Economy, Predator Drones to blame:
“In the past, you could take out the No. 3 al-Qaida leader, and No. 4 just moved up to take his place,” says one official. “Well, if you take out No. 3, No. 4 and then 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10, it suddenly becomes a lot more difficult to revive the leadership cadre.”
Yeah, I stole the formulation from AoSHQ.
Great day for Iraq, not so good for Iran:
The peaceful polling was remarkable and so were the results. All the Islamic parties lost ground, especially that associated with the so-called “Shia firebrand”, Moqtada al-Sadr, whose share of the vote went down from 11% to 3%. The principal Sunni Islamic party, the Islamic Party of Iraq, was wiped out.
The only Islamic party to gain ground was the Dawa party of the Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki – and even that party dropped the word Islamic from its name. The power of Maliki, who has emerged a stronger leader than expected, is further enhanced by these elections. Now no Islamic parties will be able to control any provinces on their own. The election is thus a big defeat for Iran which had hoped that Shia religious parties would control the south and enable Iran to turn them into a mini Shia republic.
(h/t Bob Reed)
Comment by TheGeezer on 2/3 @ 10:06 am #
Is this still Bush’s fault?
Comment by Pablo on 2/3 @ 10:14 am #
No, NPR reported this on Obama’s watch. All praise and glory be to Baracky!
Comment by Bob Reed on 2/3 @ 10:14 am #
Man…
Those predator drones deliver those AQ pink slips with, ahem, deadly accuracy…
It must really suck being fired by a “Hellfire” missle…
I know…I know…
Comment by Techie on 2/3 @ 10:21 am #
I thought killing terrorists only created more of them? So, now AQ will have 3-4 “No.3s”.
We’ll destroy them through bureaucratic overkill.
Comment by Pablo on 2/3 @ 10:30 am #
Jihad? We’ll talk them out of it!
Comment by Bob Reed on 2/3 @ 10:31 am #
All these numbered folks makes it sound like either a game of “Stratego” or an episode of “The Prisoner”…
Comment by Joe on 2/3 @ 10:34 am #
Don’t worry, Pelosi will provide extended unemployment benefits.
Comment by Sdferr on 2/3 @ 10:35 am #
While I cheer every time I hear tell of another Predator strike in Pakistan, I cheer louder when I hear of a successful election held in Iraq. We’ve got to do both though, one of the two simply isn’t enough. In the end however, overthrowing tyranny and helping backward nations toward better governance is by far the greater accomplishment, by far the more effective means to put an end to the jihadi dream of domination. Pres. Bush understood that. So far, Pres. Obama appears not to. I hope he will learn soon, admit his error and drop his pusillanimous behavior toward Pres. Bush.
Comment by Joe on 2/3 @ 10:35 am #
Roger Simon must be behind this. Ruthless bastard! Oh wait, wrong thread!
Comment by Blind Howling Moonbat on 2/3 @ 10:40 am #
CIA-directed airstrikes against al-Qaida leaders and facilities in Pakistan ….
What did Pakistan ever do to us? Who authorized the use of force against a sovereign nation?
CIA? CIA?
THIS CANNOT BE TOLERATED! NO UNITARY EXECUTIVE! BUSH MUST BE STO…….
Oh, um, nevermind…..
Comment by Bob Reed on 2/3 @ 10:41 am #
I agree Sdferr,
Did you see this yet?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/03/comment-iraq-elections
I hope the leg is feeling better today, and every day to follow…
Comment by alppuccino on 2/3 @ 10:44 am #
Did you see this yet?
These elections. They’re a fad.
Comment by Sdferr on 2/3 @ 10:50 am #
Thanks for that link Bob (I hadn’t seen it) and the wishes. I like this bit from Shawcross especially
Comment by B Moe on 2/3 @ 10:57 am #
Apparently hope and change stops at the border, Sdferr.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/3 @ 11:02 am #
We’re such a cool country what produced a democracy in the Middle East of all freaking places. You know who rocks? Bush. What a gift to the world, this man.
Comment by happyfeet on 2/3 @ 11:04 am #
He’s from Texas, you know. We’re kinda proud of that.
Comment by Dan Collins on 2/3 @ 11:05 am #
Now that Obama’s in office, maybe an American will be considered for a Nobel Prize–in literature.
Comment by Loren Heal on 2/3 @ 11:07 am #
Now that the strong-man al-Maliki has strengthened his grip on power, isn’t it time to partition Iraq into three States that can peacefully coexist?
Comment by Pablo on 2/3 @ 11:13 am #
Now that the strong man Obama has strengthed his grip on power, isn’t it time to partition America into 50 states that can peacefully co-exist?
Huh. It sounds stupid both ways.
Comment by nikkolai on 2/3 @ 11:20 am #
I don’t think Obambi has strengthened his grip on anything.
Comment by N. O'Brain on 2/3 @ 11:27 am #
I blame Bush!
Comment by N. O'Brain on 2/3 @ 11:29 am #
Notice no troll comments.
Wonder why?
Comment by Techie on 2/3 @ 11:50 am #
Dunno, go over to the Ice storm thread and ask them.
