Take a look at the analysis here and let me know what you all think.
Because the title says “The Democrats are Toast,” and I’d really, really, really like to believe that’s so.
You know — for the children.
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Recent Comments
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Is the answer Mitch Daniels, or is that a different JeffG?
Daniels is a fiscal hawk, so perhaps. I am not sure Obama is toast in 2012, but I hope that is correct. If the Republican majority in the House and attempt to fix things and get blocked by the O and Reid’s Senate, yeah perhaps.
Hey for the children…but how about us?
Oh, I don’t know. I was just pointing out a possibility among governors no one had yet mentioned over there.
Sister Sarah does not think Obama is toast in 2012:
Mitch can ride his Harley in the inaugural parade.
Sarah could ride a Polaris.
The answer is Tim Pawlenty.
Romney, Huckabee, Palin and Gingrich are all non-starters, in my opinion.
Took a look at the charts and they’re all on the up and up.
What can be drawn from it politically is beyond my capacity. I suppose I’d look for historical cases to see if I could quickly disprove the general hypothesis or not.
Also, I really like Alvin Greene, and he needs a job.
in my experience just going by the dirty socialist Associated Press propaganda whores – they usually say it takes about 100,000 jobs to break even when a D is in the White House but for Bush it was 150,000 or more
I suppose I’d look for historical cases to see if I could quickly disprove the general hypothesis or not.
I don’t think you are going to find an historical case that compares to all the baby-boomers with adult children living in their basement.
in my experience just going by the dirty socialist Associated Press propaganda whores – they usually say it takes about 100,000 jobs to break even when a D is in the White House but for Bush it was 150,000 or more
First of all, that AP number is way too low for the break-even rate, by anybody’s reckoning.
Secondly, the BLS data does not adjust for labor force growth. That’s why the Zero Hedge graph that I swiped is so informative. Note the green line.
I think the Chinese can get Obama & the Dems to stop all their monkeying around with the economy tomorrow if they would only come off very smug & snicker at their juvenile proto-commie economic planning. “Heh. Its so cute. You guys are doing all that stuff we used to do. When you’re ready for how its done now, come talk to us.”
oh I don’t mean to suggest the AP is accurate just that they soft-pedal it when a D is in office
You’ll brighten happyfeet’s day by mentioning Mitch Daniels JeffG. He’s had to suffer a lot of S- P- talk here today.
But you know, although y’all are probably right that folks will be looking to former governors, having seen what the lack of executive experience can foist upon the nation, I wouldn’t necessarily rule anyone out.
We’ll know in the next 6 months who’s in.
This is Pawlenty’s problem.
2008 wasn’t forever and ever ago either.
I don’t think you are going to find an historical case that compares to all the baby-boomers with adult children living in their basement.
Not disagreeing with you, Michael, just saying what I’d do if was looking at this seriously.
Failed blockquote on the first paragraph above.
Ooooh, that’s a KILLAH bh. It’s hard to dodge the stink of that, just like Romney with Romneycare…
if Pawlenty is a McCain-fellating global warming whore than perhaps he might like one of these lovely parting gifts
*peddle*
It’s arguable who does the suffering whenever Palin is brought up around here.
Gary Johnson is damned interesting. I might could get behind that guy in a big way. I love a man with a big veto pen. Sarah benefits everyone, herself included, most if she keeps doing what she’s doing right now.
I think the Chinese can get Obama & the Dems to stop all their monkeying around with the economy tomorrow if they would only come off very smug & snicker at their juvenile proto-commie economic planning. “Heh. Its so cute. You guys are doing all that stuff we used to do. When you’re ready for how its done now, come talk to us.”
The Chinese can’t really threaten us. Their politicians are hooked on a piratical exchange rate for the renmimbi, which artificially fuels their exports to temporarily maintain an unsustainable growth rate. They know they have to stop this, but they are hooked. Their real estate market is an even worse bubble than ours was. They are headed for a bust. In the meantime, they have no good alternative to socking money into U.S. Treasuries.
Is Pawlenty a globular warmening dupe, or his he just a political panderer?
Either way, it would be a deal-breaker.
Oh sorry, I didn’t answer the basic question.
The charts are correct and the jobs projections accurate. Now, I’d also like to think the Dems toast because of those facts, but, it also depends on who’s running and what the action looks like over the next couple of years.
I mean, there could be a october surprise in 2012, like The Won growing a pair and slapping Iran down. I seriously doubt this, but am using it as an extreme example.
