October 31, 2012

Plausible?

Rush Limbaugh believes some polling outfits are sacrificing future credibility for a chance to aid in a strategy to invalidate a Romney victory.

I’m not sure how they’d do this with the internals made available publicly — for instance, Obama +5 in Ohio is based on a +7 Democrats polling differential, which would make using that as “proof” of disenfranchisement or voter suppression easily debunked — so they’d have to be willing to falsify their own polling internals under the scenario Limbaugh paints.

There are other explanations for these outlier polls, though:  first, in this case Quinnipiac is willing to sacrifice its credibility to keep alive a favorable Obama narrative — and in so doing, hoping to use polling as an influence rather than a snapshot of reality; or else perhaps what’s happening is that they’re just really shitty pollsters.

Having said that, I think Rush makes a very interesting point about the exit polling from 2004.  I remember blogging on that as it happened and thinking something just wasn’t right.  Again, was that data dump, trumpeted all over the left blogosphere and in the mainstream press, intended to influence and itself suppress GOP voter turnout?  Or was it just a mistake in the nature of the calculations, as we were told?

I don’t put anything past people whose sole desire is power, and the wielding of it to meet their own ends.  I’m just not sure offering demonstrably skewed polls in support of an attempt to delegitimate a Romney win is a plausible strategy.

Even so, get out and vote in record numbers.  Let’s make it all a non-issue by beating this guy’s ass so badly that the moldering carcass of Frank Marshall Davis feels it and has to roll over from the pain.

 

 

 

Posted by Jeff G. @ 1:25pm
146 comments | Trackback

Comments (146)

  1. Pingback: Proggies Prepare Pre-Emptively To Deligitimize Romney Presidency | Conservative Commune

  2. I’m not sure how they’d do this with the internals made available publicly

    - Its not about accuracy, its about lining up as many talking points as possible to help the whre press hammer away should they get the chaos they’re hoping for as in 2000.

    - The Left is already planning frantically for a loss scenario.

  3. All must die for the sake of the narrative. Hell, 30 Rock sacrificed its last attempt to be funny for this crap.

  4. get out and vote in record numbers.

    Since my all-time record number on any given Election Day is 1 I should be able to manage that.

  5. - I expect something more to break on Benghazi by Friday, and fester all weekend.

    - BTW, Iowa just issued similar warnings of arrest if international observers break the rules at polling places, joining Texas. With two states doing the same now its obvious someone has gotten info that the Left is planning some shananigans under international cover possinly.

  6. Just keep calling until you get enough “correct” answers then discard whatever amount of “incorrect” answers you need to generate the result you want.

    Unless someone could get hold of the raw phone company records of total number of attempts made and notice that the raw attempts versus claimed sample size response rate seemed abnormally low, even the call center people would never know what was happening. If its robo-calling, then no humans would even be in a position to know that responses were being discarded as “corrupted” or “incomplete”.

  7. - Possibly ha;f the Democratic voters were swept out to sea when those graveyards in NY and NJ were flooded during Sandy.

  8. The Hill: Gallup finds majority believe Obama will win

    A majority believe President Obama will defeat Mitt Romney and secure a second term in the White House, a Gallup poll found Wednesday.

    According to the survey, 54 percent said they thought Obama will win, 34 percent believe Romney will win, and 11 percent had no opinion.

    Those numbers have been fairly stable throughout the cycle, with Obama peaking in late August at 58 to 36 percent over Romney.

  9. I found Rush’s theory implausible also, for the same reason.

    I can’t figure why they would be oversampling Democrats…it seems to me counterproductive if they’re trying to suppress the Republican vote. If anything, it would seem to build apathy for those intending to vote for Obama. It’s likely pure desperation.

    Anyway, I find polls excruciatingly boring, and my eyes glaze over as my mind wanders whenever they come up, so never mind me.

  10. OT and certainly not to minimize the anguish of those who lost their homes, but what a bunch of whiners the NJites are.