Comment by Sdferr on 2/3 @ 11:53 am #
This movie, “The Third Jihad” (I ran into at Gateway) is interesting background material. Watch it. Here is Third Jihad’s website.
Comment by Techie on 2/3 @ 12:19 pm #
I was told that the dumb Iraqis would only vote for hard-line Islamic extremists in any elections!!!11!!!
It’s almost as if they enjoy having the boot removed from their collective throats for a bit.
Comment by MAJ (P) John on 2/3 @ 12:33 pm #
Alphie assured us that we had turned over Iraq to the Sharia parties, and to al-Sadr.
Gee, wrong again was he?
I won’t gloat, ’cause I had only a very little to do with all this. I am going to proclaim that the people in Basrah I know are F&$%ing heroes and alot more clear thinking than your average low-information NPR type would admit back before January 21, 2009.
Comment by Obstreperous Infidel on 2/3 @ 12:33 pm #
Color me (Fuck you Obamatons!) pleasantly surprised…again. I have to admit, that I wasn’t for the escalation in Iraq, well, because I didn’t think the Iraqis would take to any style of democracy. Now, I completely understandd the argument, that was put forth by pro escalation supports that one of the advantages of Iraq was its well educated and secular (for an Arab country) population. They would “take” to democracy much more so than the other more back wood countries. I think this argument is bearing fruit.
Comment by Sdferr on 2/3 @ 12:37 pm #
How much hope do you hold out for Pres. Obama coming to understand this strategy as you do OI? Do you think he can set aside his preconceptual scheme long enough to let it sink in?
Comment by Obstreperous Infidel on 2/3 @ 12:44 pm #
Sdferr, No. I had little invested in my thoughts. They were just one citizen’s thoughts and readings of the situation. O!bama has his nut root nation to pacify. Plus, the BDS is strong with that one, and I don’t think he has the capacity for reflection and/or admission of being wrong. A narcissist that one is.
Comment by Mikey NTH on 2/3 @ 12:48 pm #
At this rate Al qaeda is going to be lead by grade school crossing guards.
Comment by mcgruder on 2/3 @ 12:54 pm #
good news, in so far as it true.
i cover(ed) anti-terror finance and issues for my paper and magazine, and some of this is little more than strategically placed psy-ops.
which doesnt mean it is true–it almost certainly is in some ways, as we have been killing many of these sons of whores–but we have been ready to write the AQ obituary for years now.
what happens is that after months of digging, you get a call back from someone IN THE KNOW who gives you this on background and gives up someone in the program wholl confirm off the record…and they in a sense reiterate what you already know and have heard….
we want AQ and its buds in the ISI to know that we, despite a less aggressive new potus, are willing to kill them in pakistan regardless of paki anger.
everything else is just everything else.
Comment by Sdferr on 2/3 @ 1:12 pm #
Powerline linked this highly critical Frank Gaffney op-ed in the WashTimes. Pres. Obama’s strategic thinking can be crucial. He owes it to himself and everyone else to get it right. I hold out hope he can do so but the early signs are troubling at best.
Comment by Dan Collins on 2/3 @ 1:14 pm #
mcgruder, you said you wrote a piece on PJM, right? Would you be willing to give some background to the BreitbartTV people?
Comment by mcgruder on 2/3 @ 1:25 pm #
Dan,
sure. for legal reasons i need to keep name out of it, because of what my contract entails. im a pretty “out [classic liberal]” so its not a political thing…who do i contact, or who should contact me…
Comment by Dan Collins on 2/3 @ 1:28 pm #
If you want me to, email me at vermontaigne-at-gmail-dot-com and I’ll pass your address along to them for the background. That way they can look at your article and have a sense of what they might discuss when they tackle the story this afternoon, and have a chance to clarify anything.
Comment by Ric Locke on 2/3 @ 2:48 pm #
mcgruder, I hope you, at least, understand that the Surge didn’t work.
That is, it didn’t work in the way it’s currently understood — as in, send in American troops to kick butt and not bother to take names, and things turn around. The Surge would have been useless without the “Awakenings” — and, in fact, it was waiting for the Awakenings that took so much time and lost so much approval for the war.
A “Surge” as presently understood won’t work in Afghanistan. Adding troops to Afghanistan is a useless exercise, except to the extent they can help cover the present cohort’s behinds and cut down on useless US combat deaths. There has to be an Awakening-equivalent first.
Regards,
Ric
Comment by Dan Collins on 2/3 @ 4:54 pm #
It’s up already: http://www.breitbart.tv/?cat=49
Comment by MAJ (P) John on 2/3 @ 5:09 pm #
Ric,
There cannot and will not be an Iraqi style Awakening in Afghanistan, however. Provinces like Parwan and Panjshir were “awake” long before we got there (see “Northern Alliance” and Ahmad Shah Masood). Places like Zabol or Khandahar are going to take much more time and effort to get right.
Once Anbar turned, and the rest of Iraq noticed, it accelerated. The poor Afghans are too decentralized – for lack of a better term – to have anything spread quickly. What happens in Farah may not ever been known in Badakhshah. Herat won’t look to Spin Boldak for what’s goin’ on…
So you are correct, but should possibly add a dash more sour into your assessment.
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