1. Carolina: Cam Newton. A face to put with the franchise, whose previous face was a bug-eyed Jimmy Clausen running for his life from a number of large, angry black men.
2. Denver: Von Miller. Though he seems to me a natural for the 3-4, John Fox likes to use his SAM linebackers to rush the QB, and Miller is one of the best (if not THE best) athletes in this draft. The safe pick here is Marcell Dareus. But the draft is deep with DTs, and the Broncos have a number of wholes to fill on defense. My preference, should they go the route of trying for an impact DT early in round 2, is to take Patrick Peterson here. Unfortunately, I’m not John Elway.
Note: the Broncos will be looking to trade down here. I think they’d be happy to move to, say, 10, and try to take Nick Fairley, with the Redskins coming up to grab Blaine Gabbert — one rumor going around. But Washington could have Mallett or Locker at 10, so I don’t see why they’d be overly eager to move.
3. Buffalo: Marcell Dareus. The Bills were betting on getting Von Miller. With Dareus and Peterson left, they take Dareus — though Peterson might actually be the better pick in that division.
4. Cincinnati: AJ Green. Ochocinco is as good as gone. So, too, is Carson Palmer, though the Bengals still hope to bring him back. They’ll look for a QB early in round 2.
5. Arizona: Patrick Peterson. Best player available. The Cardinals need a QB, but another rookie like Gabbert probably doesn’t help them this year, anyway. Perhaps they’ll land Luck next year?
6. Cleveland: Julio Jones. An impact receiver. Richard Quinn could go here, too, but Jones gets the edge because he’s less of a risk, and Holmgren likes him some wide outs. Atlanta could trade up here to make the same selection.
7. San Francisco: Prince Amukamara. Blaine Gabbert seems the logical choice here. To me, at least. But Prince will start immediately, whereas Gabbert is a one or two year project. So. Too bad for Dallas. Jerry Jones had his little Cowboys heart set on Prince.
8. Tennessee: Blaine Gabbert. I doubt the Titans thought he’d be available. And I doubt they still believe in Vince Young. Kerry Collins turns 86 next week. Time for a new era in Titan land. Fairley and Quinn are also possibilities here.
9. Dallas: Tyron Smith. With Amukamara gone, Jerry Jones will choose between JJ Watt and Tyron Smith. Jones never drafts OT. But I suspect he’s finally realized that protecting Tony Romo has its advantages. Like, for instance, keeping his shoulder in the socket so he can throw the ball.
10. Washington: Jake Locker. Is this a reach? Yes. Is Ryan Mallett the better passer? Yes, right now. But Shanahan has faith in his ability to make QBs successful, provided they are of a type. Locker can boot and he has a strong arm. He’s no Cutler, but he might be a young, mold-able Jake Plummer. Nick Fairley or Richard Quinn are probably the better picks here. But the Redskins need a QB, and now they’ve got one with nice upside.
11. Houston: Aldon Smith. A stud for the new Phillips 3-4.
12. Minnesota: Ryan Mallett. They never thought Washington would take Locker. Oops! They could go defensive line here, but they’re going to panic. Now that Brett Favre is super dooper REALLY sure he won’t be coming back. Probably. [This is a sleeper pick. Personally, I think Webb is worth developing. But then, I’m a dreamer.]
13. Detroit: Jimmy Smith. The Lions need a tackle, also, but Smith — hampered by off the field problems — is a stud at corner. Detroit needs a cover guy. The other option here is Nate Solder, if they do choose to go with an offensive lineman. [Smith is a mid-20s pick is most drafts. So I’m taking a chance here.]
14. St Louis: Nick Fairley. Nick Fairley. Yeah, they can’t believe he fell this far, either. Note: Josh McDaniels will try to draft Tim Tebow here, but then someone will remind him that he’s no longer a head coach, and that Tebow is backing up Kyle Orton in Denver.
15. Miami: Mike Pouncey. Pittsburgh wants him if he slips past Miami, and Miami could use a running back, but I think they worry about making holes first.
16. Jacksonville: Ryan Kerrigan. Fits their team like a huge, muscular glove.
17. New England: JJ Watt. They could go running back here, but with a plethora of picks and no backs taken, they’ll grab up Watt and wait on a back. Less of a risk than Quinn.