What this does tell me is the Republican candidate in 2012 needs to be careful what they promise in terms of job growth.
Michael@23
Word.
Michael – China threatening us wasn’t in there. Just saying that the O admin would stop if their ideological Idols laughed at them.
I mean, could be Cuba, any commie place.
Pawlenty could do a walk-back from global warming. He could just say that he was duped by the IPCC and saw the light after Climategate.
i like me some dope smoking mcgovern voting dude who realized the shit is the stupid
That would make a nice contrast to the first Jimmy Carter.
or he’s a guy holding his finger up to measure wind direction.
Think the walk-back is already well underway. That’s gonna be a tough one to handle during the primary though. Especially if we’re all busy complaining about the EPA’s job murdering over the next two years.
I’d take a sex scandal or two over that baggage any day.
Some of these in power are only paying lipservice to seriously trying to improve our economy, I think. Else why are they always attacking the very engine of our economic system, the ‘evil rich people’ and corporations?
Obama I think would be just as happy with all Americans taken down a few notches to, say, the socio-economic strata of a Kenya or an Indonesia. Because we’ve got to share the wealth, and that means guaranteeing them some equal access to the fruits of our successes, or guaranteeing that our outcomes are more ‘equitable’: a ‘fair and just’ world order. All of these political and economic feints within feints are the Cloward-Piven strategy in slower motion; moves carefully played out so as to keep everything seemingly on the up-and-up.
To the topic:
Could be Obama is toast, not the Dems. Or the other way around. They are separable at present. I’d like to see a little down the road if that separation becomes more distinct before making predictions of toastedness.
The Chinese might ultimately help us out in the deal, I know a touch of wishful thinking, but the PLA clique that rules the country are good businessman, who have really taken the measure of the man, and might want to protect their sizable investment.
Just saying that the O admin would stop if their ideological Idols laughed at them.
Probably right, given his bow to the Chinese premiere.
OT: One thing I tire of hearing is that China holds “all” or “most of” our debt. Most of our debt is held by the citizens of this country. If you want to say, “most of our foreign-held debt” then more power to you.
I’m not saying anyone here has said that, only that it’s bandied about all the time.
I suspect Obama’s real ideological exemplars are the European social democrats. I think he wants us to look like France.
He forgets that France depends on us for their security.
Also, France is not too far behind Greece and Italy on the road to bankruptcy.
Eventually, Germany, Scandinavia, and the nearby thrifty northern European states are going to have to cut themselves loose from the Euro.
Is Obama A Keynesian? Rally For Sanity, 10/30/10
Even though I’m not a financial genius or even close to one, I knew that Germany would regret tying their economy to the rest of continental Europe in the form of the Euro when the idea was first proposed. I’m sure my “I told you sos” are useless, but they make me feel good.
Suck it, Bundesbank!
RAAAAACISTS!!
This could be true, especially if the Republicans run an unattractive candidate. Evan Bayh has been lecturing the Democrats over their misguided agenda, and talk a lot like some of the “moderate pragmatists” in the GOP.
His low tax/tax reform/business friendly message could resonate with a lot of squishy Republican and independants. And, well, he’s get most of the Democrats even if the proggs and black folks sat on their hands.
A lot of folks talk about Obama being primaried from the left by Dean or Kucinich, but given the results of the midterms there’s no reason that a primary threat couldn’t come from the right as well.
so wtf were you nancy and harry doing dicking around all year, bumble?
Time to link this again.
Better link.
Twenty years from now, it will still be George W. Bush’s fault though.
Here, a link to the video newrouter linked @41 that’s not private.
It fails to matter. I don’t usually make predictions, and here I’m going to be very general, but —
I don’t believe that “cumulative employment loss/gain” chart starting in summer of this year. The green line is of course a hypothetical, but the red line is as cooked as a Thanksgiving turkey since about March ’10 with elections in prospect, and what’s shown after the end of the year is simply ludicrous. It ain’t gonna happen.
Employment gains require capital formation, and with the Democrats abso-damn-lutely guaranteeing that any capital accumulation will be immediately seized (it’s the “fair share” of the “rich”), the bank mess tying up what liquidity there is in the financial equivalent of mutual oral sex, and the regulatory agencies cranking out crap so fast they need a full-time employee changing printer cartridges, the chance of significant capital formation is nil or worse, and the chance of it being put to work making stuff and employing people is less than that. What I’m saying here is that the convex hull of the blue bars is gonna be a lot closer to horizontal than any upward slope. It might even slope down more.
