{"id":10540,"date":"2008-01-02T11:50:10","date_gmt":"2008-01-02T17:50:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/?p=10540"},"modified":"2008-01-02T11:50:10","modified_gmt":"2008-01-02T17:50:10","slug":"iowa-2008-beyond-electric-boogaloo-part-3-karl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/proteinwisdom.com\/?p=10540","title":{"rendered":"Iowa 2008: Beyond Electric Boogaloo, Part 3 [Karl]"},"content":{"rendered":"

An article like Adam Nagourney’s\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0“What if Iowa Settles Nothing for Democrats?”<\/a> is patently silly on its face, though perhaps a marker of\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0the shallowness of The New York Times.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 At RealClearPolitics<\/a>, Jay Cost lays out the data showing that Iowa not only settles nothing, but is rarely influential on New Hampshire, let alone the rest of a presidential campaign.<\/p>\n

Yet an article like Roger Simon’s “Should Hillary Clinton have skipped Iowa?”<\/a> in the Politico is almost as silly, albeit in a different way.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 That may seem contrary to the thesis that Iowa is unimportant, so allow me to explain.<\/p>\n

The central dynamic of the Democratic presidential nomination has been known for years.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 It is a referendum on Sen. Hillary Clinton.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 It is a race between Clinton and NotClinton.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Thus, the only real issue in the campaign would be whether NotClinton could reach critical mass to defeat Clinton.<\/p>\n

On that issue, whether one examines the polls<\/a> from the early primary and caucus states, or the candidates’ third quarter financial statements<\/a>, the likely answer is fairly obvious.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Though Obama has raised enough money to continue in the process for some time to come, Edwards takes enough of the NotClinton vote and NotClinton money that NotClinton is unlikely to defeat Clinton.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Moreover, as Jay Cost notes in the piece linked above, “momentum more usually characterizes also-rans rather than nominees.”\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Thus even a win or near-win by Edwards in Iowa would be unlikely to change the basic contours of the race.<\/p>\n

Had Clinton ceded Iowa to Obama and Edwards, two perceptions could have taken hold.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 First, her position as front-runner would have been weakened.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Second, Clinton’s absence would have\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0painted the Iowa caucuses more starkly\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0as a referendum on who would get to be NotClinton, and perhaps given momentum to the winner as against a seemingly weaker Clinton going into New Hampshire.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 This is why it is silly to ask whether Clinton should have skipped Iowa.<\/p>\n

Oddly enough, Jay Cost’s latest post<\/a> on the Nagourney article takes it seriously, not because it has any insight about the reality of the race, but because it raises the possibility that the media<\/em> will declare Iowa to be a “push.”\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 I would go further than Cost on this point.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 The media would likely welcome an outcome that can be called an Iowa “push,” because it gives the illusion of drama to a story that in reality has little.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 Moreover, if Clinton wins the nomination — as she is exceedingly likely to do — the media will be able to paint it as a\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0hard-fought victory, instead of\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0a cakewalk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An article like Adam Nagourney’s\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0“What if Iowa Settles Nothing for Democrats?” is patently silly on its face, though perhaps a marker of\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0the shallowness of The New York Times.\u00c3\u201a\u00c2\u00a0 At RealClearPolitics, Jay Cost lays out the data showing that Iowa not only settles nothing, but is rarely influential on New Hampshire, let alone the rest of a presidential campaign. Yet an article like Roger Simon’s “Should Hillary Clinton have skipped Iowa?”<\/p>\n

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