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"Deficits Up, Unemployment Up"

I know. Shocking!

President Obama’s Mid-Session Review, an update of the Budget published by the Office of Management and Budget in February, shows that the deficit is increasing and unemployment will remain high for years to come.

The Mid-Session Review, issued on Friday, July 23 at 3:00 pm – just when people might head off for a weekend at the beach or by the pool – is not even listed on the OMB home page under “What’s New.” Unlike last year, OMB Director Peter Orzsag does not discuss it in the OMB Blog. Rather, it is one small line item under a heading entitled “The President’s Budget,” just after the appendix.

It’s unusual for the Mid-Session Review to come out on a Friday. It has happened only one other time this decade, on Friday, July 30, 2004.

According to Ethics and Public Policy Center fellow James Capretta, formerly associate director at OMB under President George W. Bush, “The fact that OMB released the mid-session review at 3 pm on a Friday afternoon is a dead giveway that they were trying to bury it as much as possible.”

A quick glance through this recent report shows why. Next year’s budget deficit is projected by Mr. Obama’s own analysts to be $1.4 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion projected in February. Over the next decade, under his own policies, the cumulative deficit would be $10 trillion. And the national debt would rise from $6 trillion in 2008 to $19 trillion in 2020.

These are Mr. Obama’s numbers, not those of his Republican critics.

[…]

Government receipts are projected to be lower, not just in 2010 and 2011, but through 2017, because fewer Americans will be working. When fewer people work, the government collects less tax revenue.

Outlays are also projected to be lower, which should be good news. But a third of the savings over the next decade are attributed to Medicare, either through the new health care law, which mandates cuts in Medicare, or through savings in the current program.

These Medicare savings are a mirage. Congress has repeatedly overridden statutory Medicare cuts, the latest being cuts of 21% in physician reimbursement, due to take place on June 1. Instead, Congress voted a 2.2% increase. With an expanding elderly population, other planned cuts are equally unlikely.

[…]

The most serious issue facing Americans today is lack of employment opportunities and how to deal with growing spending and entitlement programs.

What is the path to economic prosperity? Many Democrats recommend raising taxes on upper-income taxpayers in order to shrink government deficits and rein in growth of the national debt. Many Republicans – and some Democrats – counter that these tax increases would slow economic growth by reducing incentives to work and invest.

For one sensible observation on tax increases and growth, look no further than a new paper published in June’s American Economic Review, the flagship journal of the economics profession. It was written by Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer and her husband David Romer, both professors at the University of California (Berkeley).

Entitled “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks,” the paper distinguishes between the effects of tax changes arising from legislation and increases in effective tax rates that occur automatically, for instance as individuals move into higher tax brackets.

The Romers conclude that legislated tax changes had far more effect than had automatic tax increases. Looking at data from 1947 to 2007, and examining the legislative record behind the tax changes, they conclude “Our estimates suggest that a tax increase of 1% of GDP reduces output over the next three years by nearly 3%.” A major reason is that higher taxes have a markedly negative effect on investment.

The Mid-Session Review, which underscores the worrisome economic and fiscal conditions that prevail, should be a warning that our current policies are unsustainable. As Mr. Obama, along with other Americans, awaits the July jobs numbers due out on August 6, he might want to glance at his CEA chair’s latest paper.

Meh. Deal with it, people. After all, he won!

Because Yes you did!

59 Replies to “"Deficits Up, Unemployment Up"”

  1. pdbuttons says:

    my goat will trim ur lawn and give u milk
    but i will not bring a bag to pick up his shit
    i won’t/ but maybe i will
    i need the work/ it’s negotiable
    i’m having a half price sale on my dignity

  2. Squid says:

    The Mid-Session Review, which underscores the worrisome economic and fiscal conditions that prevail, should be a warning that our current policies are unsustainable.

    One way or another, government spending is going to fall. Whether it’s because the grownups retake their governance, or whether it’s because the money just runs out.

    The question people need to ask is whether they’d like the change to be painful and poorly managed, or if they’d prefer it to be unbelievably painful and completely unmanaged. ‘Cuz them’s about the only choices left.

  3. Mike LaRoche says:

    pd’s goat is stealing jobs from illegal aliens

  4. sdferr says:

    “The question people need to ask is whether they’d like the change to be painful and poorly managed, or if they’d prefer it to be unbelievably painful and completely unmanaged.”

