Clear Evidence 2006 Congressional Elections Hacked<\/a>\n<\/p>\n\nHoo boy! Chock Full O’ Nuts.\n<\/p>\n
\nKarl did the fisking<\/b> (the links are in the comments)\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Ummm\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u00a6 I had a detailed analysis of why EDA\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s analysis is a pantload, including a fair amount regarding the suspect 11.5 perecent average spread in party ID in the pre-election polling. Some polls had it in the 13-16% range, others in the 4-7% range\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009da discrepancy that explained by the way different orgs screen and weight likely voters in polls taken at the end of a cycle. Gallup\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009dgenerally considered the most reliable over decades\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009dhad the spread at almost exactly the same as the spread reported from the actual vote.\n<\/p>\n
\n… and EE ate the comment. As it\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s now 3:41 local time, I\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2ll go straight to the kicker\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009dand without links, though I\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2ll be glad to dig them out of my cache if anyone doubts the following:\n<\/p>\n
\nThis EDA group is relying on screenshots from CNN. It\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s a PDF file at the EDA site. If you compare those screen shots to the actual source document\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009da PDF file you can find at Fox (but which was distributed to the pool of networks)\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009dyou\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2ll find that the 11.5% spread EDA thinks was the House vote was actually a question about party ID. Moreover, the 11.5% figure appears in neither document. EDA calculated it from subgroups. That matters because EDA makes a big deal out of the exit poll\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s 1% MoE, when in reality the MoE will be larger for the subgroups.\n<\/p>\n
\nIn sum, EDA did a lot of fuzzy math.\n<\/p>\n
\nHere\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s those CNN screenshots. Here\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s the source document. Note that the first question does not actually ask for whom the respondent voted, but breaks down the demographics by party ID.\n<\/p>\n
\nIndeed, I would bet that the the networks never saw any topline numbers on the House per se. You may recall that the nets actually made a point of stating that they were not going to call House races on the basis of exit poll data, as they never have. What EDA and you are looking at are the demographic data that the nets talked about before they were even calling races.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I’m too “tired” to do this properly, so I’m wondering if one of you folks–Karl, maybe?–would like to have some fun with this post where loonbats claim that voting machines were hacked to skew things towards the Republicans, only not enough to affect the outcome of the Midterms, beyond preventing a Democrat landslide. Their evidence? Exit polling. Clear Evidence 2006 Congressional Elections Hacked Hoo boy! Chock Full O’ Nuts. Karl<\/p>\n
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