TNR’s John Judis, while buying into the Frankian false consciousness thesis debunked earlier today, has some decent explanation of why – even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters “clinging” to guns, religion, and prejudice, Obama looked vulnerable in the heartland states, particularly among white working class voters.ÂÂ
In particular, Judis notes that historically, Democrats have been able to win over these voters in campaigns where there was: (1) an “Unacceptable Republican,” seen as extremist or corrupt; (2) an “Acceptable Democrat,” seen as sufficiently moderate on guns, abortion, and religion; or (3) an “Empathetic Democrat” with whom voters identify directly (a la Bill Clinton) or as a parental figure (a la FDR).ÂÂ
Judis then applies the analysis to the current cycle, noting that John McCain is not an Unaccepatble Republican and that neither Obama nor Hillary Clinton is moderate on social issues:
That leaves the possibility that these voters will see the Democratic candidate as either “one of them,” or as a father or mother figure who understands their plight. Both candidates clearly have problems on these scores, but Obama’s may be even more severe than Clinton’s. As an African American, he has one strike against him, as has become apparent even in the Democratic primary exit polls. He has tried to appear above race, but he will continually be reminded of his ties to Jeremiah Wright (and his not wearing a flag on his lapel, and his wife’s statements about not being “proud” of America) during a general election.
Obama comes from a modest background and has tried to appeal as a candidate of both Harvard Law School and Chicago’s Back-of-the-Yards, where he organized laid-off steel workers, but he hasn’t been able to pull it off. His manner, his tenor, and his diction are Harvard Law, and when he starts dropping his ‘g’s,” he sounds strained. And Obama is too young, and lacks the stature, to appear as a Franklin Roosevelt-style father figure.
Pundits more in the tank for Obama, like the WaPo’s Eugene Robinson, rail against the notion that Obama may suffer from not being seen as a “regular guy,” particularly when Clinton is so faux as a “regular gal.” Perhaps perception should not be reality in politics, but Robinson would have a better chance of changing the orbit of the earth than in changing that iron law of politics.
Moreover, Robinson’s complaint ignores the fact that Obama has worked hard to shape his own image, in no small part due to the concerns Judis raises. He has made all sorts of faith-based appeals to voters and made faith a centerpiece of his campaign. He has positioned himself as a post-racial candidate, a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views, in order to play the Unifier who will usher in an era of bipartisan cooperation and reduce the influence of money and special interests (the entire history of politics to the contrary). Yet the company he keeps and the statements he now makes stand in stark contrast to that carefully cultivated image.
For all of his political skills, Obama forgot one of the most basic tactics in politics: setting expectations. He allowed his candidacy to be cast in messianic terms. But he is not a Savior. Rather, he is a Senator — one much like the left-wing Senator whom the Democrats nominated last time around. That Obama said and did so little to head off the inevitable disappointment may be as telling as what he has said to land himself in the current controversy.
Comment by Dan Collins on 4/15 @ 12:24 pm #
I don’t think he buys into the Frankian false consciousness thing:
He says that Obama appears to.
Comment by N. O'Brain on 4/15 @ 12:35 pm #
“Obama comes from a modest background and has tried to appeal as a candidate of both Harvard Law School and Chicago’s Back-of-the-Yards, where he organized laid-off steel workers…”
Organized as what? For what? To do what?
Comment by Dan Collins on 4/15 @ 12:38 pm #
“wish bipartisan cooperation”?
Can’t be a typo for Jewish, I don’t think.
Comment by Karl on 4/15 @ 1:22 pm #
Alright, I’ll take out that “wish,” but don’t blame me if it blows up the whole site.
Comment by Pixy Misa on 4/15 @ 6:25 pm #
Hi everyone. Sorry about the downtime – we had a drive failure in the server last night, and I had to do a bit of fiddling around to get things working again.
Fortunately we didn’t lose any data, but we may have a hiccup or two over the next day or so as I tidy thins up.
Comment by Dan Collins on 4/15 @ 6:27 pm #
Thanks for the update and the hard work, Pixy.
Comment by Karl on 4/15 @ 6:30 pm #
Yep, thanks Pixy!
Comment by McGehee on 4/15 @ 6:55 pm #
I wondered why PW and the mu.nu and mee.nu domains were down. All this time I thought PW was hosted in the good old U.S. of A., and the .nu domains were all hosted in… uh… Nu… Jersey…?
Anyway, my whole concept of the internet has been shaken. I need to go lie down.
Comment by DW on 4/15 @ 7:06 pm #
sorry edited again
Comment by DW on 4/15 @ 7:07 pm #
your not very good at it
Comment by McGehee on 4/15 @ 7:09 pm #
Jeff, I think one of your Wiki hackers is back.
Comment by McGehee on 4/15 @ 7:10 pm #
…except I don’t see a recent edit. Never mind.