    Squid, there is another possibility I think. I ran into it yesterday re-reading Burke’s Conciliation speech to Parliament yesterday. It’s a beautiful thing, all in all, and wholly an American one as well. An extended quote then:

    Obedience is what makes government, and not the names by which it is called; not the name of Governor, as formerly, or Committee, as at present. This new government has originated directly from the people, and was not transmitted through any of the ordinary artificial media of a positive constitution. It was not a manufacture ready formed, and transmitted to them in that condition from England. The evil arising from hence is this; that the Colonists having once found the possibility of enjoying the advantages of order in the midst of a struggle for liberty, such struggles will not henceforward seem so terrible to the settled and sober part of mankind as they had appeared before the trial. Pursuing the same plan of punishing by the denial of the exercise of government to still greater lengths, we wholly abrogated the ancient government of Massachusetts. We were confident that the first feeling if not the very prospect, of anarchy would instantly enforce a complete submission. The experiment was tried. A new, strange, unexpected face of things appeared. Anarchy is found tolerable. A vast province has now subsisted, and subsisted in a considerable degree of health and vigor for near a twelvemonth, without Governor, without public Council, without judges, without executive magistrates. How long it will continue in this state, or what may arise out of this unheard-of situation, how can the wisest of us conjecture? Our late experience has taught us that many of those fundamental principles, formerly believed infallible, are either not of the importance they were imagined to be, or that we have not at all adverted to some other far more important and far more powerful principles, which entirely overrule those we had considered as omnipotent. I am much against any further experiments which tend to put to the proof any more of these allowed opinions which contribute so much to the public tranquillity. In effect we suffer as much at home by this loosening of all ties, and this concussion of all established opinions as we do abroad; for in order to prove that the Americans have no right to their liberties, we are every day endeavoring to subvert the maxims which preserve the whole spirit of our own. To prove that the Americans ought not to be free, we are obliged to depreciate the value of freedom itself; and we never seem to gain a paltry advantage over them in debate without attacking some of those principles, or deriding some of those feelings, for which our ancestors have shed their blood.

  5. sdferr says:

    lesion, definitely lesion

  6. pdbuttons says:

    i bought the goat in tee a wanna
    along with a poncho and a blanket

  7. Squid says:

    Burke also included this: “The temper and character which prevail in our Colonies are, I am afraid, unalterable by any human art.”

    I maintain that he was mistaken. It took a long time, but the temper and character which prevail today are built around entitlement. We’ve trained three generations to believe that privilege may come without responsibility; that political connections count far more than merit; that sloth is to be rewarded and entrepreneurial spirit and hard work are to be punished.

    Wide swathes of the nation, where self-sufficiency and independence are still valued, will come through largely unscathed. But I fear the damage to our dysfunctional metropolitan centers will be shocking. Even more, I fear the aftermath when those who’ve mismanaged their cities for so long point to the functioning society on their periphery and blame it for their plight.

    I have nightmares where our nation turns into a scattered archipelago of little Gazas, each surrounded by its own functional Israel. This is why I truly hope that the grownups take over and start making hard choices, before things devolve past the tipping point.

  8. mojo says:

    “Good and hard”, as the Sage of Baltimore put it…

  9. happyfeet says:

    goat shit is awesome for growing the tomatoes where I come from lots of your more savvy tomato farmers head over to the goat farm and buy them some bags of goat shit and the tomatoes, they are very very tasty I miss them

  10. A fine scotch says:

    Seeing as how I’ve given up hope, I’m guessing this is that change they promised…

  11. sdferr says:

    “I maintain that he was mistaken.”

    So he was speaking about centuries then? No. He was not. Who are the grownups, if not you? And if you, then what is this despair you evince, throwing up your hands?

  12. Jeff G. says:

    Who are the grownups, if not you? And if you, then what is this despair you evince, throwing up your hands?

    Too few “yous”, I think.

  13. sdferr says:

    Sorry, I’m not following. Too few where do you mean? In the country? In the statement?

  14. newrouter says:

    it probably needs a few yinzs

  15. happyfeet says:

    It took a long time, but the temper and character which prevail today are built around entitlement.

    I tend to agree. But also it’s worse than that.

  16. sdferr says:

    If you turn the instrument “[i]t took a long time, but the temper and character which prevail today are built around entitlement” around and look through the other end, we can equally well exclaim the same thing about the creation of a government predicated on the consent of the goverened and dedicated to the preservation of their natural rights. Just all of human existence up until 1776 – 1787 or so is all.