Yeah, the Republican Congress might be able to do something, but it’s a no-win situation. If they don’t, things get worse and the Dems can attack that. If they do, and prosperity really is right around the corner, Obama takes 48 States and the District and sweeps 400 Democrats into the House on his coattails.
And what can they do? Oh, pipe dreams: Have Col. West pick out some demolition troops and raze EPA to bedrock with the bureaucrats inside, while the rest of the Congress repeals the IRS and passes a tax law comprising ten pages for individuals and another ten for corporations. Pure masturbation fantasies, as are most of the things they could do… but won’t, thanks to the Senate, the veto pen, and the invitations lists to the best Georgetown parties with the most blow.
Sorry to Eeyore on ya.
I’ve been wrong before, and I’d be glad to be wrong now. Get back to me, oh, say April of next year. If DoE (either one) isn’t quaking in its Birkenstocks and EPA is still doing business at the same old stand, I’ll consider myself vindicated — and the blue bars will be longer.
Regards,
Ric
Ric, you can (sometimes) be a glass is half empty sort of guy.
Ric,
That’s not a projection of what will happen, but what would have to happen to erase erase the job losses.
Or maybe I’m misunderstanding your comment.
oh it might be fun to send to O! and harry reid defunding bills of various agencies. for the msnbc experience.
Are You Experienced? Jimi Hendrix
If we can’t get Hugo Chavez evicted from the White House in 2012, then there is no hope for this country.
I mean good God almighty, haven’t people seen what he has done to this country? Burned the Constitution, ignored business contracts, appointed Communists as Czars, demonized EVERYONE except unions – and on and on and on.
It’s the fucking twilight zone in this country.
charles austin
Well, the consensus (there’s that stupid word again…) is that the Great Depression was Hoover’s fault.
Well he is an artilleryman by training, so he has experience in breaching otherwise inaccessible structures
Looks to me as though those charts are saying the unemployed are toast. Now if the Democrats can be made to join the ranks of the unemployed, well then, ok, the Democrats will be toast too. But they’re going to have plenty of otherwise innocent company for years to come.
Well he did sign that stupid cluster#@$#$@#% Smoot /Hawley bill, that did to worldwide capital flows, what Ric suggests Obama is doing at a nation level
Obama “create” jobs? Since all of Obama’s policies up to now have been exhausted on “saving” jobs, I don’t think he even cares about creating any, if he even knows what that term means.
What else is a “good” Marxist supposed to do? – Say, as in serr8d:
Obama I think would be just as happy with all Americans taken down a few notches to, say, the socio-economic strata of a Kenya or an Indonesia. Because we’ve got to share the wealth, and that means guaranteeing them some equal access to the fruits of our successes….
Because when the rich lose wealth, the poor must get it, right?
jesus saves, obama spends
You’re right, winston. Not really a fair comparison.
Like Cuba?
Oh, wait…
Yeah that’s a vibe I got two years ago, ‘Hope and Change’ sounded a touch too much like ‘Bread and Liberty’ another slogan by a one time ‘articulate’ if not necessarily clean, ex attorney
the stupid at big U!
link
please don’t do anything about freedom or for you fascists LIBERTY
link
Ric, you can (sometimes) be a glass is half empty sort of guy.
Nope. I am normally a genuine pessimist, delightedly exclaiming, “Oh, there’s some beer here!” if the glass has anything in it at all. In this case I am responding to people who are telling me that the problem is that the glass is too big.
Bob, my prediction is in the last phrase: the bars will get longer.
Regards,
Ric
The object is not to take out “the rich” if that word is used in it’s meaning of “the wealthy”. They will go along with whatever power can keep the rabble from stringing them from the nearest object. Community organizers control the rabble to threaten, extort, and co-opt the wealthy. They are not what the socialist sees as the enemy.
The enemy is the defined by them “rich” which used to be called by that old fashioned name of the bourgeois. What we in general call the middle class and all those who are striving to become that. That is the enemy. That is who this economic destruction is aimed at. They are to be driven into being part of the controlled rabble either through poverty with welfare benefits or by being unionized. All in order to keep a roof over their heads and food on the table.
They want to create of the USA a 3rd world country with only two classes. The rulers and the ruled. I don’t think they can pull it off but stopping them is going to hurt everyone.
I’m not an economist but am a statistician in training. Just looking at the data, as presented, I would say that the prediction interval for the future is probably too wide to be very meaningful. Furthermore, such predictions depend on future data being generated under pretty much the same circumstances that generated the present data set. Since future public policy (like health care) will likely have a profound effect on the estimate (and empirically we don’t know what that effect will be though the statistical guesses may be interesting), I would say the best guide you will have for the foreseeable future are non-empirical (and hence non-statistical) means of divining the kind of answer you’re looking for.
