At least, so says Major Abed Alkariem Khalaf, speaking the Iraqi defense ministry, in this translated account from Buratha News:
“Smuggling mobs from Alrumailah area have been arrested after they were spotted by these surveillance plans.” Khalaf added, “Alqaida elements have lost their offensive capabilities and have become defensive. This is because Alqaida in Iraq has lost over 75% of its civilian leadership due to daily attacks and ambushes carried out by interior ministry forces backed by the Iraqi Army.”
Notes translator Haider Ajina, an Iraqi-American:
Iraqi security forces are showing tremendous progress in clearing areas of terrorists. Improvements in equipment and gear for the defense and interior ministries are allowing these forces to leverage their new capabilities. This is allowing security and stability to be maintained in cleared areas. Evidence of this is seen in Anbar province, Dialah province, many areas of Musul and many areas of Bagdad.
The surge with its clear, hold and rebuild strategy is yielding good results. Constant improvements in our training of Iraqi units and Iraqi units receiving better equipments are allowing the surge to be more effective. Now the local police are also being trained better and given more responsibilities. New police are being chosen with loyalty to the rule of law and the country instead of the tribe or sect. This reprogramming of the security apparatus in Iraq is difficult and long. Changing a thirty year long practice of oppression, abuse and submission, to one of serving and protecting is monumental task, a task we are capable of training and delivering and the Iraqis are capable of learning and internalizing.
These observations seem to jibe with the more positive accounts (several of which have been appeared in unlikely sources, including Der Spiegel and the BBC, internationally) coming out of Iraq in the wake of the stepped up US counterinsurgency.
Unfortunately, Major Khalaf provides no sourcing for his claim that 75% of al Qaeda’s civilian leadership has been lost — so the exact percentage is dubious.
Still, so long as Iraqi defense forces remain committed to rooting out al Qaeda and foreign fighters, progress should continue apace — with time working increasingly on the side of Iraqi forces, who continue to benefit from the training and assistance of US troops.
Or course, it is time that many in the anti-war camp are now working feverishly to deny Iraqis (and US forces working with them) now that the surge appears to yielding real strategic dividends.
Which, if I were a cynical person, I might attribute to the necessity, after years of calling the war a lost cause, for liberal Democrats and progressives to ensure that it stays a lost cause.
At least until they regain power — which many are beginning to worry they may not be able to do should military and political progress in Iraq occur too far in advance of the 2008 elections.
Obstructionism — which can be framed as strategic dissent, and couched in good faith disagreement with the President’s military strategies — won’t hurt anti-war Dems significantly at the polls provided they can maintain plausible reasons for such obstructionism (so far, they’ve used a host of such arguments for turning away from the commitment they signed onto — from Bush’s “lies” about WMD, to the US interfering in a civil war, to the inability of the Iraqis to forge political compromises, to the costs to Americans in blood and treasure).
But should they maintain an obstructionist stance in the face of real progress — which could augur the beginnings of a sea change in the middle east (with other countries in the region having straddled the fence of pragmatism for several years, waiting to see how US resolve would hold) — voters are likely to turn on them.
Which is why, I think, we’re beginning to see at least a few Democratic candidates reposition themselves in the run-up to Gen Petraeus’ September report: there is no doubt in my mind that the media will overplay the shortcomings and downplay the successes. Still, they will have to acknowledge the successes — which will seriously damage those calling for a precipitous pull-out of US forces.
Instead, we’ll begin hearing more about how Bush mismanaged the war, and less about it being an unjust war based on lies. At least, from those Democratic candidates who read the mood of the American electorate as less anti-war than anti-GOP handling of the war.
Which would be bad news for the netroots, who are trying to position themselves as the new “centrists,” but who could soon find their persistent anti-war efforts the very thing that marginalizes them.
Or, you know, not. Could be that I’m just engaging in a bit of wishful thinking.
But I don’t think it helps the cause of anti-war Dems that Harry Reid has already concluded that the war is lost in advance of any kind of surrender that is not rooted entirely in political defeatism.
(h/t CJ Burch)
Just to be safe, has anyone checked to see if this guy is planning to write a book when he finishes his service?
As with the U.S. and Iraqi government forces, things are “going swimmingly” for Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, are they?
And that seems rather to be the point of deploying our military there, after all: to chop the Caliphatemongers.
Cordially…
ef – I enjoy how our Prof. of Womyn’s studies holds court on all things military.
Outside of success, the only thing that the Dems fear more is there being troops on the ground if they win in ’08. They know, after hanging Viet Nam around Nixon’s neck, that simply walking away is not a real option, except in the Dem primary.
A couple of weeks ago as I was boarding the airport shuttle, a very young Al Qaeda kid boarded and sat next to me. People in the bus were looking at him. I think he made them a little nervous. I started talking to him and asked him if he joined Al Qaeda recently (since he looked so very young). He said he was going into his second wave of martyrdom-seeking jihad. His first jihad lasted more than a year and it was in one of the most violent areas. I asked him about how he felt about going back, and to my surprise he looked down at his Keds, put his head down and just made a movement with his shoulders as to say “I don’t know how I feel.†He couldn’t answer. I saw sadness and fear in his eyes.