    “Why me?” they wail. Why not you? I ask.
    “Governor Christie, you have to do something! I lost everything!” Christie drapes a fat arm around Crying Lady and intones platitudes for the camera. A staffer steps up and tells him to move on.

    Chris Christie is a whore.

  11. Democrats strategy since the 80′s has relied a lot on,”Everyone thinks this way, so you better shut up.”

  12. I believe they are / have been testing out possible memes for use if O loses – Republican dirty tricks!, minority voter suppression!, Diebold! (remember that one?), Sandy – Storm of the Century!. All of them pretty weak, but if it helps them rationalize the loss, and maybe make a Romney win look less legit, well hey, mission accomplished. And just making sh*t up costs absolutlely nothing!

  13. …”absolutely”. I’m in touch with my Inner Spelling Nazi.

  14. When Romney is winning “independents” by double-digits, you have to oversample Democrats by 7, 8, 9 points to maintain the illusion of an Obama lead in order to keep your base from becoming discouraged.

    If the polls were using 2010′s actual turnout (R +2, if I remember right) as a baseline, everyone would be talking about the impending 40+ state landslide, and whether or not Romney would break 400 electoral votes.

  15. Chris Christie is a whore.

    Really? What was your first clue?

  16. On this date JHo predicts R/R 285 and O/B 253.

    Your turn.

  17. I’m with those who see the polls as influencing the narrative. If they help the Left assuage their disappointment with “we wuz robbed!” excuses, that’s just gravy to them. If they motivate the hardcore Left with “burn this mutha down!” excuses, that’s just a way for them to help their customers sell papers.

    And Chris Christie is a governor. What’s he supposed to do — tell the lady to make her kids shovel sand harder? Tell her to pipe down while the men are working? Would Governor Romney be any different? I doubt it. They’re governors; it’s what they do.

  18. I still think Obama doesn’t breach his currently conceded 201 elect. coll. vote total, leaving Dullard — o sorry, Willard — with a large victory.

  19. They’re governors politicians whores; it’s what they do.

    You can tell I’m in a cheery mood.

  20. The Obama team thinks Minnesota is in play. That right there should tell you something about the actual predicted outcome.

    This place is full of people who vote commie, even when it is against their personal beliefs, because “you gotta help people, and be nice.”

  21. I got the same numbers, JHo. Though I could easily see 291/247, if Iowa goes red, which isn’t that far-fetched. If PA went red, pushing R&R over 300, I’d be a really happy cephalopod.

    Still, none of my models show Mike Rowe getting more than a single electoral vote, and that’s only if I get named as an elector. No matter what, I’m resigned to losing this election. No worries, though — I’m used to it.

  22. I’ll match your cheery mode, Ernst. Christie is a dirty fuckin’ whore and Obama is his pimp.

    Rush spent a lot of time today calling Christie Obama’s Greek column for his visit to comfort the 1%.

  23. I’m not sure how they’d do this with the internals made available publicly — for instance, Obama +5 in Ohio is based on a +7 Democrats polling differential, which would make using that as “proof” of disenfranchisement or voter suppression easily debunked

    Last month or so, Hewitt was hammering a pollster because of the Dem oversampling, asking him at what point is there evidence of a skewed sample.

    The guy answered that party affiliation is not a fixed characteristic such as age or race or sex, and because people answer that question any way they want, it can’t be used as evidence of oversampling.

    FWIW.

  24. This place is full of people who vote commie, even when it is against their personal beliefs, because “you gotta help people, and be nice.”

    And yet they get really pissy when I suggest that they personally help people, with their own time and treasure, instead of empowering the State to do their “charity” with money they steal from me. It’s almost as though “Minnesota Nice” was just a facade…

  25. In other slow Joe news:

    An excited Andrew Sullivan squeals like a pig is as happy as a little girl!

    to quote Mike Myers

  26. Haven’t you learned by now that you can’t trust Swedes, Squid?

    N.B. My inlaws are claim they’re Norwegian, even though they spell -son -sen.

    That’s how much you can’t trust Swedes.

