Larry Sabato has helpfully and selflessly defined the 2012 electoral battleground and shockingly things look good for the Democrats. As an analysis it is absolutely hack-tacular and a stunning exemplar of the leftist approach to winning by controlling the objective label.
Here’s the Battelfield Prep Lie:
If you include the leans, 247 Democratic EVs 180 Republican EVs 111 Undecided.
Sabato is seemingly unaware that we had an election not six months ago. Here’s how that vote went:
Source: Politico.
Someone who was not carrying water for the Left would move all of the “Tossups” (except maybe whatever the hell New England state that is) into the “Leans Republican” category, and some of the “Leans Dem” into “Tossup”. Wisconsion, Michigan, Pennsylvania are “Leans Democrat”? The Democrats, with full national assistance from an energized, desperate Left, just lost a state-wide election in Wisconsin. Sounds like a toss-up state to me. The reality is that Sabato is trying to shape the media narrative by presenting this left wing fantasy as the objective, non-partisan, reasonable position.
Stripping out the progressive meme shaping, the numbers with leaners go to 201 Democrat, 289 Republican, and 48 tossup.
From a presidential election standpoint, it’s actually worse for the Dems than Politico’s map suggests. Those were congressional districts. State electoral votes, at least in Missouri, are winner take all, so the red folks in the blue areas are not shown on Politico’s map.
Hmmmph. Democrats will simply offer more green stamps for votes. Same as it ever was, only this time there will be more people ‘downtrodden’ by the ‘evil rich’ who are hoarding all of the ‘people’s wealth’.
This next election will separate the true, staunch patriots and freedom-lovers (even those who are unemployed and could likely use ‘free money’) from both the already-outed and the closeted moochers.
That would be New Hampshire. Remember that when Judd Gregg had announced that he wasn’t running again, (around the time he was flirting with the Commerce Sec job), that his seat was pretty much a lock for the Democrats? After all, Obama had beaten McCain there 52-45. Kelly Ayotte won Gregg’s seat with 60.2% of the vote. New Hampshire is not a tossup. I think maybe them gun totin’ Yankee Godbotherers chased a bunch of Massholes back across the border.
Pablo is correct, that is the great state of “Live Free or Die”. It had been drifting left, but historically has been quite a red state. It had been drifting blue with a lot of refugees from Massachusetts policies. My sense is that it is heading fairly solidly red again.
Why do people simultaneously try to escape some shit and also pack it up and bring it with them?
Cognitive dissonance. They can’t put 2 and 2 together to get 4.
I meet these jackanapes all the time: fresh from Mass, ready to decry the obvious results of a bloated state government, and equally ready to vote to bloat the government of NH. We call them Massholes.
Fortunately, elections aren’t won via wishful thinking. But you can’t blame the guy for trying!
It is imperative for the left to make the results of the 2012 election a foregone conclusion as soon as possible. Tis meme will be reinforced over and over and over and over and over.
They just know that “this” time in this new place they can do it right, finally, unlike those stupid people who messed up utopia back there.
Problem is, regardless of which party wins, we’re all fucked. I fail to see how ‘President Trump’ ‘President Romney’ or ‘President Huckabee’ results in a USA that isn’t in hock to the Chinese and committed to unending war against Eurasia (or is it Eastasia)…
That’s why we need to work hard to make the case against Trump, Romney, and Huckabee. Especially Trump, who seems particularly unprincipled.
Summarizing the field this early, I’m split between Herman Cain and Gary Johnson. Unless Palin jumps in, then all hell breaks loose.
Fortunately, elections aren’t won via wishful thinking.
I don’t think this is wishful thinking so much as providing the rest of journolism with “objective” cover to advance the narrative that Republicans are a Southern Party and that they are at a structural electoral college disadvantage in 2012.
I think Sarah Palin has all but announced. The history books will refer to it as The Madison Speech.
JD,
Exactly. The Dems and their media supporters (puppets, lackeys, whatevs) are attempting to control the narrative, believing if that claim a fictional happy Democrat advantage often enough, most people will believe them.
Bachmann is also a strong candidate, Pablo. I’d happily have MB, or Palin, or Cain. Thus far, from what I’ve seen and heard.
While I’m sympathetic to you’re argument, and agree that Sabato has given us a maximalist reading of the Democrat advantage. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the Republicans do in fact have a structural disadvantage.
I guess a better way to put that would be that the Democrats enjoy a structural advantage in the EC: CA, NY, PA, IL, and probably MI as well. That’s over half way to the win, if my tired eyes are reading those tiny numbers correctly.
I don’t agree on Michigan. We just elected a Republican Governor and both houses of the Legislature. Unions are doing push back as in Wisconsin. I am hopeful that they will fail. Detroit is becoming less of a factor over time as it declines.
If the battle is in MI, WI, and PA Republicans win. If the battle is in VA, IN, NC, and FL America loses.
Ahhhh……………………………..*
[…] Ryan Plan Would End Medicare “Pants On Fire” Wrong John Bolton: Obama Wobbly On Libya Protein Wisdom: Larry Sabato, Prepping The Battlefield Moe Lane: Sean Trende – Obama’s Not In Great Shape Hit & Run: Gary Johnson Runs […]
Michigan is far from a forgone conclusion. And the Democrat strongholds (Detroit, Flint) are emptying out.
It is also the nature of parasites to try to find a stonger host.
#22 – To where are they emptying out? I want to avoid that place, or those places.
The South. they’re moving south.
You’ve been warned.
Previous paragraph to put it in context so it doesn’t sound RACIST.
This is certainly true. See the WI Supreme Court election, and the 2010 U.S. House elections (and a whole slew of gubernatorial and state legislative elections, also 2010). The Democrats have approached their every campaign from a position of wishful thinking, and lost. Come to think of it, the outcomes of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections also support this thesis.
In fact, the only exception I’ve seen is 2008.
Bear in mind that Sabato’s rosy projection is the best they’re ever going to do. He had to work now, because he knows that Labor Day fuel at $4.95 a gallon* isn’t going to make his little map any prettier. The wheels are still coming off the Obama wagon, and I don’t see his numbers improving between now and Election Day. Never mind that the GOP (and any Dem primary challengers, Lord willing) have campaign ads that write themselves.
I’m not really worried about the Presidential election. My focus is on clearing out the rest of the Establicans and extending last election’s gains in Congress. If we do this right, we can take over party leadership in both chambers, and push through our long-overdue reforms.
* They’ll move Heaven and Earth to keep gas from hitting $5. Watch.
MI and PA, like WI and IA have been on the verge of flipping to the GOP my entire adult life. So far it’s only happened in IA (once).
And don’t even get me started on the Soviet Socialist People’s Republic of Minnesota!
Labor Day fuel at $4.95 a gallon
Try Memorial Day.
This seems right to me. Unfortunately I think Obama is going to have enough campaign cash to choose the battleground.
I am right there with you on that Squid. Last cycle my focus was to Fire Fifty from the House (we bagged 63 & I take full credit); this time I think my objective is a working SIXTY in the Senate. Unfortunately I can’t start a bank run to get to 60 the way Chuck Schumer did in 2008.
Good post, mv.
Except that Sabato “Leans Democratic” himself. So his puffed numbers for the Dems is no surprise, but a foregone conclusion.