75% huh? thats nothing the democrats lost 175% of their leadership back in 1948
Now, now, happyfeet, just because Luis’ tale sounds remarkably like the one with the little girl asking her Dad “why do Republicans hate…”, doesn’t mean you should make fun of it.
I forgot all about that “Daddy, why do Republicans hate me” story. Anybody have a link to that quote?
Che-Che!
Che Che!
“Which, if I were a cynical person, I might attribute to the necessity, after years of calling the war a lost cause, for liberal Democrats and progressives to ensure that it stays a lost cause.”
Don’t know that many people that think the problems in Iraq, or what makes it a lost cause, are al-qaeda.
Down 75%, I guess the Virgin pool is getting too low to attract new recruits
So, oagen, are you saying you think al-Qaeda thinks we casn win in Iraq, even though al-Reid and D’turban and Murthafreaker don’t?
Happyfeet,
I saw the same kid. I picked him up along 101 back in 2002. I didn’t let his Keffiyeh stop me. This was just after 9/11, and I was doing my part to soothe the fears of Muslims in America – we Yanks can be such assholes sometimes.
What pushed my buttons was, he had a wad of chewing gum stuck to the bottom of his left shoe, and, as soon as he got in the front seat of my Dodge, he started picking at the gum with an old toothpick that he produced from under his beard, and he started throwing the gooey flecks onto the carpeted floor of my rig.
At a rest-area north of Astoria, I took a better look at my passenger. As I peered at him through the sweet, sick smell of wet Juicy Fruit gum and clove cigarettes, he grinned at me. Manacingly.
And it was in the fathomless, dark space between his two front teeth that I saw the face of pure Evil.
“So, oagen, are you saying you think al-Qaeda thinks we casn win in Iraq, even though al-Reid and D’turban and Murthafreaker don’t?”
I think people with al- in their names, and that wear turbans, are going to be winning in Iraq. I don’t think they’re going to be al qaeda.
Let’s certainly hope al-Qaeda is on its ass now. Our old pal Michael J. Totten tells us that sectarian violence is become more entrenched in Iraq’s nascent democratic institutions.
Alphie? Is that you???? Where are the blueprints for the Balloon Fence Missile Shield?™
Whoa, BJ, don’t leap ’til you’re sure there’s water in the pool.
What oagen describes is what I’d call “victory”. Or are you angling for a governorship in the Raj?
Regards,
Ric
How about it oagen? Is that what you meant?
“Changing a thirty year long practice of oppression, abuse and submission, to one of serving and protecting is monumental task”
Yeah, it will, but maybe some of the new blood in Congress are up for…oh, wait. They were talking about the Iraqis. Nevermind…
“How about it oagen? Is that what you meant?”
I think victory will look like people with al in their names and turbans being in charge. Not really people with “casey” or “bremer” in their names. What do people mean when they talk about turbans and al- names? Do they take that to mean losing or winning?
But even if al-qaeda is gone, there is still plenty of reason for “lost cause” left.
So your main concern is protecting the “lost cause” meme against any and all good news. Gotcha.
I guess liberals have never recovered from their rout in the War on Poverty. So to them every war looks like a lost cause.
Thank god the surge isn’t working.
We need to get to the real villains, in Pakistan. And yes, I want a man with a middle name of Hussein leading our fight in Iraq. It just seems fitting.
Ok
“Florida” – good on ya “3896j” – i was told there would be no math…
*And that seems rather to be the point of deploying our military there, after all: to chop the Caliphatemongers.*
And that is and has been the heart of it. We’re saying “Here we are, in Iraq, come take your best shot”. If the Islamofacists can’t beat a part of our military in a somewhat hostile country, they sure as hell have no chance of establishing a caliphate in north america, despite Harry Reid and Madam Pelosi (who would look right at home in a burka).
Ironic. The “che che” comment comes from the thread wherein Kos says that “TNR’s defection to the Right is now complete” after they spilled the beans on the Townhouse e-mail group.
I thought only left-wing press did that leak thing.
TW: McNamara divines that we need another 100,000 troops to do the job and he knows where to get them. (Sorry, that’s ancient military trivia but too appropriate at present to pass up the TW).
McNamara’s 100,000. Even Alphie would have qualified!
“So your main concern is protecting the “lost cause†meme against any and all good news.”
Somebody has to make sure that problems that don’t fit in with hte al-qaeda narrative get fixed.
Ric, I think the tank truck just backed in to fill the pool.
We’ll open a path through the Mile High Dirt Berms.™
Somebody tell
actusoagen the correct misspelling of “hte” is “teh.”‘We’ll open a path through the Mile High Dirt Berms.â„¢
There’s gotta be room for the ethnic cleansing!
oagen/actus confuses us always. I think she/he even confuses him/herself.