  27. Sen? Doesn’t that make them Danes? Uff da!

  28. What I meant to say, and signaled my intent poorly, is that a lot of people here in MN who are self-reliant still vote commie. They expect to take care of themselves, but don’t expect others to do the same.

  29. They are oversampling Democrats for the simple reason that many Republicans hang up on them or tell them to get stuffed.

  30. I’m with Charles on that. Democrats love to share their politics because it’s often their religion as well; they want to testify.

    Republicans tend to want to be left alone.

  31. Which is why it’s important to control for party affiliation as well as race, gender, age and so forth.

    Income is a variable as well, but no pollster would be so blasé about ovesampling either the very rich or the very poor.

  32. - All I’ll say is I think theres ample evidence we’re going to see 2010 redux. The silent majority has had enough of the “transforming of America”.

  33. I heard the Hugh Hewitt interview with National Journal’s Steven Shepard. Not only could he not explain why, if party affiliation was in flux, that polls only ever oversampled Democrats (never Republicans), he also had unconvincing reasons for why he deemed some pollsters “reliable” and others “unreliable. ” Basically, good polls = Obama is leading.

    http://tinyurl.com/ama55fa

  34. - They can game til the cows come home. Obana has been a total failure, and the Left, better than anyone, knows it.

  35. Some kick ass points on this thread.

    I heard that the proud, on display “Work four hour days” public union sector is doing the “Keep our eyes closed” crowds of New York and New Jersey no election favors this week.

  36. Not just a failure, BBH, but a failure to making the Left look like they even have a point. Under his administration, it looks like the government solution for healthcare is more government, that green energy is a complete joke, and that the administration will gladly put international blood on their hands if it means getting home in time for a bad episode of “Glee.”

    I’d be furious if I were a Democrat, because he’s spent four years making me look like an uneducated, petulant child.

    And then there’s slow Joe…

  37. Michigan is going Romney.

    I feel it.

    There is NO enthusiasm for Obummer. He hasn’t been here -just takes their votes for granted. Our economy sucks.

    There are hardly any signs anywhere for Obama, and everyone – just everyone – is voting for Romney. Even the young people I work with – I had to start waitressing again.

    Former Obama voters are voting Romney.

  38. Sen? Doesn’t that make them Danes? Uff da!

    Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, what’s the difference? They’re all dirty scandis.

    I tell people my wife is Russian.

  39. Your economy sucked when you voted for him the first time, Carin.

    I do hope you’re right, though.

  40. What I meant to say, and signaled my intent poorly, is that a lot of people here in MN who are self-reliant still vote commie. They expect to take care of themselves, but don’t expect others to do the same.

    My rebuttal, signaled with similar quality, is that even the self-reliant, charitable ones aren’t necessarily charitable in a way that classic charity is defined. They believe that other people should help the less fortunate, in exactly the same way that they believe other people should take mass transit. It’s all feelings and surface appearances, and not much real effort on their parts.

    It used to be that we had a lot of old German Lutheran pastors who would regularly take these people to task, reminding them that talk is cheap, the poor can’t eat wishes, and good works by their own hands were the only ones that counted. They’re all retired or dead at this point, replaced by empathetic souls who really just want everybody to feel welcome in the House of God. Which is nice, but insufficient (IMHO) to the mission of the Church.

    So we wind up with thousands and thousands of basically decent people who delude themselves into believing that they are going to Heaven because they voted for a guy who promised to feed hungry people on their behalf (and with somebody else’s money, of course). And these basically decent — but lazy — folks get really upset when somebody like me, who spent way too many hours listening to fiery German preachers as a youth, takes them to task for trying to purchase cheap Grace with a vote and somebody else’s money. Because they really believe that they are good people.

    Which they mostly are, even though they may fall short in some critical areas. As is true for most of us, they totally come through when the problem is right in front of them; it’s the problems in the next town or the next neighborhood that they choose to let somebody else take care of on their behalf.

  41. Joe Sixpack doesn’t read internals. This is for 30 second MSM hits. In other news, I’m hearing Scott Rassmussen’s house/operation got washed out. Don’t know how Michelle polling he’ll get done.

