Thomas F. Schaller has a post up at Salon entitled “So long, white boy: Could 2008 be the year that Democrats finally admit an old sweetheart is never coming back, and stop pandering to the white male voter?”
Schaller argues that demographics will make white male voters increasingly irrelevant:
In 1952, according to calculations performed by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz for Salon, white males were nearly half the American electorate…In next year’s election, white males may account for fewer than one out of three voters. Bubba is no longer a kingmaker.
I think Schaller is whistling past the graveyard. It isn’t just white men who have abandoned the Dems, but the entire South, and the exurbs. Here is an excerpt from a post-election analysis by the Los Angeles Times’ political correspondent Ronald Brownstein, published on 12/15/2004:
WASHINGTON  The generation-long political retreat of Democrats across the South is disintegrating into a rout.
President Bush dominated the South so completely in last month’s presidential election that he carried nearly 85% of all the counties across the region  and more than 90% of counties where whites are a majority of the population, according to a Times analysis of election results and census data.
The Times’ analysis, which provides the most detailed picture yet of the vote in Southern communities, shows that Bush’s victory was even more comprehensive than his sweep of the region’s 13 states would suggest.
His overwhelming performance left Sen. John F. Kerry clinging to a few scattered islands of support in a region that until the 1960s provided the foundation of the Democratic coalition in presidential politics. Kerry won fewer Southern counties than any Democratic nominee since the Depression except Walter F. Mondale in 1984 and George S. McGovern in 1972, according to data assembled by The Times and Polidata, a firm that specializes in political statistics.
In Southern counties without a substantial number of African American or Latino voters, Bush virtually obliterated Kerry. Across the 11 states of the old Confederacy, plus Kentucky and Oklahoma, whites constitute a majority of the population in 1,154 counties. Kerry won 90 of them.
By contrast, Bill Clinton won 510 white-majority counties in the South eight years ago.
“We are out of business in the South,” said J.W. Brannen, the Democratic Party chairman in Russell County, Ala.
In another analysis, Brownstein saw a similar phenomenon occurring in the fast-growing exurbs, leaving Democratic power increasingly concentrated in the inner cities.
Comment by Obstreperous Infidel on 9/18 @ 1:21 pm #
Hence, one of the many reasons that I am relocating to dixie. Not that I am lockstep with the GOP (hardly is an understatement) but I have done my time in dem land (whole life)and need to escape this quagmire (ha!) of class warfare and collectivist nannystate bullshit. It’s at least not as powerful down south. Plus, the weather’s better.
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