Polls and prognosticators
JHoward
For your weekend, and in no particular order, here are takes on this coming Tuesday not always built on mainstream polling. And some mainstream polling.
I think it passes scrutiny to say that all of these results are either mid-Sandy or post-Sandy and whatever minor bounce the part-time President and most-time candidate Obama enjoyed courtesy of a natural disaster and a devastated northeast has subsided. Since Americans are American the national divide has resumed in earnest — you’re either facing a hundred years of progressivism finally become too rotten to leave on the premises anymore or you’re looking for that next Obamaphone. When independents scram right this hard something’s up.
With that I present you admitted Obama defectors. Admitted Obama defectors.
Tuesday Election Break Down – How Romney Wins
Pennsylvania: Some major trending for the governor right now that is being totally under-reported by the media. Some counties looking like they will be upwards of 70% Romney. #s will be played tight via media reports during early hours of election night, but watch for a call by around 8:30 or so for the governor. And that my friend, is when the entire liberal establishment really starts to do the backside pucker.
PA?
Wisconsin: Like McDonnell in Virginia, Walker has really helped with the ground game structure in Wisconsin. Incredible work due largely to that structure already being in place for the recent recall vote. Huge pick-up for the governor. The beginning of the “turn out the lights” moment for the Obama campaign.
Breitbart from yesterday: Pennsylvania Tied, 47-47, On Eve of Romney’s Arrival
The final Susquehanna Polling & Research Poll shows a 47-47% tie heading into the Tuesday election. Romney is seen slightly more favorable (+4) than Obama (+1). Adding to Romney’s advantage is that an overwhelming 71% place economic and fiscal issues as their top concern, and 56% believe the nation is headed on the wrong track. Romney campaigns in Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon.
Breitbart: Likely Voter Poll: Romney Ahead in Deep Blue Minnesota
We’ve been reporting for close to a week that Minnesota, the bluest of blue states, which has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since 1976, is very much in play for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Today, we got statistical confirmation that is the case via an American Future Fund poll.
Stephen Green, PJM: It Ain’t by the Numbers
So how did a blogger in his pajamas absolutely smear a statistician armed with the best tools and data the New York Times could provide?
Well, as I said, I have a technique. It’s called “judgment.”
Back on the first Green gave it to R/R at 53% of the popular vote, with Obama 222, Romney 316 in the EC.
Stacy McCain’s must-read: OHIO: MATH IS HARD, from which comes Hot Air’s Marist poll in Ohio has D+9 sample — linked because samples like this have not been uncommon — and Ohio Math: Numbers Equal Trouble for Democrats
You’ve seen this: Ohio: Romney Draws 30,000, Obama Draws 2800. But did you know community size favored Obama by three times?
Dead heat for Romney and Obama in latest Michigan poll
Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election – Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%
Michigan?
Miami Herald: Mitt Romney maintains lead over Obama, 51-45
Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.
Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Final stretch in Iowa gives edge to Obama
Iowans are feeling more optimistic about where the nation is headed, and they’re giving President Barack Obama the credit.
Obama is up 5 percentage points in Iowa, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47 percent to 42 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, although the results also contain signs of hope for Romney, political strategists said.
Likewise the New York Daily News, although by the familiar faulty reasoning that Presidents chart economic success. Unless they dismantle what stands between you and that success, they don’t. Given the periodic failures of big government Presidents, like, huh? Or isn’t that predictable phenomenon a bug as much as it is a feature?
New Hampshire: WMUR Granite State Poll: Presidential race in a dead heat
Amazon heat map: 60/40 Romney. h/t Instapundit
Deservedly last, WAPO celebrities opine. Jim Cramer: Obama wins 440 EC votes.
Updates added as they occur you find them. And a personal disclaimer is in order. I find myself shifting towards Romney out of a faint but somewhat validated belief that having infiltrated the GOP at the local level, the TEA Party and various liberty-minded grassrooters are prepared to hold R/R feet to the fire. This post therefore informs more than it endorses in this, our last best hope for classical American liberalism.
From the comments:
newrouter: The Wisconsin State Journal picked seven of eight winning presidential candidates leading to 2012; now picks Romney:
Not enough hope and too little change.
That is President Barack Obama’s record on the economy, debt and Washington gridlock after four years in the White House.
The State Journal editorial board endorses Mitt Romney in Tuesday’s presidential election.
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so who’s ready for a big hangover Wed. morning? I know I am. :/
Virtual hangover is going to have to do it here, missfixit. Stupid meds.
I look forward to 20 January and seeing the ass-end of Mechelle for the last time as they board MarineOne.
I am starting to wonder about voter unrest and possible shennanigans in NY/NJ right now.
Our pick: Mitt Romney
Wisconsin State Journal editorial
the comments are fun too
Good idea.
I’m getting the distinct feeling nobody really wants to re-elect Obama.
They may vote for him, and they may hope Romney doesn’t win, but Obama voters really wish it were someone else on the ballot.