  42. Scandis make tasty pastry and good coffee. The rest of their food is sucky. Flour is a spice in Scandiland.

    I’d tell people my wife was Russian, too, if I were you.

  43. Czech makes Bagatelles.

  44. Scandis make tasty pastry…

    I prefer walnut slices in my pastry, but to each…

    And Girl Scout cookies made from real Girl Scouts aren’t all they’re cracked up to be either.

  45. Stupid auto correct.

  46. What exactly is baby oil made of? Don’t tell me . . .

  47. mineral oil

  48. “Anger Aside, Voters Favor D.C. Status Quo”

    I guess the National Journal is factoring in that Obama Benghazi bounce.

  49. Your economy sucked when you voted for him the first time, Carin.

    I do hope you’re right, though.

    Yes, but BUSH!!!! Michigan has now had 8 years of Jenny Granholm (with a moderate Republican now in the midst of cleaning it up) – and the GREEN JOBS bust hit here first. The lies of all that? Job training, etc … just as the recession (and home crash) happened here first, so did all the green energy bullshit go belly up.

    While he may still have some hard-core union support, I just feel he’s lost a LOT of his blue collar voters here in Michigan. Downriver Detroit … they HATE the guy. Out by me… etc.

    I don’t know what the feel is in Grand Rapids, etc … but the cities are in dire straits and I don’t think they much care who is president at this point.

  50. And, my pilot buddy (from the Hostages) says word from the special ops people is that there is more regarding Benghazi. Ungood things.

  51. Exclusive: Classified cable warned consulate couldn’t withstand ‘coordinated attack’

    The details in the cable seemed to foreshadow the deadly Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. compound, which was a coordinated, commando-style assault using direct and indirect fire. Al Qaeda in North Africa and Ansar al-Sharia, both mentioned in the cable, have since been implicated in the consulate attack.

    In addition to describing the security situation in Benghazi as “trending negatively,” the cable said explicitly that the mission would ask for more help. “In light of the uncertain security environment, US Mission Benghazi will submit specific requests to US Embassy Tripoli for additional physical security upgrades and staffing needs by separate cover.”

    As for specific threats against the U.S., the cable warned the intelligence was not clear on the issue, cautioning that the militias in Benghazi were not concerned with any significant retaliation from the Libyan government, which had apparently lost control in Benghazi. A briefer explained that they “did not have information suggesting that these entities were targeting Americans but did caveat that (there was not) a complete picture of their intentions yet. RSO (Regional Security Officer) noted that the Benghazi militias have become more brazen in their actions and have little fear of reprisal from the (government of Libya.)”

    While the administration’s public statements have suggested that the attack came without warning, the Aug. 16 cable seems to undercut those claims. It was a direct warning to the State Department that the Benghazi consulate was vulnerable to attack, that it could not be defended and that the presence of anti-U.S. militias and Al Qaeda was well-known to the U.S. intelligence community.

  52. While these are only fragmentary reports, they suggest that the Libyan militia scene — and the post-Arab Spring Egyptian security establishment – were like post-war Berlin; full of double agents, provocateurs, posers and con men. If that scene was penetrated by al-Qaeda agents and active Jihadists, who were building an army in camps across North Africa and far to the south in Mali, then Stevens was basically sitting on a volcano getting ready to erupt.

    This makes it easier to understand how and why the consulate was attacked and its supposed safe houses detected. It suggests how the “video” story crossed from Egypt to Libya and why that bizarre narrative became prominent in American official statements. Why? Because it was told them by a ‘trusted source’ – disinformation planted by an Arab secret service under the control or influence of al-Qaeda. Washington bought it, or found it convenient to buy and they clung to it for dear life as they saw their plans fall to pieces before their eyes.

