Stories on the GOP’s dead heat in South Carolina vastly understate the case.  As Charles Franklin noted yesterday at Pollster.com:

One big warning here. South Carolina has shown suprising numbers of undecided. The Fox poll today, for example, has an unbelievable 19% undecided. That is HUGE. And, if you add up the trend estimates for the four top candidates here, you get… 81% leaving the same 19% unallocated. In Fox’s poll, less than 10% pick Paul, Giuliani or Hunter combined, so there is a gigantic amount of room for those last minute deciders to break one way or the other.

With a history of under-the-radar negative campaigning in the state, and evidence of the same this year, it would be surprising if we don’t see some important shifts here at the end.

Throw in a near-certain forecast of snow and sleet and you have the political equivalent of the “mystery meat” occasionally served in college dormatory cafeterias.

With that CYA disclaimer in place, one of the more interesting facets of the South Carolina primary has been Mitt Romney’s decision to pull out in favor of the Nevada caucus, which may be winnable for Romney, but is generally considered less influential on the overall race than South Carolina and which does not even bind the delegates ultimately selected.

Romney’s pull-out in SC was a huge gamble.  As the mysterious Richilieu notes:

First, it means Romney must now win Nevada. He is favored there – he’s well organized and southern Nevada has a large LDS population – but you never know for sure in a caucus. Second, by pulling back in South Carolina, it is likely a chunk of the regular Republicans who make up Romney’s vote will move to John McCain, potentially helping McCain defeat the bigger SC threat of Mike Huckabee. Since McCain is Romney’s most serious rival for the nomination, a McCain win in South Carolina is bad news for Romney in the big picture. One can argue that a strategy of playing hard in South Carolina up to the end and trying to pull McCain down into second place to a victorious Huckabee would have been a better Romney move… Finally, the Romney decision to pull back in South Carolina could result in Romney dropping to fourth place and being edged out by Fred Thompson. Such a weak Romney result in South Carolina would stoke media speculation that Romney cannot attract votes in the South. That’s a toxic label no GOP candidate wants. (Emphasis added.)

That analysis, however, presupposes that Romney’s pull-out benefits McCain.  There is some data to support that view.  A recent national Pew Poll shows that Romney is viewed much more favorably by McCain voters thatn Huckabee voters.  Yet the same poll has a counter-current:

Mitt Romney’s best ratings come from conservative Republican voters who are not white evangelicals; about two-thirds in this group (66%) offer a positive view of him. On the other hand, just over half (51%) of white evangelical conservatives rate him favorably, while three-in-ten have an unfavorable view.

Romney is even less popular among moderate and liberal Republican voters; fewer than half in that group (43%) have a positive opinion of the former Massachusetts governor, and nearly as many have a negative opinion (39%).

The profile of the Romney voter — at least nationally — is that of the NotHuckabee-NotMcCain voter.  There has been word on the grapevine that Fred Thompson is the most likely “second choice” candidate.  The latest polling is split on that subject, with ARG seeming to show Romney’s voters headed to Fred and Huck, while Zogby tended to show little movement anywhere.  Incidentally, while no one can be sure, I suspect that bad weather will advantage Huck, whose evangelical base will likely be more zealous in getting themselves to the polls, as they did in Iowa.  Morever, we cannot rule out the possibility that Romney had internal polling data supporting his gamble.

Accordingly, while the actual tally seems quite uncertain even now, there is a good chance Romney’s bet will pay off.  The main downside — that a third-place or worse showing in SC is “the political electric chair” — is not as true for Romney and his enormous checkbook as it would be for the rest of the field.  Tactically, stopping McCain may prove more valuable to Mitt.  There is a medium-term risk of giving Huckabee momentum heading into Florida and Super-Duper Tuesday, but Romney likely knows he was not going to get Huckabee voters in any event.

One final note on the fate of Fred Thompson.  Barring an upset, South Carolina will likely be his final stand.  Given that my election coverage has consistently faulted others for focusing on horse race polls and under-covered the ground game, I must note Mark Steyn’s post on the atrocious lack of organization in Thompson’s campaign generally.  Political junkies will also recall the turmoil and staff turnover that wracked his camp over the summer, even before he officially announced.  That turmoil was probably why he did not announce earlier and allowed much of the buzz about Thompson to die out.  Even if Fred somehow pulls out a win in South Carolina, his candidacy is an example of how deadly a lack of organization can be for a presidential candidate.