The Grey Lady seems to think the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran — which contains more dovish assessments than the 2005 NIE — is evidence of our new and improved intelligence community:
Government officials who have read both estimates said the 2005 report was filled with analysis based on somewhat murky knowledge of Iran’s capabilities and the goals of its leaders. They said the new intelligence estimate contained very specific information to back up unusually confident conclusions about the state of Iran’s weapons program.
***
Over the past year, officials have put into place rigorous new procedures for analyzing conclusions about difficult intelligence targets like Iran, North Korea, global terrorism and China.
The story is similar in tone to a story the NYT did after the CIA failed to notice that India had a nuclear bomb:
Many insiders say there are concrete signs that the tide has begun to turn under Mr. Tenet. They credit him with bringing back Jack Downing, a cold war legend, who helped rebuild the agency’s spy service before going back into retirement last year, and winning budget increases that have enabled the C.I.A. to begin recruiting a new generation of case officers. Some closed stations in Africa have been reopened, aiding in the agency’s increasingly successful penetrations of terrorist groups. And senior officials say the agency’s risk-taking spirit is beginning to return.
That story was published on September 10, 2000. But it could just as easily have been published on Groundhog Day.
Update: The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency is taking a more cautious approach in drawing conclusions about Iran’s nuclear program:
“To be frank, we are more skeptical,†a senior official close to the agency said. “We don’t buy the American analysis 100 percent. We are not that generous with Iran.â€Â
The official called the American assertion that Iran had “halted†its weapons program in 2003 “somewhat surprising.â€Â
Apparently, not everyone at the IAEA is as dovish as its boss, Mohamed ElBaradei. Or the US intelligence community.
Comment by JD on 12/4 @ 11:55 pm #
I would go with an “honor the threat” kind of position on this one. Iran’s stated intentions and actions are more than sufficient for us to continue to deal with them in an aggressive manner.
Comment by Karl on 12/4 @ 11:58 pm #
Yesterday, at my regular gig, I noted:
Comment by JD on 12/5 @ 12:00 am #
“international pressure” – They flipped Europe the bird !
Are we to believe that despite the fact that they were giving the world the bird, in reality, they were shutting their program down? That makes absolutely no sense at all.
Comment by JD on 12/5 @ 12:01 am #
Karl – Our firm stance in the Middle East had nothing to do with Libya finally backing away either. Nothing, I tell you.
Comment by geoffb on 12/5 @ 12:41 am #
In the NIE they describe their conclusions as “High”, “Moderate” and “Low Confidence”.
I believe “High Confidence” means we tossed a coin twice and it came up heads both times, “Moderate” is one head and one tail, while “Low Confidence” is two tails. Of course if the result doesn’t fit the prevailing BDS then just call a mulligan and try again until you get the result you wanted in the first place. Every year rinse and repeat.
Comment by JD on 12/5 @ 1:02 am #
Why is it that we are to believe the High Confidence conclusion in this one, which is the exact opposite of the High Confidence conclusion in the last one?
Comment by Karl on 12/5 @ 2:31 am #
I think Bill Clinton would explain that it depends on the meaning of the word “high.”
Comment by B Moe on 12/5 @ 7:10 am #
I believe the exact wording in the report was “plausible but unlikely”. Does that sound like a high level of confidence? Does that instill a high level of confidence in any of you?
Comment by slackjawedyokel on 12/5 @ 7:35 am #
I note with interest that the Germans just arrested an Iranian trying to buy special weapons technology and/or equipment.
Why bother with developing your own program when you can just shop at Bombs’R'Us?
Comment by Enoch_Root on 12/5 @ 8:23 am #
bureaucrats. more plausible they dont like their boss and are trying to embarrass him. I mean, I am less of a fan than ever of Bush, but I don’t trust these intelligence fucks any more than my local weatherman. Nor the IAEA.
Comment by Rob Crawford on 12/5 @ 8:39 am #
Something they’ve been doing for most of Bush’s presidency.
Comment by JD on 12/5 @ 9:05 am #
Was this unanimous? Remember how the Left claimed that any dissenting voices on these things were evidence that Bushlied and people died, and that the intelligence community was pressured by the Admin to make their findings conform to the positions taken by the Admin? Consensus. I do not like that word in regards to AGW, and even less when it comes to nuclear weapons.
Comment by Lost My Cookies on 12/5 @ 9:15 am #
Did you read the “key differences” section? The differences were, to paraphrase:
We thought they could, if they really worked hard, get the material to make a bomb by the end of this decade or the middle of next. Now we think that if they really work hard they might be able to get the material to get a bomb by the end of 2009 and more probably by 2013.
Yeah, I see the difference there.
Comment by JD on 12/5 @ 9:17 am #
Is this supposed to be reassuring ?
Comment by McGehee on 12/5 @ 11:05 am #
I think it’s supposed to be the hook on which another anti-Bush talking point can be hung.
Comment by Lost My Cookies on 12/5 @ 11:09 am #
I think it’s just more proof that no one in the government can count.
Comment by Lost My Cookies on 12/5 @ 11:12 am #
And no one in the press can read.
May 2005
Assess with high confidence that Iran
currently is determined to develop nuclear
weapons despite its international
obligations and international pressure, but
we do not assess that Iran is immovable.
Dec 2007
Judge with high confidence that in fall 2003,
Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. Judge
with high confidence that the halt lasted at least
several years. (DOE and the NIC have moderate
confidence that the halt to those activities
represents a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons
program.) Assess with moderate confidence
Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons
program as of mid-2007, but we do not know
whether it currently intends to develop nuclear
weapons. Judge with high confidence that the halt
was directed primarily in response to increasing
international scrutiny and pressure resulting from
exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear
work. Assess with moderate-to-high confidence
that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the
option to develop nuclear weapons.
LMC asseses with supreme confidence that pretty much everyone involved in writing and declassifying this document are morons. But pretty good spellers.
Comment by ccs on 12/5 @ 11:21 am #
But Karl, he didn’t inhale.
Comment by Karl on 12/5 @ 1:53 pm #
JD,
The press accounts suggest that the new and improved process does not focus on unanimity. I would bet the classified version has a much wider range of opinion represented.
Comment by mojo on 12/5 @ 2:32 pm #
But if we pound their industrial capacity into rubble and blockade the gulf, it might take considerably longer. Just sayin’…
Comment by JD on 12/5 @ 2:47 pm #
Karl – Isn’t that range of varying opinions the exact thing that the press and the Left have vilified President Bush for in his prior statements? There is simply nothing that the press will not be overtly dishonest about anymore.
Comment by guinsPen on 12/5 @ 9:27 pm #
Nuke Foggy Bottom.
Comment by Topsecretk9 on 12/5 @ 9:50 pm #
The Grey Lady seems to think the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran  which contains more dovish assessments than the 2005 NIE  is evidence of our new and improved intelligence community:
This is sorta why their stock has tanked, you know. Takes one to know one. Takes a fucked up organization to try an prop up a bedfellow fucked up organization.
OT but I thought kinda funny the Grey Lady’s remedy to eating their ass financially was to fire all the NON product producing staff! right before Christmas -!
HEH.
Comment by Rusty on 12/6 @ 6:25 am #
Hmmmm. Then what the hell are those 3000 centrafuges for?
Comment by B Moe on 12/6 @ 6:47 am #
“Then what the hell are those 3000 centrafuges for?”
Centrifuge? What centrifuge? Those are carnival rides. Yeah! That’s it! Those aren’t centrifuges, those are carnival rides!
FOR THE CHILDREN!
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