    It may also shed some light on why the US response was so tentative. The administration was being double-crossed at the moment of attack and they may have hesitated to fire on persons they were not sure were friend or foe, who may have been in possession of US weapons and even known to possess MANPADs. Maybe they still don’t know.

    link

  53. Rush said a few weeks ago that one reason why it’s so important to hive the illusion that Obama is ahead (even if they have to weight it D+9 or higher) is that “low information voters” just want to go with a winner. Makes sense – why bother voting for your guy (one you’re not that heavily invested in) if it looks like he’s going to lose anyway.

  54. Sounds about right to me, Car in. It’s weird: I used to see a bunch of Obama stickers around Dallas, now I only see Romney.

    This has literally been the worst election campaign I’ve ever seen. The 4Bs strategy and “Ignore everything!” only works for the third of the country that has dug their heels into ignorance and free stuff.

    We need to fight harder, but I just do not believe we are a country this silly yet.

  55. “low information voters” just want to go with a winner

    - The Left really understands its base. But thats also why they’re in all out panic. The Lefturd web sites are so mind warped they can’t even use the word “Benghazi” wuthout coming unglued.

  56. BBH, I’ve forgotten where I was reading it, but a day or two ago I was reading a story about Benghazi and then started to read the comments. The second comment was “Who cares!?”

    Who are these people? I weep for my country and its stupid citizens.

  57. - They realize they’re stuck in a very bad position Leigh. Its what always happens when you try to manufacture a total lie for an ideology. The wheels are coming off the clown car in all directions, and they’re finally realizing that when Obama goes down, they and the Democratic party are going down even harder. I don’t believe they’re actually defending Jug ears at this point. They’re fighting for the very future of the party and the movement now, so anything goes in their minds.

    - The hits are coming to fast and there’s nothing in the Alinski handbook that covers what to do when the mask falls off.

    Gingrich Lobs another grenade……

    “I think you are going to see this come back tomorrow and the next day.”

    - The whorehouse press is also facing extinction.

  58. Axelrod says he will shave his mustache off if Obama loses MN, MI or PA .

    If Obama loses that bad I think he will need a better disguise than that.

  59. - The only thing the press can do at this point is simply refuse to follow the stories. They figure netter to be accused of bad reporting than get caught in a continued intentional partisan cover-up.

    - Same thing they did in F&F, but they’re not darubg to do “pushback” propaganda articles even. The only thing they’re doing is Romney/Ryan attack ads and Obama happy face crappola.

  60. but guys! guys! Romney totally staged his storm relief event.

    worst. candidate. evar.

  61. poor baracky: he knows how to destroy feces but knows “you didn’t build that”. choom thug with ivy cred.

  62. BMoe, I want him to pluck that stupid mustache out with tweezers. He looks like a walrus.

    BBH, I’ll bet Newt has the goods. He’s been around so long he knows all the Jurrassic journalists. Obama better be afeared.

    WaPo did publish a tepid Benghazi story, by our boy Yglesias, today. So the bandage whould get ripped off over the next few days.

  63. - Thats the sort of thing they’ll do maggie, but they won’t say a thing about Benghazi. I checked the 15 major press/progressive web site.

    - Not one freeking word. Nada.

  64. During his Wednesday evening broadcast, Glenn Beck revealed that he and his network, TheBlaze, are absolutely certain based on “very well-sourced information” that two media outlets — one a network — do indeed have emails proving the Obama White House gave orders to “stand down” during the terror attack in Benghazi.

    Beck said it is incumbent upon those media outlets to release the information and provide Americans with the truth, rather than shield the president. If they refrain from doing so, Beck said he will “expose them.”*

    In Beck’s world, Newt is not a source of “well sourced information.” So, it’s someone else. This could get interesting.

  65. Pingback: People get ready » Cold Fury

  66. Catherine Herridge and Jason Chaffetz are on Greta talking about cables received by SoS and POTUS that are “cries for help”.

    Incoming.

  67. In Beck’s world

    beck’s world is trying to find out what the eff is going on as opposed to: nbcabccbsnprpbsnytwashpo et al

  68. - Truth be known, it looks like someone is singing and the WH is about to get nuked. The data is coming out excruciatingly slowly, but just in time before the election for maximum effect and to give the Leftrag media and the Obama troika all the rope they want.