18. San Diego: Robert Quinn. Sure, why not. Go for it. Huge upside. Great value here.
19. New York Giants: Anthony Castonzo. Eli smiles a bit. Of course, Mark Ingram could be the pick here. And it wouldn’t be a bad one. But there is some worry about his knee.
20. Tampa Bay: Cameron Jordan. De’Quan Bowers could go here — he’s a top 10 talent — but there is plenty of worry about his knee.
21. Kansas City: Gabe Carimi. With Solder gone, they grab Carimi, passing on a NT. Akeem Ayers is a possibility here, as is Muhammed Wilkerson.
22. Indianapolis: Derek Sherrod. The last of the best on the offensive line.
23. Philadelphia: Brandon Harris. They wanted Jimmy Smith. They’ll take Brandon Harris.
24. New Orleans: Mark Ingram. Too much value here to pass on a workhorse back — though they could go Corey Liuget, who they really like, or Muhammad Wilkerson.
25. Seattle: Corey Liuget. Great value pick here. I was kinda hoping he’d fall to Denver, but that’s just crazy talk.
26. Baltimore. Cameron Heyward. Ozzie don’t pass on this kind of value at 26.
27. Atlanta: Akeem Ayers. Kyle Rudolph is a strong possibility here, too, what with Tony Gonzales aging and what not. But then, don’t we all?
28. New England: Brooks Reed. Frankly, I don’t think NE stays here. They’ll trade to a team still in need of a QB, with either Dalton or Ponder going here. Mikel LeShoure is a strong possibility as well, if they stay.
29. Chicago: Danny Watkins. The Bears need help upfront. Traditionally, you wouldn’t find a guard going here, but with all the top-tier tackles gone and Pouncey off the board, Watkins makes sense. Marvin Austin does, as well. But Cutler needs protection. Ben Ijalana is a bit of a reach here, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears went that way, either.
30. New York Jets: Phil Taylor. Inoperable foot condition? Posh. Rex Ryan can fix that with his mind.
31. Pittsburgh: Aaron Williams. The Steelers could look for OL help. But Williams has great ball skills, and he could play both corner and safety. A solid pick.
32. Green Bay: Mikel LeShoure. Now, they’re really dangerous.
So. There you go. Have at it!
Yeah, I like the Packers going for a running back, too. Seen a few mocks where they have them somehow snagging Mark Ingram but I don’t think that’s likely.
Seems like Von Miller is the sort of guy you take on pure value.
Lotta bad press around Newton. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mallet go first, or at least before Cam. I’ve been trying to figure out the Bengals. They need a QB and I could see Lewis trading for Kolb to keep 85, Kolb thinks he’s worth a first round pick and DeSean Jackson is probably already injured and AJ Green is a foot taller… just sayin’ could happen
Reports I am hearing are Mallet is being mentored by John Daley.
I would look for a QB later, is all I’m saying.
Oops. Just realized I’d left Solder out. Thought he was off my board. That adjustment gives him to Indy and gives the Bears a tackle.
The Vikings aren’t even going to show up at the draft. They’re too busy buying off legislators.
Re: Quarterbacks. College ueber-success is not a very good indicator of pro skills historically. I think Blaine Gabbert, of whom I’ve been aware since his high school days, is the complete package and has the ability to be a Dan Marino clone with perhaps more Super Bowel wins.
Well Mr.Sherman I had a fantastic Super Bowel after lunch at Pedro’s Tacos, but no-one is drafting me.
If Houston doesn’t move up to 5 or 7 to get Peterson, there will be vans lined up outside Kubiak’s and Rick Smith’s houses tomorrow. The Lousisana transplants/refugees are dying for PatPete to be a Texan. The team has been touting 3rd-year freak Conner Barwin (injured last year) as the rush LB.
But if AZ/SF are asking too much for the flip (more than a 3rd and 4th)? My gut says that unless Fairly was horrible in the interview (refuses to play the nose like Fat Albert Haynesworth?)or Tennessee takes him at 8, they’ll take him. The Texans biggest problem wasn’t the secondary; it was the absence of consistent push up the middle. Fairly, a 6’4″, 300-lb. stud from Auburn, would solve that in a heartbeat. Plus, Bum’s Son had an All-Pro nose tackle with the Cowboys: Jay Ratliff, a 6’4″, 300-lb. stud from Auburn. Sound familiar?
Might want to correct the comment on Carimi since you have Solder going after this pick…
Packers choosing Leshoure may depend a lot on how they feel about Grant coming back. Not sure he’s appreciably better than Grant before the injury, but he is younger and has two healthy knees, so who knows.
