Polls and prognosticators
For your weekend, and in no particular order, here are takes on this coming Tuesday not always built on mainstream polling. And some mainstream polling.
I think it passes scrutiny to say that all of these results are either mid-Sandy or post-Sandy and whatever minor bounce the part-time President and most-time candidate Obama enjoyed courtesy of a natural disaster and a devastated northeast has subsided. Since Americans are American the national divide has resumed in earnest — you’re either facing a hundred years of progressivism finally become too rotten to leave on the premises anymore or you’re looking for that next Obamaphone. When independents scram right this hard something’s up.
With that I present you admitted Obama defectors. Admitted Obama defectors.
Pennsylvania: Some major trending for the governor right now that is being totally under-reported by the media. Some counties looking like they will be upwards of 70% Romney. #s will be played tight via media reports during early hours of election night, but watch for a call by around 8:30 or so for the governor. And that my friend, is when the entire liberal establishment really starts to do the backside pucker.
Wisconsin: Like McDonnell in Virginia, Walker has really helped with the ground game structure in Wisconsin. Incredible work due largely to that structure already being in place for the recent recall vote. Huge pick-up for the governor. The beginning of the “turn out the lights” moment for the Obama campaign.
Breitbart from yesterday: Pennsylvania Tied, 47-47, On Eve of Romney’s Arrival
The final Susquehanna Polling & Research Poll shows a 47-47% tie heading into the Tuesday election. Romney is seen slightly more favorable (+4) than Obama (+1). Adding to Romney’s advantage is that an overwhelming 71% place economic and fiscal issues as their top concern, and 56% believe the nation is headed on the wrong track. Romney campaigns in Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon.
We’ve been reporting for close to a week that Minnesota, the bluest of blue states, which has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since 1976, is very much in play for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Today, we got statistical confirmation that is the case via an American Future Fund poll.
Stephen Green, PJM: It Ain’t by the Numbers
So how did a blogger in his pajamas absolutely smear a statistician armed with the best tools and data the New York Times could provide?
Well, as I said, I have a technique. It’s called “judgment.”
Back on the first Green gave it to R/R at 53% of the popular vote, with Obama 222, Romney 316 in the EC.
Stacy McCain’s must-read: OHIO: MATH IS HARD, from which comes Hot Air’s Marist poll in Ohio has D+9 sample — linked because samples like this have not been uncommon — and Ohio Math: Numbers Equal Trouble for Democrats
You’ve seen this: Ohio: Romney Draws 30,000, Obama Draws 2800. But did you know community size favored Obama by three times?
Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election – Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Miami Herald: Mitt Romney maintains lead over Obama, 51-45
Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.
Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Final stretch in Iowa gives edge to Obama
Iowans are feeling more optimistic about where the nation is headed, and they’re giving President Barack Obama the credit.
Obama is up 5 percentage points in Iowa, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47 percent to 42 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, although the results also contain signs of hope for Romney, political strategists said.
Likewise the New York Daily News, although by the familiar faulty reasoning that Presidents chart economic success. Unless they dismantle what stands between you and that success, they don’t. Given the periodic failures of big government Presidents, like, huh? Or isn’t that predictable phenomenon a bug as much as it is a feature?
New Hampshire: WMUR Granite State Poll: Presidential race in a dead heat
Amazon heat map: 60/40 Romney. h/t Instapundit
Deservedly last, WAPO celebrities opine. Jim Cramer: Obama wins 440 EC votes.
Updates added as they occur you find them. And a personal disclaimer is in order. I find myself shifting towards Romney out of a faint but somewhat validated belief that having infiltrated the GOP at the local level, the TEA Party and various liberty-minded grassrooters are prepared to hold R/R feet to the fire. This post therefore informs more than it endorses in this, our last best hope for classical American liberalism.
From the comments:
newrouter: The Wisconsin State Journal picked seven of eight winning presidential candidates leading to 2012; now picks Romney:
Not enough hope and too little change.
That is President Barack Obama’s record on the economy, debt and Washington gridlock after four years in the White House.
The State Journal editorial board endorses Mitt Romney in Tuesday’s presidential election.