  69. Drudge lede – no link as yet…..

    SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN…

    STORY SAID TO INVOLVE POWERFUL SENATOR, SOURCES TELL DRUDGE. DAILY CALLER PLANS LATE NIGHT RELEASE…

  70. Stay tuned sports fans.

  71. The timing is fine by me. The Bush is a drunk driver!!!! story was posted only three days before the election and look at what a mess that turned into.

    Live by the scribe, die by the scribe DNC.

  72. dingy harry?

  73. As if. That would be epic, though. Maybe Harry’s teh ghey.

  74. - Reid….Naww….He hasn’t been between to plimp thighs in decades. Besides, the lede mentions “campaign”.

  75. Biden? He’s playing grab-ass with the interns, maybe.

  76. In other news….

    - ADP slashes job creation numbers for September, which should make Fridays jobs report even more entertaining.

    - Gallup annonced it will resume tracking polling today.

  77. OT: Looters target Coney Island.

  78. - You gotta wonder how much longer the Left can stand the pressure before they totally crack.

    - Have you noticed how Commiewood has quieted down lately.

    - Maybr the Limo-Liberals have noticed Madonna getting hooted and booed, and don’t believe its just because shes a skank. Ya think?

  79. Say what you will: glad I’ve got you guys and your take on things.

    Now, maybe sucks for Jeff because his site would have more traffic if it appealed to stone cold idiots…

  80. Why does Sharon Malone Holder hate black babies?

  81. But back to what he said, this is a remarkable claim. According to this claim, the Africa command (based in Europe) had no assets to which it could turn. None. Contrary to reports (that I have cited), there were no Delta operators at Sigonella. There was no AC-130, there wasn’t even Marine Force Recon, again, contrary to published reports that I have cited.

    They were apparently all in the field, deployed across Africa. No one was available. There were no air assets available to assist the poor souls at Benghazi. Not even an MP or cook could have responded from Sigonella. The base (the American side of it, anyway) was a ghost town. The closest asset was … the Eastern coast of the United States.

    I don’t believe it. I’m not saying that I don’t believe Wolfowitz, but I don’t believe his sources. How the hell does one run Africa command with no assets at your disposal? Besides, this answer is too easy to produce and then move on after the furor dies down.

    This leads me to the final point. There are so many reports – many of them false by design – that the picture is worse by the day. What happened at Benghazi happened. The horrible picture developing before our eyes is one of obfuscation, dishonesty, diversion, lies and excuses.

    link

  82. SEX SCANDAL TO HIT CAMPAIGN…

    Rumor has it it’s Bob Menendez and Dominican hookers on a taxpayer funded trip. I’m kinda meh.

  83. Let’s just hope Chris Christie doesn’t scold us if we mention it.

  84. Why does Sharon Malone Holder hate black babies?

    It’s not that they hate black babies, it’s just that there’s a market for killing them and they like money.

  85. Cropping the picture before you realize how terrifyingly fat he is. Why. Thats it’s own reward.

  86. Oh, underage Dominican hookers. That’s nice. They’ll reelect him anyway.

  87. How is a seat where the Dem leads by 20 points a “Likely Dem” seat?

  88. Late last night before NRO’s site went down I saw a piece there that Obama has taken out a huge ad buy in SE Michigan. Worried about the base?

  89. One other question: Why do looters dress like targets?

    Aw hell, one more: How could Bob Menendez be characterized as a powerful Senator? Powerful odor of shit, sure, but powerful Senator? That just don’t seem plausible.

  90. I must say I really, REALLY approve of this. Who knew Lowry had it in him?

  91. I’m willing to believe that journalists like Gregory are sincere in their desire to play it straight.”

    It’s sentences like that which can give one pause about Jonah Goldberg. He’s willing to play the ass.

  92. . There was no AC-130,

    37 – 24 – 27.88N 14 – 54 – 56.43 E says Boo!

