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Dems 2008: Right and Left looks down the trail [Karl]

RCP conveniently reprints the transcript of Dark Lord Karl Rove’s preview of the next week or two of the Democratic campaign from Hannity & Colmes.  At OpenLeft, Chris Bowers gives a similar rundown, favoring Sen. Barack Obama across the board in this weekend’s contests — caucuses in Maine, Washington state and Nebraska, plus the Louisiana primary.  Indeed, Obama is also favored the so-called “Potomac primary” next Tuesday, comprised of Virginia, DC, and Maryland.  Rove seemed to think that Sen. Hillary Clinton could have a shot in Virginia, but the current polling says otherwise.

Nevertheless, Rove correctly notes that the proportional allocation of delegates also keeps Clinton from falling too far behind.  He also notes that despite the Clinton campaign’s recently-rumored financial woes, she should be able to remain financially competitive.  I would add that Clinton will likely avoid spending much on some of the obvious Obama-favored contests and that the Clintons can self-fund if necessary.

The conventional wisdom is that Clinton is poised to do better in Texas and Ohio on March 4.  The former currently looks like Duncan Donuts Dems over latte liberals, while the latter features Hillary’s Hispanic firewall.  The size and diversity of Texas once again brings organization in as a factor — Clinton is expected to focus on Hispanics in South Texas and El Paso, along with women, while Obama will work to maximize black turnout in the cities.

Three mild caveats are in order.  First, a string of nominal Clinton losses could create the perception of negative momentum.  Second, the de facto end of the GOP contest may free up independents to vote Obama in both Ohio and Texas (among other states with open primaries).  Third, one of the few places Obama dented the firewall on Super-Duper Tuesday was in Arizona; there might be some lesson Obama could learn and apply in the Lone Star state.  Obama is apparently setting up his Texas HQ in Austin and has a veteran of south Texas politics directing the effort, so he may think he did learn something.

Peering even further down the trail, Chis Bowers frets about the six-week interval between Mississippi on March 11 and Pennsylvania on April 22 — fearing a media opening for McCain and stories about divided Dems.  The current data does not suggest that the donks will have a nominee by then, however, so the left-liberals will have to live with it.  Indeed, the uncommitted super-delegates (to the extent that any can be said to be “committed”) who may ultimately decide the race will likely resist pressure to endorse until 2004 swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania are decided.

3 Replies to “Dems 2008: Right and Left looks down the trail [Karl]”

  1. happyfeet says:

    Jim Webb I don’t think has endorsed, but this sort of thing usually doesn;t just come from nowheres.

    With the Feb. 12 Democratic primary in Virginia now on the horizon, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, an early supporter of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, told the News-Press in Richmond last week that he felt Obama, if nominated, “would be well served” by selecting Virginia’s junior U.S. Sen. Jim Webb as his running mate.

    That kind of suggests to me that Obama is pretty definitely favored in Virginia.

  2. J. O. Worlde says:

    Second, the de facto end of the GOP contest may free up independents to vote Obama in both Ohio and Texas (among other states with open primaries).

    Over? Not hardly. God Himself has called Governor Huckabee to be our next President. Brother Max told me so himself, when he swung by the quad the other day.

  3. Toniqua says:

    Obama is getting more and more favored by many. Although the possibility that he will be the official Dems nominee is still unclear. Let’s see in the coming days.

Comments are closed.