At the American Spectator, Jennifer Rubin thought it was a big deal that a new SurveyUSA poll from California showed McCain at 41% to 17% for Romney, Rudy at 13% and Huckabee at 10%. Yet she downgraded it in an update because it was a poll of the “Bay Area only.” At NRO’s Corner, Rich Lowry joked that “McCain is now poised to sweep to victory in Nancy Pelosi’s district!”
Rubin is going to want to kick herself when she learns she had it right the first time. The poll is not a joke, and potentially a very big deal.
In a shocking departure from the media’s general aversion to covering the nuts and bolts of the campaign, Michael R. Blood writes for the Associated Press:
In a twist on political logic, heavily Democratic patches in California are being fiercely contested by some Republican presidential candidates because of a change in state election rules.
For the first time in a contested race, the California GOP will distribute delegates based on the winner in each of the state’s congressional districts, rather than to the candidate who piles up the most votes statewide.
***
“It changes the whole formula,” said Republican pollster Steve Kinney, who is backing Arizona Sen. John McCain. “You can end up with far less votes overall and have most of the delegates.”
Blood reports that McCain has just begun to organize a volunteer campaign in California, while Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney have had the money to support a significant grass-roots effort. But I wonder whether Giuliani has been able to maintain his organization, given his current financial woes. ÂÂ
Blood also reports that one juicy target is — you guessed it — the San Francisco district of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, where fewer than one in ten voters is registered as a Republican. Accordngly, while Rich Lowry laughs, I would not be surprised if that SurveyUSA poll raised eyebrows at McCain HQ.
P.S. I know McCain was a little occupied in Vietnam back in the day, so I have a tip for him.
Pingback by Hot Air » Blog Archive » Rudy: Florida is a must-win an important win on 1/23 @ 9:33 am #
[...] Read Karl’s latest post too about that Survey USA poll showing Maverick up by 24 in California’s bay area. Significant? Actually, yeah. [...]
Comment by McGehee on 1/23 @ 1:14 pm #
In the good old days, the California primary might as well have been held after the conventions, for all the difference it made. Has that changed?
Comment by Big Bang (pumping you up.) on 1/24 @ 1:20 am #
- Yeh. Ever since the founding of the Union of Soviet Frisco was formalized.
- The Dems are afraid of Rudi. They think McCain is the most beatable of the Reps. The Marxist press, and Left based Pollsters, are floating the usual upside down percentages bullshit, hoping to deflate late voters. A low turnout always aids a low count sentimental favorite. Same tactic they employed with the 2004 PEW exit fiasco.
- Didn’t work then, isn’t going to work now. A very large portion of the Florida vote is absentee ballot. Someone at the DNC didn’t get the memo.
Comment by Karl on 1/24 @ 1:30 am #
McGehee,
Yes, perhaps even moreso for the Dems, where Obama’s showing will be pivotal, imho.
Comment by McGehee on 1/24 @ 3:17 am #
WhoTF’s bright idea was it to let California have anything to say about either party’s nominations?
Dagnabbit!
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