  93. Jonah is not really a serious fellow. He’s more National Lampoon than National Review.

  94. It’s sentences like that which can give one pause about Jonah Goldberg. He’s willing to play the ass.

    I read that as saying Gregory is a True Believer, and I can’t say he’s wrong. Like when Obama said he believes his own bullshit. They do too.

  95. Late last night before NRO’s site went down I saw a piece there that Obama has taken out a huge ad buy in SE Michigan. Worried about the base?

    That tracks with what Carin was saying:

    While he may still have some hard-core union support, I just feel he’s lost a LOT of his blue collar voters here in Michigan. Downriver Detroit … they HATE the guy. Out by me… etc.

    I don’t know what the feel is in Grand Rapids, etc … but the cities are in dire straits and I don’t think they much care who is president at this point.

    West Michigan will vote for Romney.

  96. Goldberg is old school —as in high school persuasive essay writing old school.

    First, said the schoolmarm, grant the opposing view is argued in good faith so as to signal your own good intentions.

    It isn’t, and it doesn’t. Because the opposing viewpoint isn’t interested in arguing.

  97. West Michigan will vote for Romney.

    Except for Muskegon and perhaps Kalamazoo.

  98. - Rumsfeld says either Obama was lied to and disobeyed by his staff, or he gave the stand down order. theres no third way.

  99. We’re taking Wisconsin.

    Book it.

  100. Woo hoo!

  101. So how about N.H.? R.I., what say ye?

  102. Pablo got it (Michigan ad buy) at 9:45.

  103. No idea, sdferr. I could extrapolate but I’d just be talking out my ass.

  104. That certainly never stops the rest of us, bh.

  105. RI Red moved there, so’s I’m thinking he might have the scuttle.

  106. But to say my mind, I don’t think Obama wins Ohio anyhow. It’s even getting hard to imagine there’s a majority of imbeciles in Pa.

  107. - If only getting arrested was a campaign plus, Jill would be leading the pack.

    - And here I thought the pipeline was a dead issue unless they’re protesting China.

  108. - Bumblefuck is so toxic, even in Cal, Feinstein won’t go there, ducks debate.

  109. West Michigan will vote for Romney.

    Except for Muskegon and perhaps Kalamazoo.

    Muskegon is welfare state central. The place died decades ago.

    W. Mi is chock full of guilty whites. Grand Rapids and its inferiority complex have been trying to displace Berkeley forever. The state’s remaining western manufacturing base is also heavily dependency-based, at least culturally and morally. I don’t see Michigan being in the bag at all.

  110. 37 – 24 – 27.88N 14 – 54 – 56.43 E says Boo!

    How can you tell whether any of those is AC-130? I mean, I get that those are C-130s, but the overhead image doesn’t really show any of the guns as far as I can tell.

  111. Of course the media uses “polls” to drive the narrative. They do so for two reasons:

    1) It keeps up the spirit of Democrats who would otherwise have stayed home.
    2) They’re taking advantage of the bandwagon effect. Low information voters see that “Barry is leading” and think that they want to get into the act.

    I’m tired of watching the MFM try to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. What bothers me most is that it might actually work. Having said that, here is my marker for next Tuesday:

    Romney wins VA, FL, NC, NH, CO and WI, giving him 271 EV and the win. Neither Oiho nor Pennsylvania go to Romney, but he still manages to win narrowly.

    I would like to add one caveat: due to “accidental” military vote suppression, I would not be surprised if at least one of the states listed above magically shifted into Barry’s column.

  112. “The rest of their food is sucky. Flour is a spice in Scandiland.”

    leigh, these are the people who consider cod soaked in lye to be a delicacy. ‘Nuff said.

  113. W. Mi is chock full of guilty whites. Grand Rapids and its inferiority complex have been trying to displace Berkeley forever. The state’s remaining western manufacturing base is also heavily dependency-based, at least culturally and morally. I don’t see Michigan being in the bag at all.

    In the bag? No. That’s not what I said. I’m merely suggesting it’s in play.

    Much of upper Michigan is dependent BUT it’s a very weird mix of independent/live off the land types who don’t necessarily realize that they’re takers, not producers. Enthusiasm is meh in the cities. Places that flipped for Obama (like Grosse Pointe) – I don’t see that happening this year.