  17. LTC John says:

    #12 – I am a “you”. I am not giving up on this country. I will work to get it back on track, I will continue to defender her from her enemies and I will make sure my kids know what is at stake.

  18. JD says:

    I just removed a crap load of money from the economy today, as we will not be building or buying until they quit destroying the economy, when we can get the best deal possible.

  19. Squid says:

    This is why I truly hope…

    Yup, there’s my despair showing again. Look, I live in a part of the world where the rivers tend to flood every few years. People will work for days on end stacking sandbags, trying to hold the waters at bay. And yet, for every husband out working on the levees, there’s a wife and kids back at the house moving all the furniture and electronics upstairs. Would you accuse these families of despair and hopelessness?

    I’m working to find and support grownups to take charge in my city and state. I’m working to convince the idiots presently representing me that they need to take my concerns seriously. I’m working to educate my cow-orkers, friends, relatives, neighbors, and associates on the consequences of our present course. I’m working with my neighbors to improve my neighborhood and offer opportunities to our children that are no longer offered by our city or our schools. But I am one man, and I’m up against an entrenched political movement that has the schools, the universities, the government, and the popular media on its side. Plus, it has about an eighty-year head start on me.

    And so I’m getting firearms training for my wife and I. I’m putting together supplies and plans to help get through the bad times, should they come. I already count wilderness camping among my hobbies, so I have a head start there.

    So, do I despair? Some days I do, but I still keep working to try to stem the tide. Though I’m for damn sure hedging my bets, because I’m not convinced that this city is going to turn itself around without a lot of collateral damage.

  20. Joe says:

    If no one has blamed Bush yet, let me do that now.

    Cheney too.

  21. Squid says:

    Just all of human existence up until 1776 – 1787 or so is all.

    So you are aware that the American Experiment is completely unnatural to our race, and something that requires constant effort to maintain. Hence, “A Republic, if you can keep it.”

  22. sdferr says:

    Let me draw back to the question whether you think there is in fact (or even only in theory if you insist) another way forward than the two you initially proposed Squid? For if you do keep such an option alive in your own mind, it wasn’t apparent to me, particularly insofar as you’d deny the weight of Burke’s observations with a flat out “he was wrong”, and more particularly as you had to wrench the quote you chose from him to do it.

  23. sdferr says:

    “So you are aware that the American Experiment is completely unnatural to our race”

    And that will be the last you’ll have of me today. Thanks.

  24. Squid says:

    I think the “too few yours” relates to the previous post, a la “What the fuck are those 45 percent thinking?”

    As I mentioned in my initial response to the post, I think that most parts of the country will come through okay. It’s just that the parts that won’t be okay happen to have the highest population density, the worst governance, the greatest reliance on transport for food, and the most potential for self-destruction. And I happen to live in the middle of one such area, so contingency planning is fairly high on my to-do list.

  25. Squid says:

    Let me draw back to the question whether you think there is in fact (or even only in theory if you insist) another way forward than the two you initially proposed Squid?

    If you mean Burke’s references to the happy anarchy of colonial Massachusetts, then yes, I believe its possible, and its a big part of the reason why I continue working to maintain the fabric of my neighborhood.

    And I’m sorry if I’ve exhausted your patience, but I just find it remarkable that what you cite as an inspiration I see as further evidence of just how much the deck is stacked against us.

  26. Ernst Schreiber says:

    THAT’S change I can believe in!

  27. Mr. W says:

    I will say it until it elicits a collective groan from the PW commentariat:

    When God wants to destroy you he gives you exactly what you ask for, and Barry is the perfect embodiment of every leftist bromide ever foisted.

    Weak on defense, spendthrift to an extent that would make Keynes look like a Reaganaut, bowing to a collection of thugs and autocrats, and professing a profound distaste for all things American.

    If leftism had merit we would all be entering a new golden age of enlightenment, instead, we are being enveloped in a sort of darkness. Everybody.

    Even the true believers, including a few of our trolls, are beginning to notice that redistribution equalizes nothing but misery. Don’t worry though, John Podesta is making millions, and his daughter, who by ability and disposition should be waiting tables, is making millions too. So you trolls have that going for you.

  28. B Moe says:

    What happens to rights granted by God if no one believes in God?

