On polling
JHoward
Baseball Crank, concluding an enormous piece on polling and predicting:
We can’t know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.
The last figures I saw had Romney polling up by six in the popular vote. The comments to this article are illuminating too.
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Michael Barone says Romney wins handily…
And I’ve some new respect for Giuliani…
SCOAMF is getting nicely bloodied.
Wow, the partisan hacks are out in force on Baseball Crank.
They lurves them some Obama.
What is it with the slavish devotion of the left to Obama? I don’t know any conservatives who are slavishly devoted to any candidate.
Barone gives Michigan to Obama.
Honestly, I don’t think there are any boots on the ground here, polling, etc.
I think they’re all just going by their gut.
I want to believe.
Watch that slave talk there, Blake. Raaaaaaaaaaaaacist.
Seriously, they are slavishly devoted to their candidate Obama as they were to WJC before him because they don’t have anything else in their lives spiritually. There is nothing greater to them than a ‘great leader’ of men. Never mind that the Great Leader isn’t doing any leading and isn’t that great, either.
They’ll deny that they are looking for a savior, but that’s exactly what they are doing. By expecting the divine out of mere man they are setting themselves up for a fall every time.
I think it is part and parcel of why lefties are so angry all of the time.
I am miserable. It looks like I have to break down and vote for Romney. I wanted to sit this out, but after Benghazi and reading the exhaustive list of outrages over the last 4 years (courtesy of Zombie), I feel like there isn’t any choice.
But this really sucks. I hate the Republicans almost as much as the Democrats at this point.
food stamp lost a lot of his voter people within months of taking office when he immediately began spending like he’d wonned the powerball
his career trajectory has closely followed justin bieber’s actually
Zombie’s list says that in summer 2011, Obama named his underage daughters as “staffers” so they could have their vacation to Africa paid for by taxpayers.
I don’t ever remember hearing about that one. Imagine that.
Everyone should read and pass on Zombie’s list over at PJ Media. It’s pretty exhaustive, and believe me you’ll be exhausted after reading it, well that and outraged. I mean if your outrage meter isn’t broken from fatigue.
leigh, yeah, it’s appalling the way the left idolizes President Obama.
This is why I consider leftists to be my enemy. I’m more than willing to discuss the shortcomings of President Bush, but leftist idolaters will never admit to any flaw in their demigod.
It’s disgusting and disturbing.
Jim, every time I think the Obama admin can no longer outrage me, they prove me wrong.
Umpteen calls to read Zombie and no link?
Here: Zombie.
- Here Zonbie….Where wolf?
I look at it this way missfixit: it’s not enough to show Obama the door and give him a shove on his way out. By voting for Romney, I’m helping to pick his skinny ass up by the shirt collar and waistband and throwing him out onto the street.
Hopefully through a plateglass window, saloon brawl style.
…in front of a street-sweeper truck.
That would sting a bit.
- He’ll have lots of time in Hawaii to write his memoirs, “The audacity of my Wonce.”
- Meltdown in Utopia:
‘FOCUSED ON IT EVERY MINUTE HE’S NOT ON STAGE’…
Sandy death toll at 109; ‘There could be more’…
Explosions jolt Manhattan residents…
2.5 million still without power…
Temps dip into the 20s…
Con Edison Distributing Dry Ice…
FREE FUEL FOR EVERYONE!
CRAIGSLIST: $15 a gallon…
Restaurant, hotel prices skyrocket…
Residents arm up: Bats, machetes, shotguns…
‘Anarchy in Queens’…
ODD-EVEN: NJ counties enact Carter-style gas rationing…
But independents approve of the way Obama’s handled Sandy and are moving back towards him.
I saw it on a sidebar on the Fox News website, so it must be true.
Virtual tie in PA Senate race
So, I’ve just seen something like I’ve never seen before. As was mentioned a few days ago, I’m excited by the prospect of turning RI-1 red, and to that end I sent a few bucks off to Brendan Doherty. The thank you letter was in today’s mail. Not only was it hand signed, but there was also a brief, hand written, personalized note of thanks. I suppose it isn’t a big thing, but sometimes the small things are just as telling as big ones.
That’s great Pablo.
I still get Christmas cards from Dubya and Laura. Class always shows in the little things.
It’s okay to hate Republicans and Democrats equally, they richly deserve it! But this isn’t about Republicans v. Democrats, it’s about the most incompetent Presidential administration in modern history. We’d undoubtedly be better off replacing Obama with someone picked randomly from the phone book. Granted someone picked randomly from the phone book might also do better than Willard, but it’s inconceivable that anyone would do worse than Teh Won. That’s where we’re at. Anybody, anybody but Obama.
Pablo, this doesn’t mean I have to return to RI voting, right? As much as I’d like to see Cicilline do the Il Duce dance.