be relevant to this discussion.  Joyner also comments on how candidates are perceived and the balance between issue positions and personal characteristics — a topic that will likely be the subject of a future post here.
Every time Fred Thompson and anecdotal appear in the same sentence a little piece of me dies inside. Just so you know.
This is how fags think.
PHOBE!!!
I know. But it’s so unbelievably a prissy regurgitation of the first anti-Fred meme the media launched, even before the obligatory “actor-politician” (from whence the damage derived from the politician part, which people I don’t think people a lot caught). That was the meme, and then they froze him out with that left to linger in the air like Andy Sullivan’s flatulence.
OT but you saw where Obama got his Jesus on today yes?
Anybody But McCain!
Push to the convention, then Fred.
Please?
For what it’s worth, I’m a Fredhead, and I’ll be voting for Romney. Exactly for the reason Karl gives.
I mean, this isn’t rocket science people. It is so obvious I won’t even try to avoid cliches.
You’re right, it isn’t rocket science, if you keep voting for your second choice, you get second-rate candidates. It is over 7 months til the primary and people are pissing themselves in panic. Why is it the longer the race gets, the more impatient people become?