Conducting and interpreting public opinion polls is as much art as science.  Some incorrectly take that to mean that polls are not scientific, when in fact they are (for the most part). On the other hand, those who reflexively accept each answer given in a public opinion poll as a precise scientific measurement may read too much into them.ÂÂ
For example, at Hot Air on Monday, Allah was freaking over a new CBS News poll showing that 72% of adults want the US out of Iraq within two years.
What Allah did not know was that a similar 75% said they wanted a commitment of two years or less… in the summer of 2005, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. And in comparing various polls taken then, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman noted how a year “may not seem like much time to military planners, but it does to ordinary people.”
If 75% really wanted the US out of Iraq in two years or less in 2005, a casual observer might have hypothesized that the number would be higher than that two years later, i.e., now, given the increased unpopularity of the mission. But the casual observer would have been wrong. A pro pollster (e.g., Mark Mellman) would have told his clients otherwise, based on experience reading polls. That’s where the art enters to demonstrate the limitations of the science.
Because if you ask me whether I want large numbers of US troops in Iraq two years from now, I would answer in the negative — because what I want is for US troops to drive down civilian casualties and the Iraqis to reconcile politically as soon as possible.ÂÂ
Knowing that counter-insurgencies take time to prevail, what I expect is different from what I want. And so it is in the new CBS News poll, in which the question asked both ways, with 58% saying they expect to stay longer than two years.ÂÂ
Given that the “want” number has not changed in two years, it is better seen as a generalized sentiment. The “expect” number likely reflects public thinking better. The problem for politicians is that they have to manage both public thinking and public sentiment. But you can bet they know that is their problem; professional politicians hire professional pollsters precisely because they have learned that taking any particular poll answer at face value is the road to unemployment.
Comment by BJTex on 9/18 @ 2:00 pm #
Karl: I crown you with a new title:
NAIB OF NUANCE! ALL HAIL KARL!!
BTW: The Narrative™ just called and is really getting pissed that you’re constantly tweaking it’s smooth, creamy message.
There’s talk of a demonstration of some kind, involving caskets, big head puppets and lots and lots of ketsup.
Try not to be home this weekend.
Comment by observational analysis on 9/18 @ 5:36 pm #
Karl wants a brand new pony, but he only expects a brand new puppy.
Later, maybe come March, maybe later than that, the President will tell Karl that in five years he may get a brand new gerbil.
Karl will defend the change once again…’cause he still wants that pony and, if he believes in the President hard enough, he thinks the President will give him the pony.
Because of the nuances of the polls, which still show the Presidents party getting spanked in 2008
Comment by BJTex on 9/18 @ 6:47 pm #
Welcome to the New Math! Please see the formula below:
observational analysis = incoherant gibberish
Discuss
Comment by Karl on 9/18 @ 6:47 pm #
Actually, I expect — as I’ve written here several times — that it takes about a decade to burn out an insurgency. And I’m allergic to dogs.
Polls a year out from an election are fairly meaningless (just ask Howard Dean or GHWBush), but I would note that none show a “spanking” at this point.
Were I obs anal, I would be more concerned that HRC — the prohibitive Dem fave at the moment — consistently polls high numbers of people who specifically say they would not vote for her for President.
Comment by BJTex on 9/18 @ 6:49 pm #
Karl: Enough with the nuance and reasoned analysis!
STOP SCREWING WITH THE NARRATIVE™!!!!!!
Comment by maggie katzen on 9/18 @ 7:48 pm #
wait, wait, you’re all missing the point. obs anal can see into the future! IT’S A LOSER!
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Comment by observational analysis on 9/19 @ 10:37 pm #
You know, the surfboard spam was much more witty and intelligent than any of the other (predictable) responses.
Karl, how many times does your analysis reveal you will let the goalposts be moved? It’s been three times (conservatively speaking) so far. Any idea how many you’ll fall for? I mean, are you still gonna be sitting here in four years, spinning polls that show no one knows what’s going but you and your friends?
PS. Your Hillary rant? Her negatives are as high as they are going to go, whereas Guiliani’s, Thompson’s, and Romney’s have not even begun to soar.
On a tactical level, she can win every State Kerry won, plus add Florida. Here’s a poll for you
http://static.crooksandliars.com/2007/07/mtp-todd-florida.jpg
Tell me how that looks for Florida, Arizona and New Mexico. Oops for the Republican nominee.
And, to think, I’m not even that fond of her.
Comment by observational analysis on 9/19 @ 10:43 pm #
I might add, also, that I said the President’s party…not the President. Presidents are tough to predict. 22 of 34 Senate seats up for re-election next year are Republicans. They are going to have a tough time. You folks need to learn to read
and BJ lay off the narrative comment. Every time you post you vomit that up. It’s like you’re a little doll and every time a string is pulled, you spit out “the Narrative.” I am unimpressed.
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