#70
Either way we’re still fucked.
I would say that the prediction interval for the future is probably too wide to be very meaningful. Furthermore, such predictions depend on future data being generated under pretty much the same circumstances that generated the present data set. Since future public policy (like health care) will likely have a profound effect on the estimate (and empirically we don’t know what that effect will be though the statistical guesses may be interesting), I would say the best guide you will have for the foreseeable future are non-empirical (and hence non-statistical) means of divining the kind of answer you’re looking for.
I think what you are trying to say is that we know in our hearts that Obama is a douchebag, and he will continue to screw things up.
the best part about tost is u butter it up
then u stumble and drop it..
and if it lands ‘butter side up’ then it’s a good, good day
but if it lands butter side down..well
send in the clowns
“This is Pawlenty’s problem.”
bh,
I didn’t know that he was a warmist.
Break/break.
Haley Barbour; any takers?
not cirqui sol layyyyyy clowns either
i want my clowns to look like irish men
and to be slightly hungover
toot!
Good Night All
Good Night Cow jumping over the Moon
‘Nite, Danger.
“Yeah, the Republican Congress might be able to do something, but it’s a no-win situation. If they don’t, things get worse and the Dems can attack that. If they do, and prosperity really is right around the corner, Obama takes 48 States and the District and sweeps 400 Democrats into the House on his coattails.
– All of which is why I said that the worst thing that could happen for the Dems was for the GOP NOT to win either one or both houses.
– I’ll come back to that in a moment. First the curves. As Ric said they are simply what ifs, projections. In reality if the financial groups saw a complete reversal of governmental meddling and they could see with any clarity, or better a lot of clarity at their risk, and feel comfortable they could manage same, the economy could make an almost miraculous recovery. The curves are not fixed in stone, and could rebound just a fast or even faster than they fell. But.
– Given the rigidity of Bumbblefucks ideological brainfreeze, plus his almost desperate need to at least try to hang on to his hard left base, that has little chance of happening, even if he weren’t an ego-maniac, which he is. So yes, the Dems are toast, but it does us little good because we’re toast right along with them.
– Now as to the prospects. IF the Reps are able to effect improvements over the next two years that instigate financial investment, the gains will most likely be commandeered by the Dems, if things get worse, the most likely scenario, they will blame the Reps in the house. Neither CYA would have been possible if the Reps had not won. The total economic disaster would have fallen squarely on their heads.
– It will not be possible for the economy to enter a sociatal condition where a sharp improvement can occur until the “right” kind of conservative power is back in place. }Or put another way, until the perception among the financial groups is at a very high positive.
– So given that reality, nothing is likely to happen of any significance until at least 2012, and only then if the right government is elected and in place.
– Anecdotally I’ve been hearing exactly that from some friends that work in various banking and financial positions since Obama took office.
– I believe them.
– In other words, for at least a few more years we’re all pretty much toast.
– And on that note, pleasant dreams everyone.
we in general call the middle class and all those who are striving to become that. That is the enemy. That is who this economic destruction is aimed at. They are to be driven into being part of the controlled rabble either through poverty with welfare benefits or by being unionized. A
I read an interesting article the other day (I forget where) in which the author posits the idea that the proggs (and Obama) despite all their talky-talking about being for the middle class in truth hate the middle class. They hate just about everything they stand for. They hate where they live, what they drive, what they eat, how they consume. They are dangerous and bad for the environment.
The problem is that they have too much autonomy from the government. Too many choices. So, they’re going to take some of those choices away. Through healthcare, and “nudging”, and “allowing” us to keep less of our money.
Of course, the article was much more insightful than my little synopsis. I wish I had saved the story somewhere.
[garbled] had to suffer a lot of S- P- talk here today.
A simple solution exists.
Well, how about one for us ecommunists out here?
Yes sir, Senator (D)!
i like italian toast-not too cooked tho- i like my toast a ‘lil chewy- not all burned and hard like my mommas tits
i like when ur camping- and u wake up and cook breakfast-with the bacon smell
ahh-bacon smell as your looking out at the water..
does life get any better than that?
Something wonderful.
Regards,
Ric
I don’t want the Democrats to be toast, just the insane ones.
I don’t think it’s a great idea for one party, even if it’s my party of choice, to enjoy an excess of power. That never ends well.
