Today’s warning comes from CQ blogger Taegan Goddard, who reminds us not pay much attention to the exit polls for a number of reasons and recommends Charles Franklin’s final analysis of the primary polling instead.
And while I prefer looking at state polls when possible, my usual spiel about not taking polls too literally gets more support from Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal in a post on the current divergence in national polls. Blumenthal links to further explanations from ABC News Poobah of Polling Gary Langer, whose analysis is good, but would be better if acknowledged that the New York Times/CBS poll has a skewed sample, as it so often does.
(h/t HotAir headlines.)
Comment by Mikey NTH on 5/6 @ 4:20 pm #
Exit polls only tell you what those who want to be polled say; in those places where the pollsters are. On election day only one poll counts – sort of. :)
Comment by happyfeet on 5/6 @ 5:32 pm #
Exit polls give valuable demographic information that’s worthless except for confirming the narrative you’ve established. If it says something different then it’s just a stupid exit poll and you should be very very cautious. I learned this from listening to how teh NPR analyzes them.
Comment by John Ryan on 5/6 @ 5:58 pm #
After the debacle that was the 2006 Federal election the Republicans have a certain distaste for exit polls. Winners like them losers do not
Comment by Karl on 5/6 @ 6:05 pm #
Like the Dems in 2000 and 2004.
Comment by Mikey NTH on 5/6 @ 6:06 pm #
The whole premise of an exit poll is its flaw. If the person exiting doesn’t wish to talk, they can’t be polled. It is as self-selecting as an internet poll. It measures the who extroverted and passionate the polled person is, but it doesn’t give any information on all of the voters in that polling center. If ten percent, or even thirty percent of the voters are polled what good is that? How do you know they aren’t lying? What do the non-polled think?
It is a straw poll with no controls on it. It is worthless except to give television analysts something to blab about as they wait for the real counts to come in. Think ‘Pron Praul’ and internet polling for an idea how useful this actually is.
Comment by LiveFromFortLivingRoom on 5/6 @ 6:15 pm #
After the debacle that was the 2004 Presidential election Democrats have a certain wild eyed conspiracy theory about exit polls. Winners like them losers do not.
Comment by Mikey NTH on 5/6 @ 6:42 pm #
Isn’t that reversed, Fort Living Room? I thought the losers were the ones crying that the exit polls went one way and the actual count the other, so the actual count was to be disregarded for the polls. BECAUSE OF THE DIEBOLD!!!!!111one hundred and eleven!!!!
Comment by Mikey NTH on 5/6 @ 6:43 pm #
Not eleventy, ’cause I’m no hobbit-fancier. Now an elf-maiden….
Comment by LiveFromFortLivingRoom on 5/6 @ 8:14 pm #
Whatever I am 9 beers deep and probably one of the worst commentors on here. Love the website though.
Comment by PCachu on 5/6 @ 10:42 pm #
Just as well, Mikey. Sam would kill you if you tried anything.
Comment by thor on 5/6 @ 11:11 pm #
O!
Comment by The Lost Dog on 5/7 @ 12:47 am #
Exit polls, scmexit polls.
I watched Obama speak tonight nand I have only one thing to say.
“Be afraid. VERY afraid!”
I have never heard an emptier speech than his. I am beginning to understand what I have never been able to – how the fuck did the Nazis come to power in a nation with elections?
This guy is scary, and I think that our academics have finally put their neo-Marxism over the %50 benchmark.
“Hope” and “change” with no mention of how to pull it off except to fuck “the rich”
(Shiver)
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