{"id":10985,"date":"2008-02-05T23:38:41","date_gmt":"2008-02-06T05:38:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/?p=10985"},"modified":"2008-02-05T23:38:41","modified_gmt":"2008-02-06T05:38:41","slug":"election-2008-back-of-the-envelope-delegate-estimates-karl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/?p=10985","title":{"rendered":"Election 2008: Back-of-the-envelope delegate estimates [Karl]"},"content":{"rendered":"

Given that most of the television coverage — as expected<\/a> — tended to focus on states, even when most states do not award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, I jotted down Dark Lord Karl Rove’s “back-of-the-envelope” delegate estimates.<\/p>\n

On the GOP side, Rove estimated roughly 520-550 delegates for McCain, 220-250 for Romney, and 200 for Huckabee.<\/p>\n

On the Dems’ side, Rove had pre-California estimates of 629 delegates for\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Clinton, 568 for Obama.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 That is is roughly in line with the 606 to 534<\/a> estimate from the Obama camp pre-California.<\/p>\n

Both Rove and Camp Obama emphasized Obama’s wins in Red states.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 This development should not shock regular PW readers<\/a>.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Some of this can be attributed to the large black vote in GA, but is also likely due to Obama’s strength in rural areas.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Moreover, Obama tended to focus on red-to-purple states, often caucus states, where fewer Dems means cheaper delegates.<\/p>\n

Update:<\/strong><\/em>\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 During the transition from Brit Hume to Chris Wallace, the latter mentioned that Rove now figures Hillary could end up with over 100 dlegates more than Obama for the night.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 This would put Obama below the expectations<\/a> set by his own campaign.<\/p>\n

Update x2:<\/strong><\/em> The latest estimate from Camp Obama<\/a> is Obama: 677 \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u0153 Clinton: 634, without California.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Plouffe!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Given that most of the television coverage — as expected — tended to focus on states, even when most states do not award delegates on a winner-take-all basis, I jotted down Dark Lord Karl Rove’s “back-of-the-envelope” delegate estimates. On the GOP side, Rove estimated roughly 520-550 delegates for McCain, 220-250 for Romney, and 200 for Huckabee. On the Dems’ side, Rove had pre-California estimates of 629 delegates for\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Clinton, 568 for<\/p>\n

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