  29. Mr. W says:

    Oh. Wait. You aren’t getting jack, are you? Oh well, maybe the Podesta’s will send your troll-ass a postcard from whatever exotic locale they’re visiting on your dime.

    Hey! If you trolls work hard enough, maybe the Executives of Big Government Inc. might let you carry their luggage to their 5 star room! Oh to be that near to the center of the Social Justice Universe!

  30. This country is broke, and has in reality been broke since World War II. The difference now is that we aren’t even pretending to even want to even try to turn things around anymore.

  31. TmjUtah says:

    How they are or will be remembered –

    Carter – Misery Index.

    Reagan – Morning in America

    Bush I – New World Order (whoops)

    Clinton – “It depends on what the meaning of the words ‘is’ is.”

    Bush II – “Bring it on.”

    Obama – Unexpectedly…

  32. B Moe says:

    I’ll be in my bunker…

  33. cynn says:

    What a bunch of shit. You accuse us of being elitists. Look at you, you cleverly compare a statutory tax increase with a popular tax increase.
    The money quote imo:
    “Our estimates suggest that a tax increase of 1% of GDP reduces output over the next three years by nearly 3%.”

    These fuckers are not hiring.
    These fuckers are not investing.
    These fuckers are laying low, licking their cash, waiting out the half-assed administration’s reaction to the next gasping death-stage of the end of the American promise.

  34. B Moe says:

    And in the nick of time, it would appear.

  35. sdferr says:

    Just how are bunkers useful at fending off morons?

  36. B Moe says:

    They sail right over.

  37. cynn says:

    Yes, we morons can fly like crazy!

  38. Pablo says:

    Just how are bunkers useful at fending off morons?

    Lock the doors and open the portholes. The rest becomes obvious.

  39. pdbuttons says:

    why do i like puppies?
    cuz when u catch them they struggle
    and they taste good

  40. pdbuttons says:

    why do i like cats
    cuz they won’t pee in my mouth unless they have
    a good reason

  41. pdbuttons says:

    my funemployment checks are ending soon
    and i’m getting antsy

  42. Mike LaRoche says:

    Yes, we morons can fly like crazy!

    What?

  43. dicentra says:

    What happens to rights granted by God if no one believes in God?

    The rights get swallowed up by a megastate that was built to replace God.

  44. dicentra says:

    These fuckers are not hiring.
    These fuckers are not investing.

    Gee, I wonder why? When the ground is moving under your feet with no relief in sight, people tend to hunker down and stay put.

    Which is exactly why The Great Depression lasted so long, whereas the just-as-deep-but-much-shorter depression of 1920 was no more than a blip on the screen when Harding and Coolidge cut both spending and taxes by 50%

    Also, something has a beak strong enough to dismember crustaceans.

  45. Big Bang Hunter says:

    “Yes, we morons can fly like crazy!”

    -Unfortunately you slam into windows a lot with your batshit-crazy Socialist idea’s that remove all forms of incentive to work and produce wealth, and just leave you with bug’s in your teeth, and a lot of unfulfilled promises.

    – But you know, For the hopie/changy….and the children

  46. B Moe says:

    Also, something has a beak strong enough to dismember crustaceans.

    Does anybody fish around there? Fisherman will use crawdads for bait, sometimes tearing their claws off when they do.

  47. alppuccino says:

    These fuckers are not hiring.

    Seems that even if they were hiring, you would feel entitled to the job and not show even a modicum of gratitude. Instead of marketing yourself as someone that no company can do without, you market the companies as greedy fuckers who aren’t hiring because they’re greedy fuckers.

    I’d open with that in your next interview:

    “Tell me a little about yourself cynn.”

    “Are you greedy fuckers going to hire me, or are you going to just lay around and lick your cash?”

    Any company that hires you cynn apparently has no concern for the quality of their service or product, so if it ever happens, please let me know who it is, so that I can pull any investment, or boycott any product.

    Thanks!

  48. Carin says:

    hese fuckers are not hiring.
    These fuckers are not investing.
    These fuckers are laying low, licking their cash, waiting out the half-assed administration’s reaction to the next gasping death-stage of the end of the American promise.

    Fuckers? That’s how you view employers?

    You know, my husband isn’t hiring. He’s laying low. TO STAY IN FUCKING BUSINESS. Licking his cash? He’s carefully watching his cash, making sure he can make payroll and expenses.

    Believe me, he doesn’t make his business decisions based on how it going to make Obama “look.”

