Why I despair [guest post by Geoff B]
There is a web site where the owner works very hard on statistics relating to gun-control and crime worldwide as well as US and local. Like the Watts Up With That site does with the global warming/climate change statistics. His posts are full of numbers, graphs, and links to sources for the numbers. In one off main topic post there was this line:
It might also help the general understanding to note that approximately seven percent of “actual rapes” result in pregnancy.
This piqued my interest as during the Todd Akin affair the left kept saying 5% to 7% of rapes result in pregnancy but the things they linked to didn’t seem to be well done studies so in a comment I asked for his source for the number. He gave me this site as his source which has this line:
1 in 15 rape victims become pregnant as a result of being raped (11).
Now aside from the obvious bias of the source they put a number at the end of the line (11) which implies a footnote on the source but they have none and instead have a long list of unlinked “references” and the an even longer listing of “For additional information please see:” which are links but nothing to show where the number came from.
So I replied and pointed to this source study which does cite a number, but I pointed out that the numbers they have in their abstract make no sense either compared to real world sources or to even themselves as I will show below.
He just blew me off, nicely, never deigning to even acknowledge that I sourced a large number studies which conflict with the only one which has a number close to what he put out. If I can’t even get a numbers guy to look at how the left bends truth in areas other than his own stamping ground I despair for ever getting this country back as everyone knows the left lies about the one thing they care about but they then trust them in all else as being truthful.
The one study that the left links has this abstract of their study.
OBJECTIVE: We attempted to determine the national rape-related pregnancy rate and provide descriptive characteristics of pregnancies that result from rape. STUDY DESIGN: A national probability sample of 4008 adult American women took part in a 3-year longitudinal survey that assessed the prevalence and incidence of rape and related physical and mental health outcomes.
RESULTS: The national rape-related pregnancy rate is 5.0% per rape among victims of reproductive age (aged 12 to 45); among adult women an estimated 32,101 pregnancies result from rape each year. Among 34 cases of rape-related pregnancy, the majority occurred among adolescents and resulted from assault by a known, often related perpetrator. Only 11.7% of these victims received immediate medical attention after the assault, and 47.1% received no medical attention related to the rape. A total 32.4% of these victims did not discover they were pregnant until they had already entered the second trimester; 32.2% opted to keep the infant whereas 50% underwent abortion and 5.9% placed the infant for adoption; an additional 11.8% had spontaneous abortion.
CONCLUSIONS: Rape-related pregnancy occurs with significant frequency. It is a cause of many unwanted pregnancies and is closely linked with family and domestic violence. As we address the epidemic of unintended pregnancies in the United States, greater attention and effort should be aimed at preventing and identifying unwanted pregnancies that result from sexual victimization. (Am J Obstet Gynecol 1996;175:320-5.)
So they studied 4008 woman in age from 12 to 45 for 3 years and those 4008 women had 34 rape related pregnancies over those 3 years and that those pregnancies were 5% of the rapes that occurred to those 4008 women in that 3 year period. That nationwide there are 32,101 rape related pregnancies per year.
Using their figures.
That means that there were a total of 680 rapes [34/.05] to those 4008 women over 3 years. 226.67 per year for a rape rate of 5655 per 100,000 per year [100,000/4008 x 226.67].
In 2002 there were 61,561,000 women in the US aged 15 to 44 (smaller group than 12-45 but close enough). The rape rate their study has leads to there being 3,481,274 rapes [5655 x 615.61] and at 5% 174,063 pregnancies from rape.
Now the FBI reports in this time period roughly 90,000 to 95,000 forcible rapes per year. A rate of 33 per 100,000. If there are 32,101 rape related pregnancies then about 34% result in pregnancy which would be huge.
What this means is the numbers in the study are twisted somehow. Maybe most of the “women” are 12 to 20 and thus are of the age that is very fertile. Even in that case they still are getting too many rapes and too many pregnancies to make sense but they would be closer. But whatever the study which is supposed to refute Akin’s premise is flawed, badly flawed to use to prove what he said as being wrong but I can’t even get someone who does numbers day and night to look at it and see that the left twists things outside what he knows they twist.
This is not the only time I’ve seen people know that the left and the media lie about things that they know about but then turn around and believe them on things they don’t know about, accepting those lies as truth in all the other things where they have no expertise and not bother to look at the lies when they are pointed to.
As I said this is why I despair.