Gallup suggests there was no immediate bounce for Barack Obama from the widespread news coverage of his becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. I still think that could change as the fact of his presumed nomination sinks in over the weekend, especially if the reports that Hillary Clinton will officially suspend her campaign on Saturday pan out.ÂÂ
Gallup has also posted a basic demographic guide to the Obama-McCain match-up for the start of the general election. As horserace polls carry the usual cveats about their limits, demographic braekdowns carry their own set of caveats about overgeneralizing and the danger of falling into identity politics thinking.
Nevertheless, Gallup’s early demographic take (as well as an earlier Gallup poll looking at the marriage gap) tends to confirm the notion that this contest is (so far) much like those of 2000 and 2004. However, the first numbers carry some good news for Obama. As expected, he does better with young voters, even relative to past Democratic nominees. For all of the difficulty Obama had with Hispanic voters against Hillary Clinton, Obama is getting about 62% of Hispanics at the moment– about what Gore got in 2000 and better than the 53% Kerry got in 2004. Moreover, while McCain leads Obama by 6% with men, that’s a much smaller margin than the 11% edge Pres. Bush had over Kerry (though there is currently an 8% undecided vote that has to go somewhere in November).
In short, as with the electoral maps noted here yesterday, the demographic data suggests that the general election starts much the same as the last two presidential elections ended — very close. That does not sound like news, but in light of the generic numbers (high “wrong track” numbers, economic worries, declining GOP voter ID, etc.) and Obama’s historic achievement, maybe it is news.
while McCain leads Obama by 6% with men, that’s a much smaller margin than the 11% edge Pres. Bush had over Kerry
Well, there it is. Men are getting dumber. Do you think it’s a side effect of ED drugs?
Ed Morrisey over at Hot Air did a post yesterday on a CBS poll that was interesting. He noted that the demographics in the poll was something like 25% Republican 41.5% Democrat and 33% Independent. Needless to say it gave Obama a lead of about 6 points. I think this is a problem with a lot of the polls, who they talk to, how they ask the questions etc can create false impressions.
I do think Obama attracts young people, but this group is far less likely to actually vote than the older more involved voters. In 1968 the Democrats had the youth vote too.
But I have come to wonder whether the true purpose of polls is to gauge public opinion, or manipulate it. However, I do have to admit that I have more faith in some polls than others. Such as Gallup and Rasmussen vs CBS or Newsweek.
As expected, [Obama] does better with young voters…
In a way, this gives me the warm fuzzies as it evokes my youthful support of Jimmy Carter. I thought Carter was so cool — it blew me away that he was quoting Bob Dylan and calling Dylan “a friend.” He promised “I’ll never lie to you.” And when he broke precedent and he and Rosylnn stopped the motorcade on inauguration day and walked down Pennsylvania Avenue — I knew we entered the Age of Aquariums.
Later, as unemployment reached almost 8%, inflation 15%, interest rates 20% — as Soviet troops and proxies invaded Ethiopia, Angola, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, etc — as I was told to forget taking the State Department exam because they were only looking for minorities and women…
Very close numbers at this stage? Come November, McCain is going to beat Obama like a rented mule (and let him keep his 40 acres).
As usual, good post Karl.
But I think that this year, these early polls are even less of an indication of what is going to happen in Novemner than they usually are. It might just be wishful thinking on my part, but Obama appears to be growing a pair of clay feet right before our eyes.
Even with the press having their noses stuck firmly in his butt, Obama is starting to look like a car that entered a corner too fast, and is now wildly slewing, trying to regain control.
It’s hard to predict exactly where we are headed, because McCain has already shown himself to be a wuss. Any other candidate would already have Obama painted as a kid playing with Legos who believes that he is ready to be president of ther country.
But O! is so vulnerable on issues that I don’t see how he can keep his moronicity (yeah. I made that word up – I think) under wraps for five + more months. He has already embraced Bush’s policy on Iran – even though he acts as though that policy was originated in his own brilliant mind – and I expect that there is more of this baloney to come. I still can’t get over how he has gone from black to white, all the while insisting that he was just misunderstood when he said he would have unconditional talks with Ahmawhatever.
I live in a very liberal outpost, and honestly can’t find too many people who don’t make fun of Obama. Even my liberal friends seem to think that O! is not a serious candiddate.
We’ll just have to see, though. With the willfully blind MSM happily ensconced in O!’s jockstrap, reality may not intrude on this election.
McCain vs. Obama, nearly dead even. Among reasonable, middle-of-the-road voters (which is almost everyone, usually).
McCain vs. The Obamessiah; well, that’s not even close. There are those (especially the young Nishwashy types) who would still vote BHO even if he were to grow a toothbrush moustache. He’s the perfect leftist-idealist candidate for those too young to remember the Carter years.
(I remember those years; my first Presidential vote, in 1976, I voted for the smile. Regrets, much!)
Obama got no bounce? Well, when one starts as the messiah, bounce is tough to come by. If anything, I expect his contradictory positions on the issues, unsavory associates, and inexperience are going to drag his numbers down.
I’m no McCain fan, but strong on defense, realistic on taxes, and good on judges is the best we’re going to get this year.
– #2 – Have you given that a lot of thought Terrye. I mean because thats a pretty serious charge, that the Left would actually manipulate polls and all, and worse yet that our beloved legacy press would act as outright Liberal cheerleaders, refusing to cover any news story critical of their chosen hero, and instead, painting him as the literal 2nd coming of the messiah.
– But I mean outright poll rigging to push public perceptions and directly influence an election. I don’t know. That sounds really extreme to me. I’d have to think on it awhile.(NOT)
Salt lick – My reaction ( I was just very barely a teenager) to that Pennsylvania Ave. stroll was slightly different. I had a childish enthusiasm for a stiff-broom sweep of Watergate and a some affinity for democratic idealism that you would expect in a youngster, so I did not have any knee jerk reaction.
But when Carter and Ros deliberately dressed simply and got out of the car to walk, my reaction was “uh oh”.
It just didn’t strike me right. I felt suddenly uneasy. I suppose It was a time of pomp and circumstance and a dress occasion, and he seemed to be snubbing ceremony a little too….ostentatiously. He was ostentatiously humble, Something about it made me feel like America was headed for the dispose-all.
Like he expected America should lower its expectations.
“He was ostentatiously humble”
Very nice, Sarah. A perfect encapsulation of that horrid, very small, man. BHO is following in his footsteps but this time I don’t believe they lead into the White House.
Salt lick – My reaction ( I was just very barely a teenager) to that Pennsylvania Ave. stroll was… “uh ohâ€Â.
I was in college. My politics were all about Teh Image — and Hopeyness and Changeyness.
But 2008 is not 1976 (The Bicentennial). Obama has no honorable military service record. Bush is not Nixon/Ford and neither is McCain. And the post-internet MSM no longer plays solo. Obama’s chickens are going to start squawking soon. Get out your popcorn.
Good call there, sarah.
Think you’re really righteous? Think you’re pure in heart?
Well, I know I’m a million times as humble as thou art
I was 15 when Jimmah got out of the limo on Pennsylvania Avenue. I didn’t have much of a reaction to it, but the news pukes covering the inaugural sure did.
It may have been that very day I began to despise the Establishment “News” Media, though it took most of Carter’s presidency for me to realize it.