Comment by Scape-goat Trainee on 4/15 @ 7:57 pm #
“Organized as what? For what? To do what?”
I think it was to fight against ‘The Man”.
Comment by The Sanity Inspector on 4/15 @ 8:08 pm #
Thanks Pixy.
As for diction, I’ve developed a perverse longing to hear Hillary campaign in the South some more, so I can disgust myself afresh with the accent she adopts for those audiences. “Amurricans are TAARRRD of politics as usual!…”
Comment by thor on 4/16 @ 1:40 am #
Ha. Ha. Obama is so punking you, KK. Your fu is just too assumptive and weak. According to you Obama was done after the first of the 1000’s of “Goddman America” sound-bites was aired. But he wasn’t, was he? Just like ‘Zilla marching through Tokyo, Obama marches on to DC, and no matter how much you practice the crane, the snake, the monkey and no matter how many Tsingtaos you wash your projections down with, Obama-son keeps smashing cars and tearing down rural telephone lines on his way to the Republican Thunderdome.
Yeah, KK, you’re the sharp one. Mark it down, again, I ‘m afraid. Karl’s radial projections of how Obama is perceived are wrong again. Out of touch, gripping his gun, clinging to his arcane faith, the hack lives a hard life.
Telling, telling is your score card. The man is too big. The man is too strong. Your fu too weak.
O!
Comment by Karl on 4/16 @ 1:53 am #
thor,
I’m breaking my habit of ignoring you to note that you are increasingly soundng like nishi.
BTW: “According to you Obama was done after the first of the 1000’s of “Goddman America†sound-bites was aired.”
Link?
Comment by MC on 4/16 @ 2:09 am #
Karl spells de-noue-ment!
Comment by MC on 4/16 @ 2:12 am #
I been trying to keep Nishi occupied. Maybe she tired.
Comment by thor on 4/16 @ 2:45 am #
KK, isn’t/wasn’t your initial mistake that you projected your fears, prejudices and knee-jerk reactions onto Barack Obama instead of fully understanding who Barack Obama actually is?
Now you’re trying to project a blob of Nishi slime on me? It just doesn’t work that way. Forced associations are problematic for many reasons not withstanding most times they’re so, so intellectually dishonest. And I come here, sans malice in my heart, to show you the error of your ways. I call it education through continued humiliation.
You’re losing badly against a reality you’ve totally misread. Reality is a bitter biter.
N!
ishi!
Comment by thor on 4/16 @ 3:15 am #
PS. Note the way the honorable Sen. John McCain addressed questions concerning Barack Obama during his interview with Chris Matthews. McCain gave Barack his props while suggesting himself as the better candidate. “People do want change”, McCain agreed thoughtfully. Part of that change is they’ve had enough of the “crypto-Marxist” bullshit smear jobbing from the likes of – cough, cough – you.
I’m probably giving McCain my vote, but I’m proud to call Barack Obama an American. Suck on that.
Comment by Cowboy on 4/16 @ 3:28 am #
thor:
I’m pretty sure that McCain is “giving Barack his props” and laying low because he’d rather Hillary tear into him, and vice versa, before he has to.
Comment by alppuccino on 4/16 @ 3:36 am #
OT. Cowboy, I’ve got a lunch in Ft. Wayne today. Jealous? I’m coming from Ohio. I can never remember if Frank Burns’ hometown is in the same time zone as Klinger’s hometown. Help.
Comment by thor on 4/16 @ 3:46 am #
Cowboy, if Hillary Clinton had boobs on her back I still wouldn’t slow dance with her. I’d vote for Karl twice before I voted for Hilldabitch.
Comment by alppuccino on 4/16 @ 4:51 am #
never mind
Comment by M. Simon on 4/16 @ 5:02 am #
You gotta read this one by Jamal. He just rips into Obama the Race Hustler. A taste:
In the same speech in which Barry0-the-Big-Zer0 attacks one part of America, he defends another. Hussein0s description of White Rural American was an attack on their irrationality, gun slinging, and xenophobia. Hussein0’s reference to black America (slavery) was no doubt a reference to Wright. Rather than denouncing Wrights xenophobia and hysterical irrationality, The Faker excuses it with the word Slavery.
While chastising one group for being xenophobic, he excused another for being equally so. The magic difference – skin color- Keep It Simple Fools. Snoop is in da House.
This isn’t the first instance of Barry’s lack of even the the most rudimentary grasp on fairness. In fact, we don’t stop seeing it. A Republican just called Obama a “boy†and he is groveling for pardons and the Obama camp is upset. When Obama’s surrogates called Clinton a Whore, what did Obama’s boys do?
Trackback by Its In His Kiss Unabridged on 4/20 @ 3:01 am #
Its In His Kiss Unabridged
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