  49. Rusty says:

    #49
    Don’t waste your breath. They have no idea how the magic happens, nor do they care. As long as they can latch onto the cash. That’s all they care about.

  50. Ric Locke says:

    Rusty, that’s too simplistic. There are at least two communities of interest here, and while there’s a good deal of overlap as regards means and ideals, their goals are quite different.

    Supporters of Progressive Redistribution are basically simpleminded souls who see a direct approach and support using it. The children are hungry? –give them food. The poor have no money? –give them money. Have no money or food to give? –get it from whoever has it. (You can no doubt fill in a few more examples.) They thus become poster children for the concept of “unintended consequences”.

    Implementors of Progressive Redistribution have different motives. (At the lower or recently recruited levels they may be primarily supporters as above, but that changes quickly.) It is enormously gratifying to have people jump when you holler frog, and almost equally emotionally satisfying to be able to punish the ones who didn’t achieve enough altitude, especially when you also have the power to define “enough”. They have a job that provides both a paycheck and and that ego-boost, and mean to keep and expand it.

    It is the second group that’s the danger; supporters are mainly a problem because they are enablers.

    Regards,
    Ric

  51. Mr B says:

    My dogs like to catch and eat Crayfish. Sometimes they drop a leg. Hawks and other predator birds eat Craws as well.

    Any bets on the tax cuts being renewed? Will it have to be with fanfare and lots of “tax the rich rich”? Except, the “rich rich” will get a loophole or some incentive to offset it, maybe. A recent example is the BP deal.

    The left will be snookered and the economy gets a boost perhaps. The real pain will be in the required spending cuts. The rhetoric to fool the Left won’t be so easy there. So nothing changes, I’m guessing. It won’t happen till more Chris Cristie’s are in office.

    Till then…..Utopia!

  52. BJTexs says:

    In other words, Ric, theorists/idealists and power grabbers, with some overlap.

    Irony is shining as the current administration of !Change! seeks to allow the FBI to access internet records. This was the very sort of thing routed through FISA that had leftists in a tizzy when Bushhitler was president. Cries of jailings of innocents rebounded off the media and blogosphere with all the expectations of a fascist state savaging the innocents.

    Now the cries are muted and compressed as Disclose and Card Check and more troops in Afghanistan confuse and concern a small cadre of Marxists/Socialists/Progressives while the Chicago machine flexes its muscle and rewards it’s most trusted minions.

    Ric was right a while ago: Providing the government with powers is a detriment to everyone, not just to the supporters of the party not in power. Power and the ability to wield it is its own danger no matter what views one has with regards to policy and politics.

    I seem to remember that there were some old white guys long ago who clearly understood this.

  53. Ernst Schreiber says:

    I seem to remember that there were some old white guys long ago who clearly understood this.

    Yeah, there were. But old, white and male is so dead.

  54. Ernst Schreiber says:

    Comment by cynn on 7/29 @ 9:34 pm

    Nice tantrum. Almost like somebody struck you a glancing blow up the side of the head with the clue bat, and now you’re trying to shake it off.

  55. dicentra says:

    Does anybody fish around there?

    Nope. It’s a decorative, artificial pond near a hotel and office buildings. Surrounded by lawn and trees. No fishermen, no dogs.

  56. Big Bang Hunter says:

    – Just “No loitering” and “Stay off the lawn” signs.

  57. SporkLift Driver says:

    Comment by cynn on 7/29 @ 9:34 pm #

    What a bunch of shit. You accuse us of being elitists. Look at you, you cleverly compare a statutory tax increase with a popular tax increase.
    The money quote imo:
    “Our estimates suggest that a tax increase of 1% of GDP reduces output over the next three years by nearly 3%.”

    These fuckers are not hiring.
    These fuckers are not investing.
    These fuckers are laying low, licking their cash, waiting out the half-assed administration’s reaction to the next gasping death-stage of the end of the American promise.

    Cynn, the nail that stands up gets hammered down. I don’t see what good gets accomplished by getting hammered down. Getting hammered down only provides amusement for the mob that follows the Obama regime, and that only delays the time when enough of the mob gets bored and drifts off that it becomes possible to stand up without getting hammered down. I’d like to see as many stand up nails as possible left when the time for rebuilding comes.

  58. Rusty says:

    #56
    Turtles. Or A turtle. Otherwise known as the ‘Ninjas’ of the aquatic world. Hence the cartoon.

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