{"id":10935,"date":"2008-02-02T20:01:43","date_gmt":"2008-02-03T02:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/?p=10935"},"modified":"2008-02-02T20:01:43","modified_gmt":"2008-02-03T02:01:43","slug":"dems-2008-obama-takes-on-hillarys-hispanic-firewall-karl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/?p=10935","title":{"rendered":"Dems 2008: Obama takes on Hillary’s Hispanic firewall [Karl]"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since mentioning Sen. Hillary Clinton’s Hispanic firewall<\/a> right after the New Hampshire primary, the media discovered it in Nevada and is giving it\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0at least some\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0play for Super-Duper Tuesday, particularly\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0with regard to the 370-lb gorilla that is California (441-lbs if you count superdelegates).<\/p>\n

Sen. Barack Obama is taking his campaign to the firewall, but this year’s accelerated schedule hampers him.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Hispanic voters in California (and elsewhere) simply do not know him<\/a>, particularly when compared to the near-universal celebrity of the Clintons.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Dolores Huerta,\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0a co-founder of the United Farm Workers union and\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0one of Clinton’s most prominent\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0endorsers, coined the slogan\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0“si se puede<\/em>“<\/a> with Cesar Chavez in the 1970s and says Obama’s adoption of the slogan as his dog-whistle<\/a> won’t cut it.<\/p>\n

He is counting his general appeal to younger voters<\/a> working with Hispanics in California as well<\/a>.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Given the historical underperformance of both Hispanics<\/a> (esp. when compared to blacks) and the young, this seems doubly risky.<\/p>\n

Obama is working to\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0become<\/em> known.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Obama’s approach to Hispanics, young and old, gets a big boost from recent endorser Sen. Ted Kennedy.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 People tend to forget — and the media usually fails to mention — that the Kennedys, especially Ted, are largely responsible<\/a> for the current immigration system since 1965.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Kennedy has hit the trail hard<\/a> in California and New Mexico for Obama.<\/p>\n

Ted is also working the Hispanic media for Obama.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Both candidates appeared recently on the popular Spanish-language morning radio show “Piol\u00c3\u0192\u00c2\u00adn por la Ma\u00c3\u0192\u00c2\u00b1ana,” which some might be surprised to learn is\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0the biggest\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0radio show in the country<\/a>.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 El Piol\u00c3\u0192\u00c2\u00adn, a\/k\/a DJ \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cEddie\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d Sotelo,\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0is (as you might not be surprised to learn) huge in SoCal and was a driving force<\/a> behind the nationwide immigraion marches of the past few years.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 He had Ted flack for Obama for 20 minutes<\/a> in the heart of the morning drive, after a three minute pre-produced bio calling him \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cthe best senator in America.\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Ted appeared with Obama on Univision<\/a> as well.<\/p>\n

The Clinton and Obama campaigns\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0have spent close to $300,000 apiece\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0advertising on Univision<\/a> this week. Obama is concentrating\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0on the L.A. market, while Clinton is spreading it across the state, according to Univision officials.<\/p>\n

La Opini\u00c3\u0192\u00c2\u00b3n<\/a>, L.A.’s\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0major Spanish language newspaper, endorsed\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Obama — the first<\/a> endorsement in the paper’s history for a primary.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

On the ground,\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0long before public attention truned to Super-Duper Tuesday,\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Clinton has mounted an aggressive absentee\/early voter drive.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Tuesday’s L.A. Times\/CNN\/Politico poll<\/a> found that Clinton had a major edge with voters planning to vote by mail\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0(53% to 30%), with a narrower\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0lead\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0among those planning to vote in precincts (42% to 34%).\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Independents can vote in the Democratic primary; Camp Obama is miffed that the state party has been a bit lackadaisical in promoting that fact.<\/p>\n

Both candidates are deploying massive organizations<\/a>\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0for Super-Duper Tuesday, but especially in the Golden State:<\/p>\n

Realizing they were heading into not just California but Super Tuesday primaries in Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, which all have large Latino populations, the Obama campaign has made Latino outreach one if its top priorities. The front desk of its Los Angeles headquarters on the ninth floor of an anonymous office building in Korean town has a sign-up sheet titled: “We really need your help reaching out to Spanish speakers.” The list is full. The campaign’s extensive Latino outreach program includes 6,000 precinct captains and 223 teams of 1,500 trained volunteers. They were the first up with Spanish language TV and radio ads, and have placed tens of thousands of phone calls reaching out to Latino households.<\/p>\n

And they will need it. Currently Obama trails Clinton in polls of Latino voters 59% to 19%, according to the latest Field Poll of California Democratic likely voters. Overall, Clinton leads Obama 39% to 27%. (FWIW, <\/em>Rasmussen<\/em><\/a> has the gap at 3% overall and 27% among Hispanics, though his poll has\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0had the CA race tighter than others\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0for a while already. – K)<\/em> \u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0“I doubt that he can win the Latino vote,” said Mark DiCamillo, head of the poll. “But if he can make it a little more manageable, two to one or less, that would certainly make an impact. He could win California without winning the Latino vote. Narrowing the margin, that is probably what he’s after.”<\/p>\n