Of course, I do too, but I know I’m not typical. I think with Obama voters it’s damn near universal.
romney is gonna win and we’ll all just have to deal with that it’s like when they replaced the execrable charlie with the unctuous ashton except for people get to vote
Some people do, McGehee. My ex-friend in New York who wants to become famous by writing plays that are like the “Hungry Games” but without the plot, or my other ex-friend who’s nearly completed her master’s in Library Science and now is excitedly settling into the job she already had before trying to get the degree.
You know, idiots.
The one thing we’re doing this election is taking the intellectual temperature of the United States.
William, I have to think there may actually be a market out there for screenplays and stage plays that aren’t centered around angsty, yet gutsy gays and/or angsty gutsy people of color or victimized wimmin sticking it to the Man/parents/employers/nebulous Them. That genre reached its apex with the song “Everybody’s Got AIDS” in the South Park movie.
Too bad it actually takes talent to write a decent play or novel.
Oh, definitely, Leigh. In fact, I’m banking on a positive family friendly play I wrote this year to perform well next year. Because “Ghost: The Musicial,” has to be about as low it can go.
But they’ve gone as far as they can with the whole “War is bad” “Racism is bad,” “Capitalism is bad” movies/plays. Not because they don’t have a point, but because there’s simply no story there anymore.
To make the latest “War is bad” play, they had to focus on a horse puppet, for f’ing sake. They are playing to an increasingly dwindling/bored audience.
McGehee. I took a photo of the back of Hyundai yesterday that perfectly captures that sentiment: it was all covered in bumperstickers that told you how evil Republicans are, what they’re doing to steal from you, take away your “choice” (but not of school lunch menus!), loot the middle class on behalf of the rich, etc. It didn’t say one thing positive about the progressive agenda.
And it all framed an Obama/Biden 2012 sticker.
I bet that dude thinks he’s very politically active and quite smart for having memorized the legends on his bumper stickers.
- Hey, its not all bad. Theres always this years 007 offering, and if you love an over weight Sally Fields and think shes still cute at 64. Spielbergs Lincoln should tide you over until the usual spate of Pixar studios and Dreamworks insufferably pointless adult cartoons pollute the holliday season.
- Because, you know, what would life be in the hig city without seasonal injections of pop-culture snark, and endless volumes of snappy reparte’ to make all those analyst bills mean something.
- This weeks award winning bumper stickers:
* If you love living off of other people – Obama 2012!” *
* Obana stickers available at social sevices and unemploymey offices near you *
I can’t stand, and put little faith in, polls and pollsters. Too many variables (is the respondent lying or playing for the attention of the poll taker? what color are her panties, the respondent is really wondering!) and too many ways to frame the questions and answers. We should ignore these polls for the most part, and wait for the hard results.
READER POLL!
I saw an Obama/Biden sticker on a Hummer2 the other day. Maybe the owner was being ironic, but I doubt it.
Serr8d, my son has been telling me that if the Redskins win today that Obama gets another term. It’s like, carved in sports lore granite.
Except it isn’t. The Redskins won and so did George W. Booooosh. Damn, but that dude is powerful.
The Left: Great against paper, shit against reality.
Romney said the magic words in Iowa today: He is going to issue vouchers to each state to repeal Obamacare. Not replace. Repeal.
He said it would be his first order of business.
I wonder how long it’s going to be before someone comes up with a “Narrative Science” type ‘bot that trolls through Twitter, Facebook, etc. for cultural trends and uses that to come up with novels and screenplays based on same.
He is going to issue wavers. Then he will stop and tinker with Obamacare, but not rid us of it.
Wavers, yes. Typing too fast.
He didn’t mention tinkering, cranky.
As long as he allows States to choose whether or not they can have it, we can continue to prepare for the complete collapse of the socialist side of the country.
Enough for me from one election cycle.
The Redskins won and so did George W. Booooosh.
That’s because chimpy McHitlerburton was the incumbent, wasn’t it?
I’ve never been firmly in Romney’s camp (except for 2008 because of McCain), but I want nothing more than for him to win on Tuesday so that I can the crestfallen expression on Obama’s face after he calls to concede.
Oh, who am I kidding? Even if Romney wins PA, OH and WI, Obama will call on his minions to contest the ballots in court, trying to overturn the will of the electorate because, in his opinion, who gives a shit about them? In fact, I can see Obama refusing to leave office in January after Romney gets sworn in, leading the Capitol police to forcibly remove him from the White House.
I have heard his position previously as “repeal and replace.” I won’t believe he will repeal it until I hear he has signed a bill that does just that.
It would be the Secret Service. U.S. Capitol Police have no jurisdiction at the White House.
The sight of the USSS protective-detail agents doing to Obama what they did to Hinckley in 1981 — shoving him against a wall and holding him there by the sheer mass of their bodies — would do my tiny, scaly little heart good.
Yes, he had said “repeal and replace” previously. Today it was issue waivers to all 50 (not 57) states. I’m with you though, cranky. I’ll believe it’s repealed when he signs the bill.
McGehee, I thought the USSS body-slammed Hinckley to the sidewalk? I don’t like watching that piece of film since I have to watch RWR almost get killed to see Hinckley get pounded.
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