As voters head for the polls today, the NYT’s Adam Nagourney lays out the basic scenarios and what they might mean for the last leg of the Democratic campaign.
Looking at the final pre-primary polls for Indiana and North Carolina, the spread seems to based largely on the number of undecided voters (fewer tends to benefit Hillary Clinton) and in North Carolina the projected number of black voters in each sample (more tends to help Barack Obama). As 40% of the early voters in NC were black, and the number of undecided voters will be zero, I would not be surprised if the polls showing both races tightening do not pan out, with the result that Clinton does toward the top of her range in Indiana, while Obama does toward the top end of his range (or possibly better if the black vote holds closer to that 40%) in North Carolina. That is not a prediction so much as a way for people watching election coverage tonight to read the tea leaves in the inevitable exit polls.
I thought about breaking down the delegate counts, but the delegate math will almost certainly continue to favor Obama, while Clinton will be looking at the popular vote.
Those last points naturally lead to the next, which is that Clinton’s continuation of her Quixotic quest rests as much or more on the spin put on tonight’s results by the campaigns and the media. The Clintonites were already trying to set expectations by pointing out that a “leaked” Obama campaign spreadsheet once projected that Obama would win both states by about six or seven points.  If Clinton comes close in NC, the doubts about Obama will continue to linger. Conversely, if Obama wins IN (a slightly higher bar, because that race has always been closer) Clinton’s media momentum likely comes to an abrupt halt.
But what if tonight’s results come out pretty much as expected? That could be the most intriguing scenario, in its own way. Yesterday, I set out the data showing that Obama has not been under siege so far as the coverage from the broadcast nets and FNC evening news has gone. Though I have not seen any data directly on point, it seems likely that there has been more coverage of Obama’s problems with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his own comments about small town Americans clinging to God and guns on the cable nets.ÂÂ
It is the cable nets that will do most of the initial election night coverage, which may in turn influence the next-day coverage across all media. CNN’s decision to go “Wright-free” yesterday, for example, might suggest that status quo results would push them even further to the Obama-friendly interpretation of the outcome. Alternatively, absent a dramatic storyline, cable nets might need to fill their time discussing the demographics of the exit poll results (as the WaPo’s Dan Balz thinks Democratic and GOP strategists will be doing).  Discussions of topics like whether Obama did better with working-class white voters in IN or NC than he did in PA might be less Obama-friendly, depending on how those numbers come out.
Comment by JD on 5/6 @ 6:53 am #
I puked a lot in the back of my mouth when I voted for Hillary this morning.
Comment by sashal on 5/6 @ 7:17 am #
If HC will manage to get a nomination it will be extremely dissappointing. Shameless panderer and liar.
At least she will obliterate OPEC.
Nothing better to do with your life, JD? Well at least you did not choke on your anti-liberal bile, that is a good thing my friend…
Comment by nishizonoshinji on 5/6 @ 8:15 am #
as for CNN…. they are likely just going for viewers….all-wright-alla-time only works for u guyz.
the rest of us are getting wright fatigue.
;)
Comment by nishizonoshinji on 5/6 @ 8:23 am #
i actually think the globalwarming-junkscience-becomes-economic-policy is starting to get more play, at least at NRO and Samizdata.
wright is getting boring…you say the same things over and over and over and over, Karl.
tedious.
Comment by JD on 5/6 @ 8:29 am #
nishidiot – You are free to go wherever you wish.
Sashal – just casting a vote in the best interests of my country.
Comment by Spies, Brigands, and Pirates on 5/6 @ 8:31 am #
wright is getting boring
Yeah, well, not everyone is an illiterate, lying, spoiled child with the attention span of a fruit fly.
Sorry about that.
Comment by Spies, Brigands, and Pirates on 5/6 @ 8:32 am #
JD: thanks for taking one for the team.
Comment by sashal on 5/6 @ 8:34 am #
making a mockery of American democracy and sabotaging the other party?
Comment by Spies, Brigands, and Pirates on 5/6 @ 8:38 am #
making a mockery of American democracy and sabotaging the other party?
How is voting for the candidate you’d rather see in office “making a mockery of American democracy”?
The Republican primaries are over (effectively). Why shouldn’t JD vote for his preferred candidate in the election that still matters?
Hint: there’s nothing in the Constitution about not voting in the primary of the other party. Hint #2: in fact, the Constitution doesn’t mention parties of any kind.
Comment by nishizonoshinji on 5/6 @ 8:41 am #
JD, both HRC and O are beating mccain in the tracking polls right now.
And i guaran-damn-tee that both dems will be beating mccain by more come the 15th when mccain releases his med records and the electorate is reminded of how OLD he is.
i must assume that u actually think HRC would be the better president.