Clinton is hardly giving it up without a fight. In fact, Obama has a lot of catching up to do with her formidable machine in California. Her campaign has placed nearly 650,000 calls to Latino women \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009d part of the nearly two million they’ve done total, twice as many as the Obama campaign \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009d across the state, 12,000 of them to Latinas in the 37th district. “Most of our outreach is directed to women,” said Michael Trujillo, Clinton’s California field director. “We made the targeted decision long time ago to focus our resources on where we can have the biggest effect and for us that’s women \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Latino, African-American, white, Asian. There should not be a woman in this state that we do not reach out to.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Incidentally, that wave of Clinton phone calls comes courtesy of the “HillStars,”<\/a> which trained 1,000\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0members to then train and manage 20 other “Hillary Corps” campaign volunteers each, who in turn will be “contacting 200 voters in their social networks and convincing those people to vote for Sen. Clinton,” according to\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0a Clinton\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0campaign manual.<\/p>\n

The San Franciso Chronicle reports that:<\/p>\n

The campaign’s target is 4 million contacts with state voters through events like “bring your own phone” parties – in which cell phone-wielding volunteers get together and create their own roving phone banks, talking to voters at night and on weekends, when call times are free.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This is both very 21st century and cost-effective.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 It is also notable that the HillStars are apparently big in California’s Asian-American community<\/a>, and that the polling may not be adequately capturing that bloc of voters.<\/p>\n

Given the vast landscape of California, let alone the motley collection of states voting on Tuesday, these resources are deployed to targets of opportunity.<\/p>\n

Obama is testing his mettle as Unifier\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0in California.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 His campaign is working places lile Oakland, Berkeley and Marin County<\/a> because Democrats there tend to fit his voter profile — more educated,\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0younger\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0and blacker.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Though experts debate<\/a> the black-crown divide,\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0South Los Angeles and Compton<\/a>\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0have transformed into majority-Hispanic communities and it has caused some degree of friction between blacks and Hispanics.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Clinton thinks she might\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0crush Obama in East L.A<\/a>, but Obama has been stumping<\/a> there (it may again boil down to Obama’s late start in the Hispanic community).<\/p>\n

As previously<\/a> noted, Clinton has been delegate-hunting north of Los Angeles, working the Hispanic vote in Salinas (the 17th Congressional district)\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0and its adjacent congressional districts.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 However, it appears that Obama\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0hopes to beat Clinton in the 17th CD<\/a> by taking the liberals in Santa Cruz.<\/p>\n

Both campaigns have to make decisions driven by the byzantine formula for delegate selection<\/a> on the Democratic side.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 The more Democratic a district is, the more delegates it tends to have, which could reward the candidate who runs strong in districts where an odd number of delegates are at stake.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 As nomination maven Rhodes Cook explained to Campaigns & Elections magazine:<\/p>\n

\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cIf Obama wins a district 59 percent to 41 percent, and that district has five delegates, Obama stands to win three delegates to Clinton\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00e2\u201e\u00a2s two,\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d he said. \u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c5\u201cBut take a district where there are six delegates. You can win by the same margin and both [candidates] could end up with three delegates apiece.\u00c3\u00a2\u00e2\u201a\u00ac\u00c2\u009d\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Marc Ambinder<\/a> adds that it is easier for the “challenger” (e.g., Obama in CA, Clinton in IL) to extract an additional delegate by winning a smaller, odd-delegate congressional district than by trying to winner a larger, odd-delegate congressional district.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 He also delves a little deeper to show the interplay of the selection rules and demographics:<\/p>\n

But wait — if you’re in charge of Obama’s California spending, do you spent, say, $100,000 extra in the 6th Congressional District, which comprises Marin County and Somona County north of San Fransisco? It allocates an even number of delegates — six. Unless there’s a landslide, both Obama and Clinton will get 3, each.<\/p>\n

Why not spend that money trying to beat Clinton in the 7th congressional district across the bay — Solano County and parts of Contra Costa counties, where the congressman, George Miller, has already endorsed Obama? CD 7 allocated 5 delegates, an an extra effort there might give Obama one extra delegate.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Moreover, while media coverage of the primaries tends to focus on the cities (the larger the city the more media there is), Al Giordano correctly notes that Obama won the rural vote<\/a> in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Perversely, the relative lack of rural media — and its relative economy<\/a> compared to urban media — could make for some cheap delegates for Obama.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Indeed, the Obama campaign\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0is looking\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0beyond\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0the big cities <\/a>to\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0places like Greeley, CO, Tucson, AZ\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0and Las Cruces, NM, for delegates.<\/p>\n

It is a decision matrix<\/a> that tends to make the head swim.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Nevertheless, California (even as a proxy for Super-Duper Tuesday campaigning generally) illustrates one of the main themes I have been blogging\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0throughout the campaign — more often than not, the media\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0watches the topline polls, but campaigns use them to help pick\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0the targets for their organization.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Demographics, geography, eligible voter rules, delegate selection formulas, media strategy, and resources\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0available from\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0endorsers all weigh into these decisions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since mentioning Sen. Hillary Clinton’s Hispanic firewall right after the New Hampshire primary, the media discovered it in Nevada and is giving it\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0at least some\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0play for Super-Duper Tuesday, particularly\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0with regard to the 370-lb gorilla that is California (441-lbs if you count superdelegates). Sen. Barack Obama is taking his campaign to the firewall, but this year’s accelerated schedule hampers him.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0Hispanic voters in California (and elsewhere) simply do not know him, particularly<\/p>\n

Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":636,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/636"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10935\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}