I’d love to see a day when the sane members of each party refused to be strongarmed by their fringe. What a great country America could be again.
For fun.
Darrell, time was, the two opposed parties of our politics (whatever their names over the years) agreed as to the ends of our national compact and argued about the means to get to their mutually accepted goals. Nowadays, however, we have a new condition, wherein the ends themselves are the source of disagreement. Paul Ryan has ably expressed this condition on a number of occasions along with the stipulation that the next two years will determine whether the polity will choose to return to the earlier agreement on the ends of government expressed in our founding documents and Constitution as written, or will choose to abandon those ideas for the newer political ideas of the progressives.
Seems to me the proponents of abandonment must either be persuaded to change or failing that, rid from the corridors of power, if the polity is to regain widespread consensus as to the ends of that power and to return to arguing over the means to achieve those ends.
“…time was, the two opposed parties of our politics (whatever their names over the years) agreed as to the ends of our national compact and argued about the means to get to their mutually accepted goals. Nowadays, however, we have a new condition, wherein the ends themselves are the source of disagreement.”
Well said sdferr.
There are ways to fix the economy.
Paul Ryan just knocked it out of the park on FNS; and Wallace wasn’t serving up softballs either!
Awesome replies to Wallace assertion that cutting discretionary spending 25% would make the children suffer and somehow gut the EPA. He replied that discretionary spending had increased 25% overall last year alone, and that EPA’s budget had increased more than 120% over the last 2 years.
Ryan rawkz!
Win picks:
Falcons
Bears
Pats
Cardinals
Saints
Ravens
Texans
Giants
Raiders
Colts
Packers
Steelers.
I would watch FoxNews Sundaze but my daughter is watching Barbie movies.
How do you distinguish between the “sane” and the “insane”? If the rank-and-file are the “sane”, why did they let the “insane” take over the party? Why are so many of the party leaders clearly the “insane”?
And why is it so hard to call them out on their insanity?
Well, yeah.
Look at their preferred policies. They don’t like anyone to accumulate wealth, except in great big chunks that come with celebrity, pre-existing wealth, or winning the lottery. Used to be you could set up an HSA and the money would accumulate — even if you didn’t contribute any that year. Obamacare puts an annual fee on that money; you can no longer accumulate cash to provide for your medical care without the government taking more of it.
Taxes — income taxes are all about preventing the accumulation of wealth. They want to take away anything about “what you need” so that you’re no better off than the burger-flipping high-school dropout, no matter how hard you work.
I’d love to read that article if you can find it again.
people who plug in electrical cords into outlets are sane
people who wet their fingers and plug in bobby pins or any found metals into outlets are clearly insane
buzz lightyear! to infinity-and beyond!
is it insane to look up ur old girlfriend on one
of them -search’ sites on the internets? cuz they wuz the happiest days of ur life?
no= it’s just wistful thinking..
a cold shower helps u get a dose of reality
brrrr!
i think it’s insane in the membrane
to fly in aeroplanes
cuz they could just stop all of a sudden
and u’d plunge to ur death
but that’s just me
[take the A train-chattanogga choo choo]
next stop-Pottersville!
i get me some bobby- some bobby some bobby orr
kiss my trunk!
– Just look for the Union label.
It’s our freakin’ banana republic.
Conservatives want to keep feeding the fat cats. Some can see it for what it is.
Kristof? What is this, 2004?
Conservatives? Uh, the Fed and its QE2, monetizing the debt, etc., is not exactly a darling of the Tea Partiers.
Fat cats.
Can’t stop eatin’ ’em.
*urrrp*
Glad you’re onboard with some of Reagan’s guys thought, AJB.
Oh. And keeping the taxes as they are now — which is not a tax cut — will work in concert with spending cuts and hopefully other things, like corporate tax cuts and a roll-back of regulation that pushes jobs off shore and keeps businesses too scared to invest resources in the US.
If the government needs to raise revenue, as Amanpour argues, they can do so by cutting layers and layers of bureaucracy. Think of the savings!
I wish there was a good write up out there of all the regulations/fees/permitting requirements that go into effect in January. It’s a great story, and somebody organized and objective might not get dismissed as a kook as quickly as I do.
QE2 now is kind of like pouring gasoline over your self before throwing yourself off the bridge. With the noose around your neck. After shooting yourself in the head with a shotgun.
The damage is done.
The Republicans aren’t going to be doing governance right off the bat. It’s time for trauma surgery, even if the Golden Hour ended six months ago.