    And, the suburbs of the major cities? That is where Obama has lost ground. The inner cities themselves? I think turnout will be (much) lower than 08.

    That’s my assessment.

  114. What I mean to say is: I don’t see the 105 that should be jutting out just aft of the wing on the port side, or indeed any of the other various things that might be there (although some of those might be masked by the wing. But neither can I see all that well that those things aren’t there. The 105 should be clearly visible, I think.

  115. W. Mi is chock full of guilty whites. Grand Rapids and its inferiority complex have been trying to displace Berkeley forever.

    You’ve just described Ann Arbor.

  116. Romney will win Ohio. He will graciously accept Obama’s concession and will call his transition office a transition office instead of The Office of the President-Elect.

  117. Hopefully he continues to snub Letterman, Leno, Kimmel, et. al. as well.

  118. Romney will win Ohio.

    From your keyboard to God’s eyes. And I’m not even a real Romney fan (the politician; unlike Barry, I think Mitt is a good and decent man). But I want to see Obama’s back sooner rather than later.

  119. The only way Romney loses Ohio is if that state suddenly ceases to be the vaunted “America in microcosm” that it’s been for the last umpty-seven election cycles.

  120. I have not met one native Minnesotan who considers lutefisk a delicacy. They may have tried it and disliked it, but that’s about it.

  121. Sorry, sdferr, had to get my beauty rest last night. From the results, I should have slept in.
    As far as NH, I think it goes Romney, but there are still far too many O yard signs for my liking. Massachusetts’ proximity works both ways – lots of mass holes getting out of the Mass tax hellhole, but then wanting all of the same level of services from the state. At the same time, Mitt was a fairly popular governor and he has a home in NH, so the homeboy in my backyard effect will be there.
    The state government is solid republican and the present dem governor is term-limited and a hangover from Obama mania. I think most NHers are proud to be ‘live free or die’ and they don’t see O’s endgame as more freedom.
    So. Cautiously count NH as returning to red. After all, this red has returned to NH.

  122. Hey thanks for the inputs RI. Consider it counted.

  123. Slart.

    My thought was that the larger guns were under the wing or close to being so and only the smaller ones would be in the visible area. There is something sticking out from the side where the small guns would be. But you are right that nothing is clear.

  124. The howitzer is inside the cargo area and the barrel sticks out the side.

  125. I meant that the barrel would be sticking out under the wing from the cargo area but now I have been told it is slightly behind the wing for the 105 mm. However it may easily be that the resolution is too low to make out something that thin.

  126. It is true that the 105mm is only a bit over 4″ inside diameter. OD at the business end (including some sort of end device; doesn’t look like a muzzle brake but who knows?) looks to be about 6″.

    Granted, marginal. You’d think it’d cast a shadow, but overhead photography is dicey. I wouldn’t bet my socks on that being an ordinary C-130 vs. AC-130, but I wouldn’t bet the other way, either.

  127. As an aside, the 105mm round is not a projectile with propellant bags as the 155 uses; it’s more like a rifle round. Brass is same diameter as projectile, approximately; no oversize charge there. I worked with a woman who had a brass casing from the 105 on her desk on account of work that we did on the FLIR that is mounted on that aircraft. It’s that funny-looking ball that is mounted just aft of and below the forward gun, which is I think some sort of chain gun.

  128. Heh. Nate Silver contradicts…himself.

  129. Nate Silver is on his way back to compiling baseball statistics.

  130. I’m actually seeing a surprising number of R&R signs/bumperstickers/whatnot out this way. And surprisingly fewer signs of support for Obabo.

    This does not mean it particularly likely that CA will swing to Romney, but there you are.

    I am just trying to survive the spate of True Believerism in my house and hoping that my dad doesn’t decide we need to move from the RETHUGLIKKKAN UNITED STATES ifwhen Obabo crashes and burns in a week.

  131. Pingback: Day Of Decision « The Camp Of The Saints

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