At RCP, Thomas Edsall surveys a range of experts (though mostly left of center) as to whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is more electable (along with related questions). Most offer variations on some of the themes I have blogged here the past few weeks, e.g., which demographics might switch to John McCain, Obama’s strength in Mountain and Western states, Obama as a higher-risk, higher-reward candidate, etc. It is nevertheless interesting to see the left-liberal formulation of those themes summarized in a single column (along with the always quotable GOP media consultant Alex Castellanos).
Also at RCP, Jay Cost has the correct answer to the question, which is that these arguments about winners of battleground states or strength with Independents “are underdetermined, which is another way of saying that we just don’t know either way.” But he also drives another nail in the coffin of the argument that the relatively high turnout in the Democratic primaries is evidence of an enthusiasm gap that advantages the Democrats, while acknowledging that enthusiasm may matter in fundraising. As usual for Cost, there is a cool chart, so RTWT.
They both really suck a lot except for the media being all benevolent to them. Definitely would be a good time for some leadership among Congressional Republicans in establishing some principles that the party could run on even before having fun with these Dem losers’ negatives.
I guess that is what 35 years of experience get you
I was just kidding about the leadership, just thought you might could use a giggle.
I laughed. And cried.
Of the three leaders, despite my dislike of him, Senator McCain has the broadest appeal. I expect him to win now that Senator Clinton is pushing the system into an ugly clash of political machines (Clinton and Chicago) at the upcoming DNC and a brokered nomination. That plus the almost certain violence and grotesque spectacle of protests at the DNC by angry truthers, Kos Kidz, anarchists, and the rest and I think most of the voters will be so repelled they will turn to McCain. And let’s be honest, you won’t find a single right leaning person who’ll vote for either Democratic candidate, but you probably can find a lot of left leaning people who could vote for McCain.
Great picture at the link at 2.
The problem with the enthusiasm gap in fund-raising with regard to the democrats versus the Republicans is that it reflects a higher level of candidate entusiasm during the primaries for the Democrats. That enthusiasm may be exhausted towards the end of the season, or may not be transferrable once the Democrats finally settle on a candidate. By the time that happens there may be so much bitter-blood that it can’t be purged in time for a cash-infusion for the general campaign.
John McCain seems to be working his way, slowly, past the same bitter-blood part in the Republican party at an early stage and may be able to recharge the coffers earlier for the general fight. I guess we will see when September rolls around.
N.B.: I have not yet read the article.