Comment by JD on 5/6 @ 8:48 am #
sashal – How is it making a mockery of Democracy to cast a vote against a particular candidate that you feel strongly against? Since we have open primaries, and McCain has already been selected, I chose to use my vote in an effort to help the Dems nominate the lesser of 2 destructive candidates.
nishitiot – Assuming is not a good thing for you to do. I could not give a flying fuck what tracking polls say. Shocka that Hillary and Baracky are ahead given the near constant fellating coverage of their groundbreaking primary. But, to your point about HRC being a better President, yes, I would agree, if the only choice was her or Baracky.
Comment by Spies, Brigands, and Pirates on 5/6 @ 8:50 am #
But, to your point about HRC being a better President, yes, I would agree, if the only choice was her or Baracky.
Me, too. And, like you, it makes me throw up in my mouth.
Comment by Karl on 5/6 @ 9:05 am #
Wright is site traffic gold
lulz
Comment by happyfeet on 5/6 @ 9:05 am #
nishi, that’s a lot racist, even if not on purpose. CNN was a big part of spreading the propaganda that Wright was a mainstream exponent of a black church white America just didn’t understand. It’s an important thing to correct the record. People need to understand that Wright is a freak and that black churches aren’t all hatey Marxist freakshows.
Comment by sashal on 5/6 @ 9:27 am #
I understand your thinking , JD.
One has to be really , really involved in partisan politics to vote for the candidate one dislikes,
you were not planning to vote for HC in general, weren’t you?
I don’t know, i would never do it myself, so I could be a bad judge on that issue….
Comment by JD on 5/6 @ 9:30 am #
Sashal – I do not currently plan on voting for Hillary in the general, but that has no bearing on whether or not I think she is a better potential President than Baracky. FWIW, the polls were packed at 6:30 AM where I vote. But, I am a TWP.
Comment by Education Guy on 5/6 @ 9:37 am #
I dislike all of the candidates this year sashal, does that mean I shouldn’t vote?
JD – If HRC actually wins the WH we are going to need to set up a support group for those of us who are sorry and didn’t really mean it.
Comment by candace on 5/6 @ 9:46 am #
hey ya bums! Wright is not a freak, you non-intellectual types are freaks; you must never pick up a book…
Comment by Slartibartfast on 5/6 @ 9:52 am #
“Intellectual” candace of the shift-key spurious malfunction opens with “hey ya bums!”
Makes me want to self-profess intellectualism right here and now.
Comment by sashal on 5/6 @ 9:59 am #
I see, you guys’ missing Clintons in WH.
I don’t.
I think Obama or McCain will be innumerably greater presidents .
At least they will be more honest with us voters, and they may actually achieve something good for the country.
And don’t believe the myth about Obama’s Marxism.
From all his speeches and programs I can tell that he is more pragmatic then the pandering , lying , sniper courageous, gas-tax magician blyad’
Comment by candace on 5/6 @ 10:03 am #
dont even need no punctuation for you freaks eitha!
Comment by candace on 5/6 @ 10:04 am #
i have 2 laugh at you bums/freaks to keep from crying…or mutilating you…
signed,
a proud victim
Comment by Slartibartfast on 5/6 @ 10:11 am #
Perhaps an alpha victim?
Comment by candace on 5/6 @ 10:17 am #
hee-hee, slartibart!
Comment by Education Guy on 5/6 @ 10:25 am #
I think Obama or McCain will be innumerably greater presidents .
At least they will be more honest with us voters, and they may actually achieve something good for the country.
They may be more honest than Hillary, but that is a low bar to set and it may not even be true. Obama’s whole campaign promises of bringing people together in a non partisan spirit is a pipe dream, and having been involved in politics as he has, he must know it. I wouldn’t call that honest. McCain, while perhaps meaning well, is far too willing to pay the price of his political experimentation with my liberty.
I worry most that what they think will be for the “good of the country” is really just code word for “sucks for your individual liberty”. Hillary just sucks period, but on the plus side she has very little hope of actually securing the nomination.
Comment by Karl on 5/6 @ 10:34 am #
I look forward to the era of Hope and Change, when people like candace will feel empowered to mutilate those who disagree with her.
Comment by Slartibartfast on 5/6 @ 10:45 am #
I don’t disagree with candace; she hasn’t actually said anything, yet.
Oh, sure: quibble over “bums”. I am gainfully employed as an engineer, but that’s MIC kind of work, which arguably is bumming. So, I’m not going to directly disagree with her. I can laugh at her folksy-intellectual routine, though, can’t I?
Comment by Education Guy on 5/6 @ 11:47 am #
laugh now, get mutilated later.
Comment by Slartibartfast on 5/6 @ 12:31 pm #
MUTILATE ME NOW! MUTILATE ME NOW!
Comment by nishizonoshinji on 5/6 @ 2:19 pm #
feets im worse than a racist, dontcha knoe?
ima IQist that believes in the bell curve.
Comment by guinsPen on 5/6 @ 5:11 pm #
@ #18
Eat any good books lately?
Comment by happyfeet on 5/6 @ 7:06 pm #
nonono. Not you, CNN.
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