The only comment I’d take issue with is McDaniel trying to take Tebow again. He’s not that stupid. But he would be trying to convince Spags that Locker is even better than Bradford and worth taking here. Having lived in St. Louis the last twelve years I’ll just note their history drafting defensive Lineman the last ten years is just terrible.
Come to think of it, I wonder if the conventional wisdom about QBs is all wrong in this draft. I’m not sure any of these QBs should be going in the first round and with the labor unrest that makes them even more iffy, not to mention Kevin Kolb is floating out there for the first team to meet whatever Andy Reid’s asking price may be.
Finally, I’ll bet Castonzo goes a lot earlier than this.
Say it ain’t so! I do not want Julio Jones. Yes, he’s a great college receiver, but the Browns’ needs are vast and taking a guy that high who doesn’t touch the ball (or ball carrier) that often is too risky. But your thinking is sound in that Holmgren likes him some wideouts. I just think with the jury still out on McCoy, and a defensive line/linebacker corps in need of some help, a defensive player would be more prudent. Either way, I’ll most likely be drunk.
I hope my Colts take a running back. Or a wideout. I want offense. I want to win games 56-49.
I don’t care who the Vikings pick. They’ll still be a player short of putting together a Superbowl winning team.
My Pats NEED ….everything. we’re too old in the places we need young and too young in the places we need experienced. JD? Your Colts are in worse shape.
JD…Your Colts need a decent defense. Are you blind? Also, Brady and Manning aren’t going to last much longer…
It’s another rebuilding year for the Vikings.
I concur on your prediction for the Ravens. They need an outside pass rusher to bolster their line…
For all of his instincts, and dedication to maintaining his speed by getting marginally lighter, Ray Lewis is losing his “impact”, so to speak. Baltimore could also use a good DB, O-lineman, and TE/WR.
Heap is still good, but not getting any younger. Same for Boldin and Mason. They need some fresh meat in the recieving corps, although Boldin, in the slot, and Heap work really good with their running offense. My black cousin, Ed Reed, is still good as well, but they could use some depth.
Because of the looming strike I haven’t kept up on the status of the team members.
3-4. burgPitts: Froggy netminders, they’ll break your heart.
If the Titans do select a 1st round QB, 8th pick, it’s likely Andy Dalton. If not a QB, then DL Nick Fairley. I’d rather see the DL get a boost, and hope for a decent QB later in the draft (their next pick, unless they trade up, is 39th).
If it’s a QB we draft at 8, then please, please newly-minted GM Reinfeldt, pay attention to his Wonderlic score this time! We chose poorly in that 2006 draft (thanks, Bud (got Aricept?) Adams) because VY does not have the mental stamina it takes to keep up with all of the necessary thinking required by an elite starting quarterback in the NFL. As a backup, he’ll do just fine; he can learn a handful of plays and routes, and finish a few games. But to lead a squad of men for 16 games requires a Wonderlic above 16 (hey, that’s my new rule of thumb: score at least as high on your Wonderlic as games you want to win!). VY had a Wonderlic score of 6, which is about how many games he’s good for before it all comes crashing down.
Round 4.35 (compensatory) New York: Glen Island, special teams.
The Aldon Smith pick by SF means that Dallas has Amukamara available. This shakes things up a bit.
Tennessee takes Locker. Wow. And I thought I had him going early.
Shanahan can now have Gabbert. Or Mallet.
Dude, you are positively eerie through 10. Can I get some lotto numbers?
Sheesh. There goes a house payment. ;D
A twenty. Lowest of all the available QBs…
The Viqueens have been rebuilding yearly for 25 or 30 years now.
Saw this quote in the comments on another blog:
“Obama, the Jamarcus Russell of Presidents. Worst draft pick in American History.”
Ryan Fitzpatrick was nearly perfect, OTOH. He’s doing OK, sure, but Wonderlic scores aren’t even close to the whole picture.
But Dan Marino? 16. Sure, everyone hated the guy, but he could play QB pretty well.
The Viqueens have been rebuilding yearly for 25 or 30 years now.
It’s all because of the Metrodome. If we’d kept a proper outdoor stadium, the ‘Queens would have 9 or 10 Super Bowl Runner-Up trophies by now. Which is why they’re so busy buying legislators, and letting the draft and the court cases take care of themselves.