In the wake of Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) endorsing Sen. Barack Obama, Josh Marshall writes:
Endorsements don’t usually count for much. But if they’re big enough and come at critical moments they can count for a lot. And this string of endorsements Obama has picked up since his narrow defeat in New Hampshire four days ago is, I believe, a major story that has not gotten the attention it deserves.
Marshall then proceeds to miss the importance of the endorsements, viewing them in terms of timing and momentum. The real importance of these endorsements, particularly in the case of McCaskill and Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), are the contacts and organizational aid they bring to Obama in two Super-Tuesday states. They all add to Obama’s superdelegate count. That several come from Red or Purple states is important not because they reflect Obama’s purported bipartisan appeal (as Marshall posits), but because the support of key Democrats in those states is crucial in a race that is turning on which candidate captures the “Mondale coalition” of traditional Democrats in a given state.
It may even be worrisome to the Clinton camp that John Edwards is signaling his disapproval of Clinton and pride in the Obama campaign, even as his own slides toward oblivion. Despite her narrow win in NH, Clinton is still largely pursuing the delegate strategy laid out at RCP by Jay Cost. If the campaign remains close, the relatively small number of delegates Edwards won could hold the balance. Not that Clinton should be surprised by this development. As I noted before the Iowa caucuses:
The central dynamic of the Democratic presidential nomination has been known for years. It is a referendum on Sen. Hillary Clinton. It is a race between Clinton and NotClinton. Thus, the only real issue in the campaign would be whether NotClinton could reach critical mass to defeat Clinton.
Edwards knew he was running as NotClinton. Clinton would have to be a fool to not know it, too — and she is no fool.
(h/t Memeorandum.)
So, has Arlen Specter (Rino-PA) endorsed Hillary yet?
Karl, in case it has not been said lately, your coverage of the primaries is excellent.
the relatively small number of delegates Edwards won etc…
Is this to say that the possible closeness of the Hillary/Obama thing gives Edwards incentive to stay in as long as possible? For real… I’m not sure cause I don’t know how he thinks at all, and I imagine money is probably the primary consideration.
IMHO Edwards is hanging in there to vie as VP to Obama’s Pres. I don’t believe the Clinton machine – now ratcheting up to go even dirtier on Barry – is going to offer the VP slot to Barry if they win. Edwards may be hoping to pick up enough delegates to do a little wheeling and dealing to seal Obama’s nomination and get himself on the ticket again.
I agree Edwards and Clinton don’t have a future together, but he’s definitely the kind of testosteronically-challenged kind of guy she’d be comfortable with. Wesley has pretty hair too though.
Jeff aka Alcyoneus,
Thanks. Others have mentioned it, but it’s always nice to hear nice things.
“Is this to say that the possible closeness of the Hillary/Obama thing gives Edwards incentive to stay in as long as possible?”
I think it is a definite possibility that a full bore Clinton assault could wind up doing irreparable damage to her and Obama both, leaving the door open for Edwards. Even if he can’t get the nomination himself, he would still have considerable clout in the selection process.
There once were two cats of Kilkenny
Each thought there was one cat too many
So they fought and they fit
And they scratched And they bit
Till excepting their nails
And the tips of their tails
Instead of two cats, there weren’t any!
Regards,
Ric
If Edwards doesn’t come in at least second in South Carolina, he’s toast.
Edwards’ numbers up to this point are more than I think he deserves, which leads me to my next point: I can’t stand Shrillary and everything Clinton, but there are many people out there who do. Her eyes-welling-with-tears trick was another surprise device she used successfully to get the bully boys off her. I imagine she has other tricks up her pantsuits. Edwards’ game was to divide America. Obama’s is hope. How dare either of these get in the way of royal Clintons.
[…] is probably true. As I have previously noted, Edwards had to know almost from the outset that he was running to be NotClinton. […]